On August 27th, the company officially fell into the liquidation period of delisting, and will formally wave goodbye to A shares after 30 trading days. Before leaving his job, the young eagle handed in the last interim report on the evening of 26th, with a net loss of 65.438+05.65438+08 billion yuan in the first half of the year and a loss of 774 million yuan in the same period last year.
This is not a case. Several listed livestock and poultry breeding companies are the same as water, but their money is concentrated on chickens, ducks and cows. In the first half of the year, the performance of several pig breeding enterprises with the largest share price increase either declined or lost money.
Among them, the industry leader Shi Wen's net profit increased by 50.76% in the first half of the year, and the net profit decreased by 28.32% after deduction, while Mu Yuan lost 65.438+56 billion yuan, down 97.95% year-on-year.
You know, except for the young eagle with its own problems, the sales of other pigs increased significantly in the first half of the year, and the price of live pigs in the same period was higher than that in the same period of 20 18. What happened to the whole industry?
Sales? Weight loss pig?
In the pig industry classified by Wind, * * * has 22 listed companies, of which 8 have increased by more than 100% this year. It is not an exaggeration to call it the strongest outlet of the year.
However, the market has not fulfilled the performance improvement brought by the increase in pig prices.
The business model of aquaculture enterprises is not complicated, but the relationship between price and quantity.
Look at the price first. According to the data provided by Baichuan Fu Ying on 27th, February and March of this year were the low points of domestic pig prices, which once hit the low point of 13 yuan/kg, and remained at around 15 yuan/kg at the end of May, and began to rise after entering June.
The above price is obviously higher than the same period of 20 18. According to historical data of Zhuochuang's financial pressure, the national hog price peaked in February that year, which was about 12.5 yuan/kg, and once fell to 10.5 yuan/kg in May that year. In contrast, the average selling price of 20 19 in the first half of the year is undoubtedly higher.
Let's look at the quantity. Wen's shares sold commercial pigs 1 1774000 in the first half of the year, up13.69% year-on-year; Mu Yuan sold 58 1.50 million pigs in the first half of the year, compared with 4.744 million pigs in the same period last year.
The product price and sales volume are both higher than 20 18. Why do pig-raising enterprises still experience the aforementioned performance decline and loss?
? At the beginning of June, affected by the epidemic, the problem pigs were sold all over the country, and the selling efforts slowed down obviously in the second half of the year. ? Guo Dandan, an analyst of Zhuochuang Information Pig Industry, said on the 27th.
The direct impact of this is that pigs have been sold in advance when they fail to rise to the conventional slaughter weight 1 10 kg, and pigs of 70 kg and 80 kg have become very common.
A person in the pig industry in Shandong said? 120kg and 130kg pigs are less. Now, the greater the weight, the higher the price. For example, 100kg pigs can be sold for 29.4 yuan per kilogram, 120kg pigs can be sold to 30 yuan, and heavier pigs can be sold for 30.2 yuan. ?
Therefore, it is very confusing to look at the pig sales data of listed companies alone. Boss? The plan sales went up, but because it was all? A miniature version? Live pig, press? Tons? The total weight of the instrument has been reduced.
Another variable is the price.
? Previously, the cost of live pigs was mainly composed of breeding costs, and the industry average level was around 12 yuan/kg. Some epidemic prevention expenses will be increased this year. ? Guo Dandan said that according to our investigation, the average cost of live pigs in China is about 15 yuan/kg.
Combined with the above data, it is not difficult to see that the price of live pigs once fell below 15 yuan/kg around the Spring Festival this year, and it was not until June that the price of live pigs fell back. A wave of sharp rises began to appear.
The feedback to the financial report is that pig breeding enterprises are below the break-even line in the first quarter, and break-even in the first half of the second quarter. What about the second half? Gradually profitable.
Raising pigs is obviously not as profitable as expected, at least in the first half of the year.
Make up the quantity at a price? The per capita profit exceeds 1000 pounds.
? It is expected that the amount of slaughter in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the first half. ? 27, China crab award-winning research report said. Muyuan shares rose 9.85% that day.
Why can it rise sharply? Because of the increase in pig prices since June, the profitability of aquaculture enterprises has become much simpler.
The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned that the current cost of live pigs is about 15 yuan/kg, and the price has reached 28 yuan per kg, and some areas even broke 30 yuan.
According to the standard slaughter weight 1 10 kg, the gross profit of each pig has reached 1430 yuan to 1650 yuan.
The key point is, after the centralized sales of problem pigs in the first half of the year, can pig-raising enterprises still ensure that there are sufficient and stable pigs for sale in the second half of the year?
Judging from the current situation, it is difficult for enterprises to maintain the sales scale in the first half of the year.
The key point is that in the first half of the year, all pig breeding enterprises concentrated on selling because of the epidemic situation, which made the stock of pigs drop sharply.
According to Zhuo Chuang information research, by the end of July, the loss of live pigs in China was close to 60%, and the losses in Fujian, Jiangsu, Anhui and Guangdong markets exceeded 70%. This is also the main reason why the price of live pigs in Guangxi rose by 60% in a single month.
For all kinds of aquaculture enterprises, will they fall into the dilemma of no pigs to sell in the second half of the year?
? Only large-scale aquaculture enterprises can survive. Recently, the sales frequency of some enterprises has declined. For example, they used to sell 1000 head a day, but now they sell it once every two or three days. ? Guo Dandan told reporters.
On the 27th, people from the securities department of Muyuan Stock Exchange also claimed that the above-mentioned output in the first half of the year was higher than expected, which was a pre-judgment made by the brokers themselves, not a gift from the company.
A person from a leading pig breeding enterprise in South China said that in the second half of the year, the sales volume will gradually decrease, and the company's main work will focus on increasing production and increasing production, such as trying to start the production capacity stopped due to the epidemic. ?
However, it is unrealistic to increase donations in a short time, which is limited by objective laws.
The above-mentioned aquaculture enterprises also pointed out that in order to cooperate with epidemic prevention, the trans-regional transportation of pig seedlings in the early stage was not smooth enough, and potato seedlings could not be sold in time in some areas, and the number of seedlings was also limited.
? There is a conduction period, five to six months. Guangdong aquaculture enterprises will take the initiative to eliminate it after the Spring Festival, and it will take time to gradually increase donations. ? He pointed out.
It is also known that the price of piglets in the market has risen to 1000 yuan/head, and the supply is relatively small, so the enthusiasm of farmers is not high.
The good news is that the stock of sows in some leading industries has begun to bottom out, and efforts are being made to expand production capacity.
Back to the management of listed companies, as long as the price of live pigs can remain high, it can offset the impact of the decline in sales in the second half of the year.
Most people interviewed by the reporter are relatively optimistic.