1. Stimulated by market rumors 1 China CPI's lower-than-expected year-on-year increase, the spot market rose again in volume on Monday, and all sectors of the spot market strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 2,900 points in intraday trading, but fell slightly before closing, and the trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 300 billion, which obviously released the market's long-term motivation.

2. In June this year, the CPI data of 5438+ 10 will be lower than the original rumor, which will bring favorable long-term information to the market: First, the regulatory policy will not be overweight, which will help improve the expectations of various funds for the future funds of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets; Second, the expectation of rising prices of products such as resource stocks tends to be optimistic.

3. Weight adjustment: CPI data in June 65438+ 10 may be lower than expected.

4. The media said that the regulatory authorities plan to raise the interest rate of the second home loan on a pilot basis.

The American stock market closed mixed on Monday. The tension in the Middle East caused the Brent crude oil futures contract in the North Sea to rise to a two-year high, so the energy sector generally climbed. Wal-Mart's stock rating was downgraded, dragging down the Dow.

6. Paying attention to the macroeconomic data released today, especially whether the inflation data meets or is lower than expected, will obviously be beneficial to the operation of the stock index.

Rubber:

1. After the price rises, the policy pressure is increasing.

2. The increase of 2.SICOM, No.638, No.20, No.575 and No.20 slowed down, but the price difference between the two kinds of rubber continued to widen, reflecting that the current market is dominated by speculation.

In March and June, natural rubber was imported 1.5 million tons, down 1.4% year-on-year.

4.CPI and other data were released today.

5. The international market is closed. Historically, after mid-February, the market was basically volatile.

Summary: SICOM continued to rise, but the increase on the 20th was limited. Pay attention to the callback, and the risk above will increase.

Metal:

1, LME copper sold124,000 lots, spot price increased by B65438+C20.5 in three months, inventory increased by 5,050 tons, cancelled warehouse receipt increased by 300 tons to 9,925 tons, aluminum sold by 233,000 lots, C2 1.0, and inventory decreased by 4,725 tons. The position of Shanghai Copper increased by 1 1,000 lots.

2. Spot on the previous trading day: the price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai today is 120 yuan/ton, the transaction price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 74150-74,250 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 74,250-74,400 yuan/ton. On the last trading day before delivery, copper premium was traded, but the price difference between 1 102 contract and 1 103 contract was higher than that in 600 yuan, which led some holders to wait and see. Because the price difference between near and far months is nearly 2000 yuan, there are still people in the market who actively arbitrage copper. Domestic copper is the main product in the market. Spot transaction price of Shanghai aluminum16780-16810 yuan/ton, discount 20 yuan/ton water, low iron aluminum 16860- 16900 yuan/ton, and Wuxi spot transaction price/kloc-0. Today, Shanghai Aluminum rebounded quickly after the opening at the beginning of the month, and then it was under pressure to consolidate below the moving average. Traders near the monthly delivery are active, the aluminum market is abundant, the downstream and middlemen are depressed, the aluminum price remains slightly discounted, and the market turnover is light. Shanghai zinc fluctuated at a high level, and the spot market gradually recovered from the festive atmosphere. The current zinc transaction on No.0 18800- 18830 yuan/ton is about 800 yuan/ton of 1005 contract. When the market is low in early trading 18780 yuan/ton, 65438+.

3. Hindalco Industries, India's second largest copper producer, said that the rise in copper prices had a "negative impact" on the demand for refined copper in the domestic wire and cable industry.

4.Rusal said that an ETF backed by spot aluminum may be listed in the UK soon.

5. Weatherly Company of the United Kingdom said that 20% of the expected copper production in1August had been sold for hedging.

In 6.20 10, the copper output of Escondida mine decreased 1% to 108670 1 ton.

From June+10/October in 7.5438, the refined copper output in Kazakhstan was 297 13 tons, up by 4.5% year-on-year.

8. Russia plans to invest $3 billion to build a nickel smelter on the Indonesian island of Halmarch.

Conclusion: The trend of the fund is still very strong, but the increase is large, and domestic consumption has not started obviously, so it is necessary to be cautious to chase after the increase.

Steel:

1, the domestic construction steel market price keeps rising. The continuous rise of prices mainly depends on the price of steel mills and the caring attitude of merchants. The prices of major steel mills continued to rise, which promoted the price increase. However, some areas are affected by inventory pressure. At present, the overall mentality of the market is still good, and some businesses are cautious about the trend of the rest of February and think that the variables are large.

In 2.20 10, coking coal imports increased by 37%, reaching 47.27 million tons.

3.65438+10,200 tons of steel were exported, an increase of 270,000 tons over June last year and an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year. In June 5438+ 10, 68.97 million tons of iron ore were imported, an increase of10.89 million tons compared with June 5438+February last year, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9%.

4.WISCO bought 3.5 million tons of BHP Billiton iron ore this year. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, Jiuquan Iron and Steel Group strives to achieve steel production capacity of more than130,000 tons. Cheng Gang took the lead in eliminating HRB335 rebar in China.

5. Steel prices in Southeast Asia continued to rise, with an increase of 9% compared with before the Spring Festival.

6. Shanghai Grade III rebar 4960(+ 10), wire rod 4920(+ 10), 4.75 hot-rolled coil 4860(-20), Qingdao 63% Indian ore wet ton 1350(+ 10)

Summary: The contradiction of rebar will be a long-short contest after the rising cost and the substantial increase in inventory.

Gold:

1. As the market is worried that the riots in Egypt may spread to the whole Arab world, the price of gold rose, while the price of silver rose by 2%, benefiting from strong industrial demand driven by signs of economic improvement.

2. The White House said that the US budget of 20 12 started the deficit reduction plan of 1. 1 trillion US dollars, which indicated that the US began to deal with the fiscal deficit and the US dollar would benefit from it.

3. The European Central Bank said that the European Central Bank will never be soft when dealing with inflation. Novotny's remarks show that price pressure is still the focus of the European Central Bank.

4. The yield difference between peripheral countries in the euro zone and German government bonds widened, and the European debt problem returned to the horizon. In addition, some German lawmakers expressed their opposition to expanding the size of the euro zone rescue fund, and the prospect of the European debt problem was bleak.

5.SPDR gold ETF fund is maintained at 1225.526 tons; Buckley Silver ETF Fund increased its silver holdings by 22.78 tons to 104 1 1.23 tons. New york Stock Exchange maintains the platinum ETF fund at 452,000 ounces and the palladium ETF fund at1172,300 ounces.

6. The yield of US 10-year treasury bonds is basically unchanged; The exchange rate of gold and silver continued to drop to 44.6. Shanghai gold futures have a premium of 5 yuan over London gold. Silver 1 year lending rate continues to be -0.04%, and silver is still reflected in the premium in recent months. The lending rate of gold is 0.53%.

7. UBS Group AG (UBS Group AG) said that market rumors said that the consumer price index (CPI) of China in June 5438+ 10 would be lower than expected. If the rumors come true, it will suppress gold in the short term.

Soybean oil:

1, Dalian pandou futures followed the consolidation of American beans, and the enthusiasm for doing more funds remained high. Soybean 5972 lots, soybean 3 1 188 lots, soybean oil 16438 lots, palm oil 5932 lots and vegetable oil 372 lots. The oil near Qiangao is under pressure, and the price difference is too small, which may not be conducive to continuing to rise. In terms of soybean meal, feed enterprises have stocking demand, and the late arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong is small, the cost of arrival in Hong Kong is rising, the operating rate of oil plants is declining, and spot soybean meal has been started. In the evening, CBOT soybean was estimated by USDA to be 20 1 1, which was higher than the market expectation, and profit-taking put pressure on the price.

2. According to the price of electronic disk at three o'clock in the afternoon, the spot crush profit of soybean is -0.2%, the crush profit of imported soybean in May is -0.65, and the crush profit in September is1.3%; 1 month crushing profit of 4.5%. The spot import loss of soybean oil was 42 1, the loss of soybean oil in May was 233, and the loss of soybean oil in September was 38. Palm oil spot import loss 1 145, import loss of 479 in May and import loss of 233 in September.

3. The spot price of palm oil in Guangzhou Port is10150 (+0); The spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Dachang 10650 (-50), the transaction was light; The spot price of 43-degree protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3600 (-40), and the first-line transaction is 3500. The spot price of Nantong rapeseed oil is 10300(+0). The delivery price of imported soybeans in Qingdao Port is 4350 (+0).

4. Domestic port palm oil inventory is 33.8 million tons (+1.7), and domestic port soybean inventory is 62.870 million tons (+141). The inventory consumption rate of palm oil and soybean is relatively low.

5. Customs: In June and October, China imported 5140,000 tons of soybeans, down 5.3% from the previous month. In June, China imported 665,438+ 100000 tons of edible oil and 438+10 month, down 23% from the previous month.

6. The 200 yuan/ton of imported beans is lower than that of domestic beans.

7. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, but it is expected that rainfall will slow down the harvest progress. Safras reported a harvest of 4.9%, compared with 65,438+02% in the same period last year, with an average of 6.3%.

8. The United States Department of Agriculture predicts that the soybean planting area in the United States will increase to 78 million acres, and the output will increase from 3.329 billion bushels in 20 10 to 3.355 billion bushels.

9.USDA: The export inspection of US soybeans in the latest week was 3,382.3, and the market forecast range was (3,000-4,200). Last week, it was 4,403.8, and the unit was Wanpu.

10. The number of registered warehouse receipts is as follows: soybean oil 256 1 lot (+0), soybean 0/lot (+0), soybean meal 4786 (+0) and rapeseed oil 14588(+0).

Spot enterprises such as 1 1, COFCO and other soybean meal increased by 65 17 lots, soybean increased by 179 1 lot, palm oil and rapeseed oil increased by191lot.

12, American commodity funds sold 7000 lots of soybeans, 3000 lots of soybean oil, 0/000 lots of soybean meal/kloc-0, 3000 lots of wheat and 7000 lots of corn.

13, the Malaysian market is closed today.

Summary: Soybean gains are basically established. Recently, there are signs that American soybeans are facing seasonal pressure (net sales of American soybeans slowed down sharply, CBOT soybeans weakened from March to July, and the premium of Brazilian soybean oil turned from positive to negative). If you call back, it is a good opportunity to buy. The battle for planting area is about to start, and soybean is underestimated or lost in area relative to corn and cotton.

PTA:

1, crude oil WTI to 84.81(-0.77); Naphtha to 865(-7), MX to 1048(-5).

2. Asian PX reached 1635(-3) USD, equivalent to PTA cost of 9772.36 yuan/ton.

3. Spot PTA11690 (-110) for inner panel, production of outer panel 1462(-8), import cost12/26.

4. The operating rate of 4.PTA plant is 99.0(+0)%, and that of downstream polyester is 84.3(-0)%.

5. The production and sales of polyester filament in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are still in the doldrums, with most factories accounting for 20-30%, some slightly higher than 50-70%, and some better than others. The price of short silk continues to rise 100 yuan, and the price of filament is mainly stable.

6. The total turnover of fabric market in China Textile City is 68 million (+18) meters, of which 56 million (+15) meters are chemical fiber fabrics.

7.PTA inventory: 0-4 days for PTA plant and 0/0-20 days for polyester plant.

Summary: The domestic high inventory pressure of crude oil WTI fell to a two-month low, and the downstream petrochemical products also fell slightly. However, in the case that the fundamentals of upstream and downstream are relatively stable, PTA will not have much room to fall, and after the recent sharp drop in crude oil, the recovery of downstream demand is slightly slow, so PTA may mainly shock and sort out the current price in the short term.

Cotton:

In June, the spot price of cotton in main producing areas was 5438+0, in June, 5438+04: 229 Xinjiang 30070(+ 162), 328 Hebei-Shandong-Henan 29666(+267), the southeast coast 298 15(+299) and the Yangtze River.

2.6 14, China cotton price index 297 15(+ 136), 1 level 3 1438(+ 169), level 2 30635 (+).

3. 14 clinched the deal with 12940(+4240), the order quantity was114220 (-3140), and the contract settlement price was1/kloc-.

On June 4 14, the total turnover in Zheng Mian was 957460(+36258), the total position was 45 1688 (+ 1068), and the contract settlement price was 32900 (-595) on 105.

On May 4, 5438, the price index of imported cotton SM reported 220.92 cents (0), M reported 2 17.54 cents (0) and SLM reported 2 14.5 1 cent (0). Today, the US CA M delivery price is 22 1. 19 cents/pound (0), the sliding tariff is 37 149 yuan/ton (0), and the 1% tariff is 36,868 yuan/ton (0).

6. 14 American cotton ICE 1 103 contract settlement price 186.05 cents (-3.92), 1 105 contract settlement price 183.06 cents (.

7. 14 American cotton ICE inventory 169803(+909).

On August 8th 14, the prices of downstream yarns CYC32, JC40S and TC45S reached 37,900 (+500), 45,800 (+400) and 30,970 (+300) respectively.

On June 4th, 9.65438, the total turnover of fabric market in China Textile City was 6,800 (+18) million meters, including cotton 12(+3) million meters.

Summary: The domestic spot price of cotton has risen, the all-cotton yarn market has risen steadily, with fewer transactions, the market bullish expectation has increased, and buyers and sellers have a strong wait-and-see mood. Long profit-taking led to a sharp drop in ice cotton; Zheng Mian CF 1 109' s high intensity dropped sharply yesterday, and it is possible to continue the callback in the short term. However, because the fundamental supply and demand situation has not changed much, in the case of strong demand, tight supply will still dominate the market, and rising will remain the main trend in the medium and long term.

LLDPE:

1, the spot price of LLDPE is stable, the market outlook is gradually driven upward, and futures will stagnate slightly under the pressure of high premium.

2.7042 The average ex-factory price of petrochemical company is 1 1256(+0), and the production cost of LLDPE for naphtha conversion is 10542(-32).

3. Average spot market price 1 1 187(-53). East China LLDPE spot price10800-1150, East China LLDPE Shanghai Secco enterprise price 1 1500(+0), Sinopec East China enterprise price1/000.

4. We solemnly report that the price of LLDPE imported from China's main ports in Southeast Asia is 14 10(+0), which is equivalent to the import cost of1347, while the average price of LLDPE imported from South Korea in Northeast Asia is 1455 USD, which is equivalent to the import cost of/kloc. The price of LLDPE imported from East China10900-11250 yuan/ton.

5. Crude oil will remain stable under the support of short-term fundamentals, and the current short-term adjustment decline is limited.

6. Downstream demand is weak in the short term, but it will gradually improve after the year. On the other hand, the spot price difference will widen again, and there will still be adjustment demand in the short term. The preliminary adjustment has been basically completed. When the spot price difference returns to the line of 500-600, there will be good buying value. At present, we mainly wait and see whether the spot will follow up. It is necessary to be cautious to chase high under the pattern of large premium.

Polyvinyl chloride:

1, the average price of PVC in Southeast Asia 104 1 USD (+0), which is equivalent to the domestic import duty-paid price of 8434.

2. The average price of East China ethylene method is 8225(+25), and that of East China calcium carbide method is 7925(+25).

3. The price difference between production and sales is 450(+25).

4. The price of calcium carbide in Central China is 3825(+0), and that in Northwest China is 3350(- 100). The production cost of calcium carbide manufacturers with lower cost is 746 1.

5. PVC by calcium carbide method: the market price of small factories in East China is 79 10-7920, and the market price of large factories in East China is 7920-7960; Ethylene PVC: the market price of low-end ethylene PVC in East China is 8050-8250, and the market price of high-end ethylene PVC in East China is 8240-8400.

6. Driven by the futures market, spot PVC prices generally rose slightly, which also supported futures prices to some extent. However, at present, the spot market is generally indifferent, and there is little room for spot prices to continue to rise. It is worth noting that although the quotation of downstream PVC has increased, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest production area was slightly loose yesterday, falling by 100 yuan. The market outlook should pay close attention to the price trend of calcium carbide. If it is lowered, it means that the cost support of PVC is weakened, and the spot market price correction may be larger, which will also dominate the futures price trend.

Fuel:

1, US crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Monday, due to high domestic inventories, and crude oil inventories to be announced last week are expected to rise; However, heating oil and gasoline have both increased by more than 2%. Brent crude oil rose 2. 14 USD, hitting a 28-month high. With the increasing tension in Iran, Yemen, Algeria and Bahrain, the market is worried that the situation will spread and lead to instability in oil-producing countries, while the European market is more sensitive to supply disruption.

2. The US natural gas futures price rose slightly by 0.4% on Monday, as the market bought on dips when the price fell to the low level since last year 10 165438+.

3. On Monday, London Brent crude oil (April) was higher than American WTI crude oil (down 2.35% in one month) 16.2%. The contract premium ratio of WTI crude oil in the next month and the current month is 3.98%(-0. 17%, changing month); Brent spot monthly discount of 0.32% (monthly discount). On Friday, the total position of WTI crude oil increased by 40,000 to 654.38+0.59 million (a record high), accompanied by a drop of 654.38+0.3% in crude oil.

4. On Monday, the monthly spread of naphtha in Asia fell to a four-month low of 2 (-1); The cracking spread -2.6 1(-0. 13) fell to a six-month low.

5. On Monday, South China Huangpu 180 was assessed as 47 10 yuan/ton (+10); East China Shanghai 180 appraisal 4680(+0), Zhoushan market 4665(+0).

6. On Monday, the high-sulfur slag in South China was valued at 465,438 yuan +075 yuan/ton (+0); East China domestic 250 appraisal 4550 (+0); Shandong pulp was identified as 4 150(+0).

7. Compared with Shanghai Fuel in May, Huangpu spot discounted water to 82 yuan (-2); The last warehouse receipt was 544,000 tons (-500), the second highest in history.

8. Institutional point of view, for reference only:

According to the report of Goldman Sachs (65438+1October 1 1), extreme weather conditions have led to a decline in demand in the United States and an increase in demand in Europe and China. At the same time, even if the inventory in other parts of the United States returns to a more normal level, the oversupply in the central region has also curbed WTI oil prices. It is estimated that the WTI crude oil futures price will rise to USD 65,438+005 per barrel at the end of 2065,438+065,438+0, and the average price in 2065,438+000 will be USD 65,438+000.

Summary: US WTI crude oil futures fell due to inventory problems, while refined oil and Brent crude oil both rose more than 2%. Asian naphtha cracking spread fell to a six-month low. South China 180 rose 10, East China 180 held steady, and Shandong pulp held steady; Shanghai fuel oil futures warehouse receipt is the second highest in history; The modification of contract quality standards will lead to the cancellation of old warehouse receipts, which will bring further pressure to the 20 1 1 fuel oil market. Goldman Sachs report (65438+1October 1 1) predicts that the crude oil futures price will rise to $0/05 per barrel at the end of 201/kloc-0.

White sugar:

1: Liuzhou middleman quoted 7355 yuan (-30); The contract closing price of Liuzhou Electronic Disk 10024 is RMB 7295(-45)/ton, and the contract closing price of1/054 is RMB 7439(-6 1)/ton;

The spot price in Liuzhou is -9(+34) yuan/ton higher than that in Zhengpan 1 105, and that in Kunming is-105+049 (+69) yuan/ton higher than that in Zhengpan 165438. Liuzhou May-Tang Zheng May =75(+3) yuan, Kunming May-Tang Zheng May =-73(+5) yuan;

Entering the off-season of consumption, but the expected reduction of production exists, and the inventory in the sales area is low; There have been rumors of dumping recently;

The number of warehouse receipts registered in the previous trading day was 4580(+635), and the effective forecast was 503 (-565);

2. By the end of 65438+February, the cumulative sugar production in China was 2,942,200 tons, down 4.5% year-on-year; Cumulative sugar sales1690,400 tons, down 6.01%year-on-year; The sales rate of sugar was 57.45%, compared with 58.14% in the same period last year.

3.ICE raw sugar contract in March fell by 1.25% to 30.9 1 cent, Thailand imported sugar at a discount of 0.5(-0.2), the duty-paid import price was 7669 yuan/ton, the import loss was 3 14(-55) yuan, and the duty-paid import price of Brazilian sugar was 7976.

4. The sugar stocks in Egypt can be maintained until 10, and have not been affected by recent events;

5: In terms of long positions, Huatai increased its position by 465 1 lot, Wanda increased its position by 4057 lots, COFCO increased its position by 1.594 lots and Zhujiang reduced its position by 9937 lots; In terms of short positions, COFCO added 2,600 lots;

6: 10, there will be cooling weather again in the main producing areas, and the output in northern Guangxi may be less than expected; Guangxi sugar fair will be held on February 23rd, paying attention to the market of sugar fair;

Summary:

A: The response of the external market to the favorable situation is dull, and the further market is to be confirmed by the output of Brazil's new crop season;

B: Recently, the import loss has decreased, and there may be a wave of follow-up market before the sugar fair, with a limited height;

Corn:

1: The price of corn in North China generally rose slightly, with the flat cabin price of Dalian Port being RMB 2 1 10(+ 10) and Jinzhou Port being RMB 2 1 10(+ 10).

The contract premium of Dalian spot counter link 1 105 is-196(- 19) yuan/ton, and that of Changchun spot counter link11kloc-0/is-380. Dalian Commodity Exchange 1 199(+0) corn warehouse receipt;

In February, the duty-paid cost of CBOT corn was 27 14(+0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shenzhen and Hong Kong was 2220 yuan/ton;

The national average price of DDGS 1735(+0) yuan/ton, and the national average price of corn gluten meal is 4505(+75) yuan/ton;

The price difference between the contract of Dashangsuo 1 105 and the contract of JCCE 1 104 in Dalian designated warehouse 168(+9) yuan/ton; The price difference between the contract of Dashangsuo 1 109 and the contract of JCCE 1 108 of Dalian designated warehouse is 169(+ 19) yuan/ton.

2. The USDA's monthly supply and demand report in February lowered Argentina's corn production by 6.38%, and the overall ending inventory was lower than market expectations;

3. Indonesia will import 2 million tons of corn this year, and the estimated figure last year is 6.5438+0.5 million tons;

4. The price of grain purchasing and storage is low, and it is difficult to complete the task, and some traders keep the price down; The auction threshold of temporary storage corn is high, close to the directional sales model, and the guiding significance of price to the market is reduced;

5. In terms of bulls, Bohai increased 9,779 lots, Yide increased 9,363 lots, and Zheng Lu increased 570 1 lot; In terms of short positions, SDIC added 6483 lots and Galaxy added 3 1 15 lots; Recently, both long and short sides generally increased their positions;

Summary:

A: Global corn supply and demand are tightening;

B: the spot price has risen, and the current capital premium of the positive offer is high;

Early indica rice:

1: Recently, prices in various parts of Jiangxi have increased slightly, with the purchase price of Jiujiang in Jiangxi being RMB 2 100(+0) and Changsha being RMB 2 140(+0); Anhui Wuhu Rice Wholesale Market offers 2000(+0) yuan, Hubei zhijiang city Grain Bureau offers 2 160(+0) yuan, Xinyu Grain Bureau offers 2080(+0) yuan and Jiangxi Jishui Grain Bureau offers 2480(+0) yuan;

Registration warehouse receipt 7056(-704), effective forecast 239 (+54);

2. Japonica rice price: 2780(+0) yuan/ton in Harbin, 2900(+0) yuan/ton in Jilin and 2800(+0) yuan/ton in Nanjing; The price of mid-late rice is 2370 yuan/ton in Changsha, 2 yuan150 yuan/ton in Hefei and 2350 yuan/ton in Jiujiang.

3. Rice price: The following are ex-factory prices: Changsha early indica rice 3240(+0) yuan/ton, Jiujiang early indica rice 3320(+0) yuan/ton, Wuhan early indica rice 3200(+0) yuan/ton; Changsha late indica rice is 3640(+0) yuan/ton, Jiujiang late indica rice is 3620(+0) yuan/ton, and Wuhan late indica rice is 3400(+0) yuan/ton;

4. National stocks of early indica rice are sufficient; The minimum purchase price of the third-class early indica rice produced by 20 1 1 was increased from 50 kg 9 yuan to 102 yuan.