1, macro-control: "point gate" over-investment
For the economic development of China, the biggest influence in 2004 was macro-control. Due to over-investment in some industries, coal, electricity, oil and transportation are tense, which will directly affect the healthy development of China's economy. The central government noticed this phenomenon in time, carefully studied the reasons and took practical measures in a timely and effective manner. Macro-control can be said to be the unavoidable focus of major financial media this year, and it is also a common concern of people.
Feng, editor-in-chief of Economic Daily, made the following comments:
Macro-control is actually to implement the "five overall plans" put forward by the central government. The Central Committee and the State Council discovered this macro-control long ago and took decisive measures. Although it can't be said that if it is not regulated in time, today's economy will collapse or what? But what is certain is that without supervision, the economy cannot develop healthily and continuously. For example, the steel industry cannot develop indefinitely. If there is too much development, there may be a shortage of iron ore. As far as I know, China has 9 billion tons of iron ore resources, of which Liaoning accounts for 50%. What about his steel mill? It depends on imports. The import freight is expensive, and the exporting country wants to raise the price, so how much does it cost to smelt a ton of steel? This can be calculated. Your steel price is high, will it affect other prices, and the price increase is self-evident.
First of all, we must affirm that this macro-control is very effective, and most enterprises and regions feel better. There are several sets of figures to prove it: first, the annual GDP forecast may be 9%, or a little more than 9%; Fiscal revenue is expected to increase by 20%; According to relevant data, farmers' income increased by 1 1.4%, with a real increase of 6%. The number of new jobs in cities and towns may reach 9 million. Second, the investment in fixed assets in the whole society has dropped significantly. Compared with the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 15% in the first three quarters, and the growth rate of investment in steel and cement decreased by 65% and 43% respectively, which means that it decreased by more than half. Third, the retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to increase by 13%. As we all know, this year's import and export trade is likely to exceed 1. 1 trillion dollars, and the overall consumer price level has been controlled within 4%. In other words, the inflation and rising prices that people are worried about have not appeared.
These figures give people the impression that China's economy has maintained a momentum of rapid growth and good benefits. But this does not mean that our macro-control has ended, nor does it mean that we can settle for second best. The achievement of macro-control does not mean that macro-control has ended. As far as economic operation is concerned, macro-control is always a major topic.
I said that macro-control is a normal thing, just as we always have to live on the earth under gravity and find a balance when walking, but saying normal does not mean that as a specific word of macro-control, it will always be tight. With the continuous renewal of our market economy concept, especially the continuous improvement of our ability to control the socialist market economy, macro-control should always appear in our economic life. It's as if our road is ripe, we still have to find a way to go straight, although it may be inevitable to swing from side to side, and it won't be ups and downs in the end.
2. Focus on energy: solving the urgent need of burning "coal"
Some people say that 2004 was a year of "power shortage", but behind the power shortage, we saw a "coal shortage". According to the prediction of the Coal Industry Association, there will still be a shortage of 80 million tons of coal in China in 2005, and the tight supply situation will continue. What is the problem behind the phenomenon of coal shortage?
Bao Yueyang, editor-in-chief of China Economic Times, commented as follows:
From the coal industry itself, in recent years, investment is relatively small, production capacity growth is relatively slow, and new recoverable reserves are relatively small. Moreover, the production conditions of many coal mines are relatively poor, so since this year, as long as the coal supply is tight, coal production is relatively passive and it is not easy to adapt to the sudden increase in demand. It is not easy for you to increase its coal production. Because its foundation is already weak, it can be said that this aspect is not very important. The main reason is that the high growth of the national economy has brought about a substantial increase in the demand for coal. Therefore, the main reason of coal shortage is foreign coal, especially electricity shortage. Electricity consumes 50%-60% of coal production. The increase of electricity this year exceeds 10%, which will inevitably lead to a large demand for coal. However, when this demand increases, the price of coal will increase. Because the market demand has increased, according to the laws of market and value, this price should reflect such changes. However, from the perspective of power companies, they are unwilling to bear the factor of rising coal prices, because coal prices in our country have been liberalized and regulated by the market. This electricity price has not been liberalized and is regulated by the government.
From last year to this year, the contradiction between coal and electricity prices has been very prominent. This contradiction was mediated by the central government. Although it has eased, it has not fundamentally solved the problem.
Fundamentally speaking, the contradiction between coal supply and demand depends on the local overheating and cooling of the national economy, which is the most fundamental. Technically, this contradiction between coal and electricity is a very important joint here. Experts on the contradiction between coal and electricity have different suggestions, some of which are coal-electricity price linkage. That is, when coal prices rise, electricity prices will rise. As for the ratio, there is a very complicated price system, and many coal and electricity prices are being discussed now or have entered the policy field of vision. I think it basically depends on the market-oriented reform of electricity. After the completion of this reform, the electricity price can basically reflect the law of supply and demand, so that no matter whether the coal price rises or falls, it can also get a corresponding response on the electricity price. In the long run, fundamentally, we should rely on such a mechanism. In the short term, we should rely on macro-control. Macro-control can curb the signs of overheating, reduce demand, water the overheated economy and cool down. After the macro-economy reaches a healthy and sustainable state, the coal industry can also restore the balance between supply and demand.
3. Steel deficiency heat: return to investment rationality.
A very important feature of the development of iron and steel industry in 2004 is the price change. The price was V-shaped, climbing at the beginning of the year, and began to decline at the end of May, and then came up again at the end of June. This V-shape reflects the inevitability of the development of iron and steel enterprises in China today, from blind investment to return to rationality.
Ai Feng, former editor-in-chief of Economic Daily, commented as follows:
Let's talk about the rise at the beginning of the year. In fact, the rise in steel prices did not begin at the beginning of this year, but probably began in 2002. Gradually increase, probably reaching the highest point at the beginning of this year. Why is this happening? The most basic reason is economic pull. In the economic life of our country, the demand for steel is increasing rapidly, and the rapidly increasing demand is the role of two industries: one is real estate, because building a house requires a lot of steel; Another industry is automobile, and the development of these two industries has boosted the demand for steel. In this sense, although the price increase can't be said to be a good thing, it is a good sign. Because in the past, a construction industry and an automobile industry in our country did not form a pillar industry. In recent years, reforms, especially housing reform, housing commercialization and housing credit, have promoted the development of the housing industry, which has led to the great development of the steel industry.
I think this is a necessity. It fell in the middle. Why did it fall? This is the result of macro-control. Because the price of steel is very high, it has caused investment fever. Everyone wants to make money. According to the relatively high price at that time, the profit of steel can reach at least 12%, and some may reach 22%. This high profit has attracted a lot of social funds, resulting in overheated investment. If all these investment projects are completed, it is estimated that the steelmaking capacity will increase by at least 654.38+0.5 billion tons. Our original production capacity was 365.438 billion tons, and 365.438 billion tons plus 65.438 billion tons was 460 million tons. This production capacity far exceeds our actual demand, so we feel that an investment is overheated. If we turn it into a project and put it into production, there will be great problems in the future. In addition to the problem of quantity, there is also a qualitative problem, that is to say, many investment projects are not high-tech and do not meet the strict requirements of environmental pollution and technical level. In this case, the quantity of steel industry will decline when it goes up, especially it will occupy a lot of land. Some construction projects are mainly bank funds. Once something goes wrong, the risk lies in the bank, so the state has taken macro-control measures.
4. Increase grain output: stable agriculture leads to the world.
4. Increase food production: If agriculture is stable, the world will be safe.
Driven by the preferential policies such as the "No.1 Document" of the Central Committee, China's grain production has undergone gratifying changes this year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of summer grain this year increased by 4.8% compared with the same period of last year, and the production situation of autumn grain is also optimistic. It is estimated that the total grain output of China will reach the scheduled 9 1000 billion Jin this year. This means that the grain output in China will end the continuous decline since 1998. The implementation of measures such as agricultural tax reduction and exemption, direct grain subsidy and protective price has enabled farmers to see the benefits brought by growing grain. However, since the fourth quarter of last year, food prices have shown a rare upward trend in recent years, and people are very concerned about whether there is more or less food. It even sparked a discussion about food safety.
Wang Haizheng, editor-in-chief of Economic Information Daily, made the following comments:
China's grain production this year has two points worthy of attention, one is to increase production, and the other is to increase prices, which are also two issues that everyone cares about. We think that increasing production is certainly a good thing. Then, while increasing production, price changes will directly affect the grain output next year and beyond. Judging from the absolute level of food prices, it can't be said that food prices are very high, because after food prices rise, they actually affect two aspects, on the one hand, food producers, on the other hand, consumers, mainly urban residents. From the perspective of urban residents, the rise in food prices should not have much impact on most urban residents. In other words, from the perspective of their survival and life, this influence can be ignored.
Why aren't food prices rising so high now? I want to say a figure, that is, before the reform and opening up, the grain price at that time was basically stable and at a low level. Judging from the most familiar standard powder, the price in Beijing at that time was18.51kg. Now the price of standard powder has increased by about 8 times, but from the disposable income of urban households to 1978 to 2003, it has increased by about 19 times. So relative to such a figure, I think the grain price should be within a reasonable range for urban residents. For so many years, the grain price has not exceeded the price increase level.
The central policy supports agriculture, which is something that every country does, and it is normal internationally, and the rules of the WTO are also allowed. With so many policies adopted this year, our support is indeed much greater than in the past, but there is still room. On the other hand, space is only limited by policy support and will not depend on policy support indefinitely. Only relying on policy support, our grain production will not have a long-term and lasting development.
To ensure the sustained growth of agriculture and farmers' income, one is the improvement of agricultural production mode, and the other is the extension of agricultural industrial chain to industry. Let me talk about the improvement of agricultural production methods first. The improvement of agricultural production mode in China mainly benefits from modernization and marketization. What about modernization? Generally speaking, it is to improve the content of science and technology and apply science and technology to agriculture. This is definitely a very important factor. For example, seeds, fertilizers and various planting methods, including mechanization, are of course very helpful to agricultural production. In addition to modernization, the second factor is marketization, which is mainly to organize agricultural production by means of market economy. There are some good signs or trends in this regard. There is a place in Heilongjiang, whose agricultural cooperative organization is not in the past sense, but in the market sense, which has developed rapidly and actually promoted the professional division of labor within agriculture.
5. New problems in development.
The upsurge of migrant workers in the 1980s made us lament the abundant labor force in China for countless times, but since this spring, some places in China have fallen into the embarrassing situation of "lack of jobs". Many media have asked: Why has the tide of migrant workers lasted for more than ten years turned into a shortage of migrant workers? Is it because the rapid economic development makes the supply of rural surplus labor insufficient? Or is it because with the improvement of rural life and the increase of employment opportunities, farmers have turned their backs on working in cities?
Li He, editor-in-chief of Economic Observer, commented as follows:
The word "shortage of migrant workers" itself may not be accurate. This year, it happened in some economically developed provinces, where there was a shortage of low-skilled labor. I think this may be a more accurate description. On the whole, the shortage of migrant workers should not be a global problem, but a local problem, which is very related to the overall economic situation this year. For example, this year's grain harvest, food prices will rise even more this year, and farmers' income will increase faster. He may choose to say whether it is better for me to farm at home. This is one reason. In addition, the price increase in this city is faster than in previous years. This year, the consumer price index of the city will be around 4%, so the cost of migrant workers will be higher.
In addition, in the process of our economic development, especially the export-oriented economy, there may still be some gaps in whether the wages of migrant workers really reflect the cost of labor and whether the prices are distorted, including whether the conditions of labor security have really reached the level required by the state. I think these reasons may have led to the shortage of migrant workers in some areas. But on the whole, the continuous citizenization of migrant workers in China, or the process from farmers to workers, should be said to be a long process, which will not end at once, nor will there be a very large-scale and extensive labor shortage at once.
Although we say that the impact of this incident itself cannot be said to be global, the media or scholars are very concerned because this incident has released a very strong signal. Our labor price is only 1/4 in Malaysia, which is equivalent to 1/30 and 1/40 in Japan and the United States now, which is relatively cheap. Moreover, our population is relatively large, and this comparative advantage has a very strong competitive advantage for the country's foreign exports, that is, manufacturing. Our foreign trade export this year, the total import and export volume is expected to reach about 1.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for a very high proportion of the total GDP, which is where we have developed very successfully in the past few years. The shortage of migrant workers gives a question mark. What is this? Can this trend continue?
First of all, I think this may be a good thing. Because from the signal, it at least reminds us that we may not be able to rely on cheaper labor forever in the future. In addition to this advantage, it seems that other advantages should be developed, such as science and technology, such as intellectual property rights, such as service industry. I think this is the first reminder.
Second, in this process, the medical conditions, wages and living standards of migrant workers will continue to improve.
Third, in the long run, as a big country with a population of 65.438+0.3 billion, in the process of realizing modernization, it is inevitable that the overall ability will be improved in all aspects, not just one aspect. In this sense, it is timely or meaningful to pay attention to and study this issue from now on.
6. China faces energy challenges.
Oil, known as the economic lifeline, touched many people's nerves in 2004. Since the beginning of this year, the international oil price has been hovering at a high level and has been hitting a record high. According to the statistics of China Oil Depot Network Information Center, the highest international oil price reached $55.50/barrel1October 25th this year. Although the international oil price has fallen below $50 by the end of 10, it is still about 18 higher than the same period last year. Some people even described the international oil market in 2004 as a crazy roller coaster.
Fang Xiangming, editor-in-chief of Competitiveness magazine, commented as follows:
If we lengthen the whole trend of international oil prices a little longer, we can see that in the past 30 years, international oil prices have had three peaks, the first peak in the early 1980s, the second peak in the early 1990s, and the third peak this year, but they started to climb slowly from 1999. The outstanding reflection this year is to continuously break through the $40, $44, $45 and $48 mark per barrel until it breaks through the $50 mark.
After such a year of continuous inflation, we basically have a judgment: the main factor of oil price increase this year is not the problem of production capacity, because the fluctuation of global oil production capacity is not obvious this year. Then several other factors may become the main factors of oil price rise: first, the rapid growth of global demand for oil; Second, the political situation in the Middle East is unstable; The third is the speculation of international oil speculators.
Specifically, the global demand for energy is the fundamental problem, the instability in the Middle East is a political problem, and the operation of oil speculators is considered as an irrational factor, which is more obvious in this year's oil price rise. There is such a detail. Around April 20, senior analysts in the United States, Germany and France predicted that oil prices would exceed $44, reaching $45. As soon as this sound fell, oil prices rose, breaking through the $40 mark in the first week of May and approaching $42 in the second week. This incident gave us a signal that we were concerned about the irrational factors of the whole oil price rise at that time.
There is also a saying in the world that China imported a large amount of oil, which led to a rapid increase in crude oil prices. I think this conclusion is untenable. Although China's oil imports have gradually increased in recent years, the only country that has a say in international oil prices is the United States.
If international oil prices have an impact on China's economy, first of all, people feel that the price of gasoline at gas stations has gone up. Secondly, I have a very interesting data, that is, a large-scale survey on the income of professional managers in various industries recently. This year, among professional managers in various industries, the petrochemical industry has become the first, reaching nearly 8,000 yuan per month. Last year, the first place was a professional manager in the automobile industry. The impact of rising oil prices on various industries has been directly reflected in the income of professional managers in the industry. The third thing we feel is that the overall chemical price has started to rise with oil. Of course, the more direct industry is transportation. From a more macro point of view, the rise in global oil prices may increase China's losses by nearly $8 billion. Its impact on China's macro-economy is not particularly obvious at present, but according to experts' estimation, it may be 0.7 to 0.8 percentage points.
7. The central bank raises interest rates: start the price tool.
Since the beginning of this year, both economic circles and major financial media have been anxiously waiting for the statistical results of an economic indicator almost every month, which is the consumer price index. The rising consumer price index in China this year has also made interest rate hikes the focus of attention from all walks of life. There have been several rounds of heated discussions on a series of topics, such as whether to increase, when to start increasing, and how much to increase interest rates.
Wenxin Niu, deputy editor-in-chief of the Financial Times, made the following comments:
From the end of 2003 to 2004, we have been discussing macro-control. In this round of tightening regulation, interest rate is of course one of the considerations. Whether to use such means, what are the advantages and disadvantages. Everyone has made a lot of judgments, in fact, they are helping the market sort out and sort out ideas: whether to raise interest rates or not? When should we raise interest rates? How big is the rate hike? This definitely needs to be discussed very fully.
In June this year, the Financial Times published a report saying that even if the CPI rose to 5%, there was no need to raise interest rates. Why is there such a judgment? Under the conditions at that time, the role of raising interest rates would not be too great. Why? Two very important reasons: First, it depends on what is driving this round of economic overheating, or investment overheating. A very important issue we consider is that after the change of local government, the impulse to invest is very great because of the need of political achievements. If interest rates are raised in this context, local governments will not care too much. Why? You just increased the cost of capital by one or two points. How much help do you think it will be? You add two or three points to stimulate it, because it will pursue political achievements. To a certain extent, the investment will definitely come down. But do you need two points, three points or five points? This is a matter of degree. If you add one or two more points, the effect will not be too great. This is the first point.
Second, from June 5438+ 10 last year, we saw that the voice of RMB appreciation was very loud, and the international pressure on China was very great. Under this pressure, if the interest rate is raised again, more funds of hot money arbitrage will flow into the China market. At least, in the process of betting on RMB appreciation, if your interest rate rises, it will reduce some costs, so it will be encouraged to move in. Therefore, under these two considerations, we think that raising interest rates may not have much effect.
In addition, the interest rate hike is definitely to curb the excessive growth of the entire currency. However, if interest rates are raised, hot money will come in, and the base currency composed of foreign exchange will increase again, so that it is impossible to curb the excessive growth of money and inflation will be difficult to come down. Therefore, according to this judgment, we think that it is inappropriate to raise interest rates under the conditions at that time. Great changes have taken place today. We see that the interest rate hike today is to tighten the currency. In fact, we saw a very important statement in this announcement, that is to say, in order to consolidate the achievements of macro-control, there was no further tightening. In fact, the most important thing about this interest rate hike is the other two meanings. The first level is the adjustment of interest rate structure. At first glance, long-term loans have increased a lot, short-term loans have increased less, long-term deposit interest rates have increased a lot, and short-term deposit interest rates have increased less. Actually, there is a problem of structural adjustment. At the beginning of this year, a large number of savings were diverted, the growth rate of savings declined, and the maturity of deposits and loans was mismatched, which required structural policy adjustment. This is a very important point in this round of interest rate hikes. On the second level, we see that the loan ceiling has been liberalized and the deposit floor has been liberalized. In fact, this is moving in the direction of marketization. The significance of interest rate marketization reform is far greater than macro-control.
8. Stock market situation: standardization and development go hand in hand.
This year, China's securities market can be said to have experienced a lot of fluctuations. While creating the most Big bounce in four years, the market also hit a new low in five years. What should we think of the securities market this year? What will be the future market trend?
Lv Pingbo, deputy editor-in-chief of China Business Times, commented as follows:
For the China stock market in 2004, the policy support is considerable. It promotes the stock market policy to the level of macro-policy. As a part of macro-control, it should be said that it is the biggest support of the top management for the securities market. However, we are also faced with a very embarrassing situation: when the "National Nine Articles" was promulgated, the difference between the Shanghai Composite Index and the proposal to implement the "National Nine Articles" was 300 points.
I think there are three reasons: the first reason is macro-control. The macro background definitely determines the development direction of the stock market, and China is no exception. There can't be a big market this year, and this tone is certain. Even with policy support, the rising market will not appear.
Second, although there is maximum support at the policy level, there is still a process of how to implement and implement the nine opinions in the "National Nine Articles", which is full of uncertainty. For example, there are various ideas on how to solve the problem of non-tradable shares. This is a big suspense.
The third point is related to the expansion of the market. This fundamentally affects the relationship between supply and demand, and will also affect the ups and downs of this market.
People will find it strange. On the one hand, China's GDP is growing rapidly. On the other hand, the average performance of listed companies in China has been increasing continuously in the last two years, and it is increasing every quarter, but the share price is indeed declining. What do you think of this problem? I think there are two reasons: on the one hand, the share prices of listed companies in China are on the high side, there is a bubble and there is a squeezing process. On the other hand, this is also related to our concept of China stock market valuation, that is, the mainland stock market will be higher than the Hong Kong stock market. In fact, the market prices of these two places cannot be compared, because Chinese mainland's market is a local market, and Hong Kong's market is basically an international market and an overseas market. This pricing standard should be different. If you copy the set blindly, you will find that there is still room for decline in this market. These are two reasons for the contradiction.
We should see clearly the essential difference between China market and overseas market, not the gap, but how many years we developed earlier and how many years we developed later. These two markets are essentially different, not the same. Overseas stock markets are basically under the capitalist system, while China stock market is established under the socialist market economy. This big social and political background is different, which must not be ignored.
2004 was a year of transition pains. From quantitative change of policy to qualitative change of policy, China stock market is facing a qualitative change process. Everything is from quantitative change to qualitative change, and now the China stock market is at such a critical point. Last year, some experts made a time judgment and thought that after two or three years,
2004 was a year of transition pains. From quantitative change of policy to qualitative change of policy, China stock market is facing a qualitative change process. Everything is from quantitative change to qualitative change, and now the China stock market is at such a critical point. Last year, some experts made a time judgment. After two or three years of adjustment, China's capital market will definitely enter a healthy and stable development track. I think this judgment is more accurate. We have now formed a basic understanding that this market must put investors first and be investor-oriented. If we understand this market in this way, it is possible to get rid of the bad habit of circling money from this market, thus truly reversing the unfavorable situation of the market.
The change of this market in recent years is actually from excessive speculation before 200 1 to excessive financing caused by the bubble after 200 1, which is in the middle of such a change. Now it is in the transition process from excessive financing to orderly financing, and will eventually achieve an ideal state, that is, from ineffective financing to effective financing. In this case, our investment may change from ineffective investment to effective investment, and everyone's interests will be rewarded.
The essential difference between China's securities market and overseas capital market lies in the split share structure. Split share structure is not equal to full circulation. How to implement the protection of investors' interests depends on how to build the shareholder voting system next year and how the specific effect is. This is one aspect. Another aspect is financing, whether it can be changed from excessive financing to orderly and effective. This requires the management to make major adjustments, have a clear understanding of market positioning, change the traditional mindset in the past, and truly turn to investor-oriented, giving the market a space to recuperate and giving listed companies a time to improve their quality. If these two points are achieved, the capital market next year should be more optimistic.
9. Land control: behind the tightening of the "gate"
Farmers need land to grow grain, enterprises need land to expand their scale, and urban development cannot be separated from land. This year, the country has tightened the "gate" of economic development, making "land" a key word that has been widely concerned in the economic field this year. How should we treat the influence of land on China's economic development?
Zhao Bin, deputy editor-in-chief of China Business News, commented as follows:
This should be viewed from two aspects. From the macro background, the constitution now pays more attention to the issue of private property rights, and the central government has also made great efforts to promote this people-oriented livelihood. On the other hand, the problems concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers have aroused widespread concern in recent years, and the problem of farmers' land is precisely the problem of property rights, people's interests and farmers' problems.
Specifically, in recent years, the adjustment of rural industrial structure, urbanization and industrialization have occupied a large amount of cultivated land, which has caused farmers to lose more land and triggered many social contradictions. In addition, since last year, the reduction of grain production has also made the land issue a focus of attention for some time.
It should be said that if the supply of land is restricted, it will definitely restrict the economic development model with land as the main source of profit, which is very normal. Because one of the purposes of regulation itself is to curb this low-level and low-level development. This is a blind development model at the expense of non-renewable resources. On August 28th this year, the revised Land and Land Management Law of People's Republic of China (PRC) was passed. 165438+1October 20th, the State Council issued the decision to deepen the reform and strictly manage the land. The first sentence of this decision says that the land management system in our country is the strictest now. Are there any specialties?