On February 23rd, the National Bureau of Statistics released "Changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in 2002 1 and1year". Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the real estate market in 2002 1 and1was generally stable, and the sales prices of commercial housing in various cities rose month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase expanding and decreasing.
Sales price of commercial housing in cities
The ring-on-ring increase has expanded.
In June 5438+ 10, the sales price of new commercial housing in four first-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively. The sales price of second-hand houses increased by 1.3% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively. 3 1 The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities both increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 35 third-tier cities increased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively from the previous month, with an increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the previous month.
The increase in house prices in June 5438+ 10 was mainly driven by the increase in second-hand house prices in first-tier cities. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, 70 cities with rising second-hand housing prices. This is highly related to the obvious recovery of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities in June 5438+ 10. RealData shows that the actual transaction volume of second-hand houses in 202 10 key cities 18 chain homes increased by about 23% month-on-month, among which the total transaction volume in first-tier cities and four cities increased by 29% month-on-month, and the absolute transaction level was at the monthly high since 20 19.
For first-tier cities, house prices have increased greatly. Jaco, dean of the branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that there are three factors that cannot be ignored. First, the real estate market demand in first-tier cities is still strong. Although Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities have introduced relevant policies in 2020, the market demand is concentrated at a certain stage due to the influx of population and the increasing number of people qualified to buy houses. Second, the rising price of second-hand housing is closely related to educational resources. Judging from the plate where housing prices in first-tier cities have risen more, the performance of houses with concentrated quality education resources is particularly obvious. Third, there are still speculators, some real estate practitioners and some bad media hype in the market, which have an impact on the reasonable expectations of the market.
From the perspective of cities, the price of new houses in Jinhua leads the country, rising by 1.2% from the previous month, followed by Guangzhou, Hefei and Yangzhou, rising by 1%, 0.9% and 0.9% from the previous month respectively. In terms of second-hand housing, Shenzhen's housing price rose by 1.7% month-on-month and 15.3% year-on-year, followed by Guangzhou, Shanghai and Jinhua, which rose by 1.4%, 1.3% and/kloc-0 respectively. It is worth noting that these cities are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta economic circles. Driven by favorable policy planning and market demand, the market is booming. Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities urgently stepped up regulation and control to stabilize housing prices and stabilize expectations.
02
Sales price of commercial housing in cities
The year-on-year growth rate has expanded and declined.
Compared with the same period of last year, the price of new commercial housing in Yinchuan rose by 13.9%, ranking first among 70 large and medium-sized cities. The price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen rose by 15.3%, ranking first among 70 large and medium-sized cities.
In June, 5438+ 10, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 4.2% and 9.6% respectively, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points and 1.0 percentage points respectively. In terms of new commercial housing, Guangzhou rose by 5.9% year-on-year, followed by Shanghai by 4.4%, Shenzhen by 3.7% and Beijing by 2.9%. In terms of second-hand housing, Shenzhen rose by 15.3% year-on-year, followed by Guangzhou 8.7%, Shanghai 7.6% and Beijing 6.9%.
The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities increased by 4. 1% and 2.5% respectively year-on-year, and the increase rates were 0. 1 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month. In terms of new commercial housing, Yinchuan rose by 13.9% year-on-year, ranking first in second-tier cities, with Xining 9%, Chengdu 6.9% and Xi 'an 6.5%. In terms of second-hand housing, Yinchuan rose 9.7% year-on-year, ranking first in second-tier cities, followed by Ningbo 8.8%, Xining 8.6% and Hangzhou 7.7%.
The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities rose by 3.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.2 percentage points from last month. The sales price of second-hand houses increased by 1.5% year-on-year, which was 0. 1 percentage point higher than last month. In terms of new commercial housing, Xuzhou rose by 10% year-on-year, ranking first in third-tier cities, with Tangshan 9.8%, Jining 8.8% and Huizhou 7. 1%. In terms of second-hand housing, Xuzhou rose by 9. 1% year-on-year, ranking first in third-tier cities, followed by Wuxi 7.9%, Tangshan 7.8% and Jinhua 6.2%.
What are the reasons for the rise in house prices?
In the past 30 years, the main reason why China's housing prices have kept rising is the urbanization process, which has driven a large number of rural people to enter the cities. However, under the special household registration system in China, the household registration is linked to the school district (buying a house is the most convenient way to transfer the household registration), so a huge number of people just need it, and it is precisely because of these needs that the house price has remained firm. With the end of urbanization, in theory, China's housing prices should fall or even fall, but in practice it is not. Why?
The reason why house prices do not fall?
There are two main reasons why house prices will not fall sharply in the future:
1, the supply of real estate: In fact, many developers have begun to transform in recent years, such as Wanda's transformation of commercial real estate and cultural industries; Evergrande turns into a car and stays healthy; Vanke transformed into long-term rental apartments and properties. Many people say that the current supply of real estate is far greater than the demand, which is actually our own guess. Do you think that the developer who specializes in this has no research team to study this? If one day the market demand drops to a certain extent, developers will definitely be the first to leave, otherwise this transition preparation is now a joke, so the supply of real estate is not as exaggerated as we thought.
2. government regulation: can house prices fall? Yes, but house prices can't plummet at once. Even if you want to plummet, you should plummet slowly. In addition to the huge damage to the economy caused by a hard landing (for example, housing prices plummeted, developers suffered large losses, and there was not enough capital flow to repay bank loans, which led to the break of the capital chain and eventually led to a large number of unfinished buildings, which affected the work of a large number of people, especially migrant workers, and would form a large area of non-performing loans. Once there are too many non-performing loans, there may be the possibility of bank failure. In addition to the hard landing of the economy, local fiscal revenue is also a major factor. At present, many local governments rely too much on land. Once the house price plummets and the land auction fails, the local fiscal revenue will be reduced, even affecting the normal operation of local governments.