one
Arrive/get home
Business Observer: All four companies here have done home business, including Liangxian, which is also trying to get ahead. How can we see this market? How big will the market be?
Zhang Xiaohui: What I just shared gave me a data. When I get home, the market should account for more than 30%, which is consistent with my expectation and may reach 50% in the next three to five years.
Shen Bin: I think everyone's expectations for this figure are generally similar, all around 20%-30%. More is that the proportion of the first-,second-,third-and fourth-line markets is different.
There may be more demand in first-and second-tier cities, which has a lot to do with people's sensitivity to time. Therefore, great changes have taken place in this market in recent years. This problem did not exist ten years ago.
Wang Qi: In fact, Suning stores are doing it no matter whether they arrive at home or at the store. There are two ways: front-loading and arrival. I think whether a model can be recognized by consumers in the end, the most important thing is whether it can be profitable. For capital, for enterprises, the ultimate goal is to see if they can make a profit.
In the home business, I always feel that its performance cost may affect its profitability. From the perspective of global fresh retail format, no company's home business accounts for more than 10%. Even in China, the current capital drive may be very popular in the past year or two, but how much higher may it be in the future?
Ma Tengfei: Actually, I am more optimistic about the home furnishing industry. First, after years of Internet education, users have developed Internet consumption habits. Second, with the development of the city and the acceleration of the pace of life, convenient consumption demand will become an important consumption form for office workers, and home business will be an important choice for consumers. The third point is that 5G has been promoted, so online shopping will be more convenient and its customer experience will be better for customers.
Business Observer: Zhang is always the main person in charge of Yonghui's front warehouse to home business. Can the pre-warehouse cover the performance cost? What is the market share of Yonghui's front warehouse in Fuzhou? Zhang Xiaohui: Let's not talk about market share. The population of Fuzhou is about three or four million. At present, we live more than one million a month. Usually one or more people in that family download (our) APP, so it can be inferred that 70%-80% families in Fuzhou become our monthly users. Daily users are also basically a data of 6.5438+0.9 million.
I think it is a new e-commerce. The biggest problem of traditional e-commerce is that the traditional logistics system express delivery system can't support fresh products. It's hard to imagine that SF will help you deliver fresh food. New infrastructure is needed to provide this convenient service, but the convenient service of instant delivery of fresh products by Internet users has not been well satisfied.
Whether the cost can be covered is actually very difficult under the current situation and the current competitive situation. It will (cover) in the future
How many students here raised their hands after listening to yesterday's sharing (the agenda of the first day of the fresh retail conference). Most of them listened (after the live interaction). All the guests yesterday could actually divide their views into two directions. Some are like Rosen convenience store and convenience food. The basic point is that post-80s, post-90s and post-00s will become the main consumers, and they will choose a premium for convenience.
The other part is self-made reservation, and the views are unified. Cheap is king.
But I don't think there is a perfect business model in the world, such as rich category matching demand, preferential price and guarantee system. No store or format can achieve the ultimate in four aspects at the same time.
But if you want to survive, you must be able to achieve the ultimate at a certain value point, and every store will occupy a certain position in this value space. And I think there is a complementary relationship between these formats. If things will get better and better in the next decade, then I think more and more people will be willing to pay a premium for convenience. If people become poorer and poorer in the future, they will become more and more sensitive to prices. This is my opinion.
Business Observer: Liangxian used to be a B2C fresh e-commerce, and recently tried the pre-warehouse business in Shanghai. What happened? Can we continue? Shen Bin: We have tried different models, and the front warehouse is one of the directions currently being tested. I want to share some ideas with you. In the process of trying the pre-warehouse, we will find that (B2C and pre-warehouse) have naturally different performances in data. One is the difference in customer unit price, and (B2C) will naturally be higher. Everyone likes to hoard goods, and they buy them several times a month, two or four times. The front warehouse is more of a daily demand, similar to the demand of stores, and may be purchased once every two or three days. The data in some fields are very interesting. Some users will buy the pre-warehouse service once a day or two to three days, so the customer unit price is often lower. Therefore, if we insist on covering from the perspective of performance cost, it is actually unrealistic in the early stage. Because you still have to cultivate user habits and make some subsidies. However, these two groups of people (B2C and Qiancang) are actually completely different groups. Because the demand of Qiancang group is very much needed, there is actually a certain value-added space, so the pricing includes the future value-added of this service, and there is a chance to make some changes.
In addition, we will find some differences in conversion rate. Everyone knows that the conversion rate of Taobao Tmall is between 2 and 5, usually 3 to 4 points. (Vertical category) B2C generally depends on whether you can subdivide in the vertical field. Between 10 and 20, the conversion rate of the front bin is particularly strange, which is also the subject we have been studying recently. Our front warehouse conversion rate will be close to 50%, and half of 100 guests will place orders. The purpose is particularly obvious, which is to form a habit.
And the old customers are very loyal, that is, 100% is retained.
I think this is a need for this thing (home), because there are some sub-groups among the post-80 s, post-90 s and post-00 s, so we think that the former warehouse does not mean serving everyone. At present, we can only serve some people, but these people are likely to develop the habit of offline purchase for a long time to come. Therefore, this (pre-warehouse) is not the king of solving the problem, because retail will eventually face more and more customers.
We think that the front warehouse is a better way to supplement, especially for enterprises with different formats like Yonghui. We think the combination of different modes in the future will be an interesting expectation.
Business Observer: The conversion rate of 50% in the front warehouse is quite high. I want to ask about Suning store. In the last mile of exploration, Suning made a Suning store and a pre-warehouse, and now it is doing its own promotion. But the impression is that at present, the front row position seems to be no longer the focus?
Wang Qi: Actually, we have been thinking about novelty. For example, we opened 3,000 Suning stores last year, and there are more than 6,000 this year. In this way, it covers more than 70 cities on a large scale to promote such community stores, and how to operate fresh food has also taken many detours.
Community fresh food stores sell fresh food at the store site. In fact, as we all know, (the whole industry) is losing a lot, so we have to change the way.
Later, we found a way to pre-warehouse, but found that the cost of pre-warehouse was still very high in the initial dimension. Because it is a secret warehouse, customers don't know there is such a warehouse, so we find that the cost investment and repurchase process are very painful.
And maybe Shanghai has a better acceptance, and the acceptance of different cities in the country is different. We are also doing pre-warehouses now, including every store in Carrefour, which will become one of our warehouses. In this case, there will be nearly 400 warehouses during the double 1 1 period.
Starting to do food market in April and May this year is the mode of picking up goods at the store.
(So), how to distinguish the front warehouse from the food market (self-lifting).
I think there are two dimensions. The first one is in a first-and second-tier city like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Perhaps the customer's demand for the front warehouse has higher requirements in time and timeliness, and the front warehouse will be more in line with one of its needs.
However, in third-and fourth-tier cities, (consumers) may have plenty of time, pursue cost performance and demand efficiency, and it may be ok to pick it up at the store.
This is from the perspective of the city, and there is also a dimension of consumption age. Just now, in fact, everyone said that there are more young people in e-commerce. For young people, the mode of getting home before the warehouse is more popular. For China, the main group food is middle-aged and elderly people, so these people may have a particularly high demand for cost performance, so they may prefer to go to stores to get it. We have been groping and community group buying is also being done. Personally, based on my 20-year fresh-keeping experience in Japan and China, this is my first public speech. I think the mode of "store self-raising" may be a specific mode of chain fresh-keeping
Business Observer: Greentown Supermarket is deeply involved in Puyang, Henan Province. According to the traditional market classification, Puyang belongs to the fourth-class market. Greentown's self-service business is now doing very well and very lively. I would like to ask, in the third-and fourth-tier markets, is it better to do pre-sales self-help, or do it at home, or simply do it in stores? Ma Tengfei: We hatched from 20 15 to the home platform as a supplement to the store business. Fresh food has made 30 points (gross profit margin), about 25 points. At present, the average unit price is about 45 yuan, and the gross profit per order is about 1 1.5 yuan.
The merchants who arrive at the store prepare goods for the merchants who arrive at home, and the platform that arrives at home gives the store 7 points of profit, which is more than 3 yuan. Our delivery fee per order is probably 6.9 yuan, which is outsourced, and it has a lot of cooperation with Diandian, accounting for about 15. So the net profit of home business is about two points.
If the order is lower than that of 39 yuan, then we have to charge a certain delivery fee. On the whole, the average net profit of home business is around 2 yuan per order, accounting for more than 4 points.
For the home business, our goal is not to burn money, but to advance steadily. From the perspective of performance cost, (now) it is a state of meager profit.
We think family-to-family business is ok. Looking at the data report, the home business tends to be conventional, and the order volume is probably conventional, so there is not much energy input (for home business) now.
The mode of pre-sale and self-raising is still very popular, and everyone including us has been affected before. (At present, the effect of pre-sale and self-lifting business is really good.
two
supply chain
Business Observer: Is there any difference in the supply chain construction of the "last mile" solution, whether it is home, store or pre-sale? Yonghui has a say in this area? Zhang Xiaohui: Yes, because we have both door-to-door delivery service and self-delivery service, and we have tried both of them. The supply chain is really different.
As Mr. Shen said just now, these formats face different people. In fact, when dividing stores and homes, it is divided into supermarkets, convenience stores and community fresh food stores. These different stores have different customer groups. (So), how do these different stores (unified norms) promote themselves?
Just now Mr. Wang talked about the customer base. I'd like to add that the users who go home started after 80s. In fact, even in the face of the elderly, even in third-tier cities, the response of businesses has exceeded expectations and imagination.
(So) I have been reflecting recently. We should actually distinguish between middle-aged and elderly people and housewives. Their consumption habits are never all about buying cheap things and being disloyal. For example, after 60, it may be different. This group of middle-aged and elderly people will be better to themselves and have different values, which will lead to different behavior habits.
In fact, the home demand in third-and fourth-tier cities is also very strong. Once people have experienced a more convenient lifestyle, it is difficult to return to the original inconvenient lifestyle. It's hard to get used to the bad experience of paying in cash after getting used to paying by mobile phone.
Therefore, there will be many conveniences (hierarchical requirements) for the requirements of the supply chain.
(From the perspective of urban classification), have third-tier cities reached the local market? I think so. The disposable income of third-tier cities is not necessarily less than that of others, and people in third-tier cities are not necessarily more diligent than those in first-tier cities. However, due to the personality and psychological needs of different people, the choice of goods will be different.
A person who has relatively time and is diligent will be willing to go to the supermarket (stock up) and process it himself. A lazy person, rich or poor, will like to eat convenient dishes.
In the future, we believe that more users will be willing to pay a little premium for a better and more convenient life, so as to better cover all aspects of costs.
Shen Bin: My cognition is that there are different competition points in home, shop and self-promotion.
For example, I recently studied this matter and found that self-promotion is actually more of a cost advantage, which is such a consideration.
As we all know, fresh food is a slow-growing stock market, and the number of people around it is a very stable value, so its (incremental) demand is limited.
Why is there a need for self-promotion? Because it may reduce some losses in a predetermined way, and (relative to the home business) it may reduce some home costs. People who are often worried about the cost may give priority to self-service.
But if you face some young people who are used to door-to-door service, basically, self-promotion is not an ideal (choice). I asked many young people, and they didn't even bother to get the self-service lockers downstairs. My knowledge of getting home is value-added service, and more is to satisfy some people who don't want to help themselves 500 meters downstairs.
Arriving at the store is another field, and Yonghui is good at it. Facing the crowd, including experience, is a deeper knowledge.
From the perspective of supply chain, arriving at home and arriving at the store are actually complementary forms. Because ordering from the internet (home) can not only meet the basic needs, but also be extended to more SKUs.
For a community-based store, a store is basically between 1000 and 2000 SKUs. If it is online and the shelves are well managed, a fresh food store can generally make 4,000 to 6,000 SKUs or more. Like supermarkets, these can provide more than 10 thousand SKUs, which can meet very long demand.
So when these needs are fully displayed, these offline experiences can bring some offline traffic and low-cost traffic.
Then home service can meet the sticky needs of users, so the supply chain, in fact, we think that fresh things should be done well.
Business Observer: Suning has made a lot of layouts in the fresh supply chain in the past. What do you think of this problem? Wang Qi: I want to make two points. According to what I said just now, it is the best way to pick it up at the store, which may be the best for the front desk.
I don't deny on-site purchase and pre-storage, but (they) may be a supplement.
Why do you say that? Consider a balance (the balance between the consumer and the enterprise). If you want to make a profit, for consumers, what he pursues is cost-effective goods and its user experience. For enterprises, it is nothing more than hoping that we can make more profits and start with cost and efficiency.
The hardest thing to do offline (chain) is the standard. In other words, there is a loss in the operation end, which requires standards, display and sales. (and) it is possible to bring this model to the store (to solve the standard problem).
Say four words: the best display is no display, the best standard is no standard, the best sales is no sales, and the best loss control is no loss.
Customers (online) do not need to display their orders. (So) Do they need to train employees on product attributes (knowledge), how to keep them fresh and how to discount them? There is no need for standards.
To control losses, everyone has always said "no meat overnight". For self-promotion, there is no overnight dish or overnight meat. The customer bought it the day before and picked it up the next day. The biggest loss is not that it can't be sold on the same day, but that the store will not discount for two or three days. If it is sold on the same day, in fact, there is almost no loss at the store.
The best sale is no sale.
What the enterprise sells is definitely high-frequency things, because the cost is very low and it can be directly fed back to customers. As long as the customer's words are cost-effective, they can be purchased through word of mouth. There is no need to do too much publicity.
So for the front desk, it is the easiest to copy and find the best balance between customers and enterprises.
Asking for the front desk may be the simplest, and the background may be the most complicated. This is how we really feel when we do it.
Because (self-lifting supply chain) needs absolute timeliness.
We deeply understand customers' requirements for the quality of goods, especially when they pick up the goods in the store or provide on-site service. If the quality of fresh goods is low, it is timeliness (problem). Consumers can get the goods at 7 o'clock the next day after placing an order at 2 1 point. Enterprises to complete the packaging and distribution of goods to stores, the timeliness and supply chain requirements are very high. I think this is the most difficult one.
The second is quality, which requires absolute quality, which is different from offline. Offline, if you want to buy 10 kilograms of goods today, it is no problem that (the supplier) may send you 8 kilograms of goods, (the problematic 2 kilograms of goods are rejected by the logistics). But the customer doesn't know how many kilograms you entered.
If this is the case, the self-delivery model will not work. If a customer orders ten goods today, he must give them ten goods, because the contract has been signed (the customer has paid for the order the day before) and there is a contractual relationship.
If you don't get the right goods and good quality goods, you have violated the contract and you have to pay compensation. So it's hard. The front end is the lightest and the back end is the most difficult.
Ma Tengfei: Regarding the supply chain, I will continue to talk to Mr. Wang about Mr. Shen.
I quite agree with what Mr. Shen said just now. Home and self-help customers have different needs. Users who may go home pay more attention to convenience and have certain requirements for quality. They are not very sensitive to price.
Self-promotion users are more interested in the cheapness of a commodity. Only when they are interested in the cheapness of a commodity are they willing to promote themselves.
Therefore, from the perspective of supply chain, in terms of commodity selection and door-to-door business, we should pay attention to product selection as well as quality.
For users who come to the store to pick up their own products, on the one hand, they should pay attention to quality, on the other hand, they should control the price advantage when buying. The second is in the circulation.
In fact, the focus of home business is delivery service, because if quality procurement is done well, stores will do more delivery services. For example, we promise to deliver the goods to our customers within 30 minutes.
But for self-service users, because self-service is a pre-sale mode, a large number of orders are gathered in a short time and transferred to the warehouse. It may take the same night or even the next morning to deliver these goods to the store, which has great consideration for logistics.
The third point is teamwork.
In fact, the home business is a step-by-step work, that is, purchasing according to our normal delivery, which can meet the normal shopping needs of some consumers.
However, we need to make a product plan two weeks in advance, and then make a new quotation for this product one week later, just like we do group work and pre-sale ourselves. Are there (necessary) changes in price and purchasing quality?
Therefore, for this process, for procurement, for planning and promotion, and even for logistics, there is a high linkage effect, and our employees are facing a sense of urgency and pressure.
three
end
Business Observer: Last question, what is the end of the "last mile" of fresh food? Will it be a compound form, how many stores are equipped with a front warehouse and so on? Zhang Xiaohui: The opposite of going home is going to the store, not getting it. The essence of self-promotion is pre-sale, otherwise it is not good to go to the store and choose for yourself. Contrary to pre-sale, or relatively real-time.
How many people have decided what to eat at noon tomorrow? The essence of pre-sale lies in planned consumption, which does not conform to the living habits of Chinese people or the public. At present, the main selling point is low cost, because pre-sale can bring lower losses, give this benefit to consumers and give him lower prices.
Users will always distinguish between different groups of people, and some users will buy promotional goods every day with subsistence allowances. Some users also choose more convenient services.
We find that the user traffic between several formats will be basically the same, depending on the user's mood scene. The weather is so good that I want to go out for a walk. If I don't want to go out, I'm tired. If I want to take care of the children, I will place an order on my mobile phone. I think it is more of a complementary scene, and the future will be very prosperous.
Shen Bin: I think the "last mile" itself is a new thing. Because I always went to the store before, I recently received a door-to-door business, indicating that there is a new demand.
The new retail is originally to solve the problem that the original traditional services can't keep up with the needs of new people. Therefore, as far as the technical solution provided at the moment of the last mile is concerned, it is nothing more than who delivers it quickly and whose cost is lower.
Another thing we should consider is that you should try to open a fruit shop in Lujiazui. I think there is a great possibility of hanging up, because the rent and other costs are too expensive.
So at this time, it is often to provide a hidden warehouse (pre-warehouse) or B2C online, which is more cost-effective in terms of performance cost.
In the fourth-tier cities, people have a lot of free time, and transportation and parking are very convenient. It is a natural choice to go to the store because of the low cost of performance.
When facing different people at different stages, we should consider them comprehensively. There is actually no absolute point (the last mile) in it.
However, in real life, after all, when you get home, you will definitely grab some store demand. (For example, before you arrived at the store, it was 100%, and when you got home, you robbed 20% of the market. This is very painful offline, especially in first-tier cities.
Therefore, if enterprises want to go deep into the field now, it is definitely not the ability to fight alone. It should be land, sea and air, from stores to home.
Wang Qi: This is a very difficult topic.
I think there must be a need to go home first. (But) the point is still in the store, and there is another piece in it, which can be picked up at the store or bought at the store site.
At present, there may not be a community fresh-keeping enterprise in the world, and less than 1000 stores can make a profit. This is the fatal point of chain fresh food, which is difficult to copy and standardize.
Then, picking it up at the store may be a solution.
When it comes to user experience, I will say three kinds of user experiences. When we were young, in primary schools, junior high schools and special primary schools, everyone ate before 8 o'clock. When we eat, my mother will ask you, what will you eat tomorrow?
At this time, my mother may write it down and buy it the next day after work (but it may be out of stock). There is no meat, no fish and no vegetables. Even if there is, the quality may not be guaranteed. Pre-sale can solve this problem, and the mobile phone can solve the problem of ordering in a minute or two, which can ensure that you can mention the freshest goods that belong to you whenever you arrive at the store before 9 o'clock tomorrow. So is this more in line with the current life scene of O2O Internet? The supermarket has developed for twenty or thirty years now, and I don't know how to move forward. This approach is one of the alternatives. The second scene is to believe that many people here don't live with their parents. Are you worried about your parents' health?
If you can charge your parents 1000 yuan in a small community store, there will be a small store in conjunction with the best nutritionist in the country to create a healthy meal suitable for your parents, cut it and wash it, and then let your parents pick it up in the store, so that the store manager can see your parents every day and communicate with them, or give them another cup of healthy tea every day and drink it at a fixed time. (Will this experience be better? The third scene is male fitness, female beauty, or pregnant women cooking health meals for the elderly.
It is difficult to do this offline. If you are online, you can order this meal in advance, wash it for you, and just go home and fry it. This is more suitable for the future.
People who make fresh food always hope that they can really sell more things than pure fresh ingredients. Why can restaurants sell two or three times more expensive than offline fresh food stores? I have worked offline for many years. I move potatoes and sell onions every day, and I only earn a few dollars selling potatoes.
Ma Tengfei: I don't think this is the end, because the demands of consumers are constantly changing. Maybe ten years ago, or even twenty years ago, they didn't know what home-to-home business was and what was self-promotion, because consumers will make changes now that they have new needs.
We pay more attention to the needs of consumers at different levels. In fact, Mr. Ding (Yuan Ding) spoke very well today. If there is no physical store as a support, online is difficult for fourth-tier cities to survive. Whether it is the pursuit of product quality or convenience, or the pursuit of cheap, its solutions are all made by us (stores).
As for pre-sales self-promotion, I think what we do is to make a life proposal for consumers and guide them to try different lifestyles. Maybe (consumers) didn't think that making a text introduction or something like that might produce an impulse to consume.
I think fresh food shops and the Internet should be added to the last mile. Whether you go to the store or pick up the goods yourself, you will rely on physical stores. While doing a good job in physical stores, we must embrace the internet, not only taking advantage of the convenience of getting home, but also taking advantage of the cheapness of pre-sale to meet the needs of consumers at different levels.