How should managers avoid decision-making traps?

-1- During the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period, there was a royal descendant of the Tang Dynasty named? Li zairen? To avoid chaos in Jiangling, he got an official position under the local warlord Gao Jixing.

Mr. Li is pedantic by nature and hates eating meat. One day, the superior leader called him to a meeting. As soon as he got on the horse, two of his followers started fighting. Angry Li Zairen ordered servants to bring bread and meat from the kitchen, ordered soldiers to supervise each other and eat them all, and warned: If you dare to do this again, I will add ghee to the meat for you to eat! ?

Li zairen? Punish people who eat meat? This practice was recorded by historians and became the laughing stock of all previous dynasties.

In fact, the royal family of Li Tang was originally? One track-minded? . It is said that he read a best-selling book, The Hundred Avoidances Calendar, and believed it.

Li Zairen and his wife live in separate rooms. One day, his wife knocked on his door. Li quickly took out "White" and read it. After reading it, he was shocked. He is in his room tonight. How can you sleep? ? Don't let your wife in.

There is a story about barracuda in krylov's fable, which makes people laugh even more: the barracuda in the forest kingdom committed a crime, and the judge goat made a judgment and threw it into the river and drowned it. Sheep are afraid of water, thinking that fish are also afraid of water, and the outcome can be imagined naturally.

Once upon a time, in a cold winter, a carpenter took his children to work in the landlord's house. The carpenter worked so hard that he took off his clothes one by one. At this time, he thought of the child, and he was afraid that he would be hot, so he took off his clothes one by one. Then the child froze to death.

False sympathy bias, also called false consistency bias, means that people often overestimate or exaggerate the universality of their beliefs, judgments and behaviors. It is a way for people to firmly believe and judge correctly.

-2- When people get along with each other, they always habitually put what they think is right on others, assuming that they are the same as others.

? False empathy bias? It can make people believe in the correctness of their beliefs, judgments and behaviors, thus gaining self-confidence, self-esteem and pride. When you encounter information that is inconsistent with your cognition, it will make people stick to their cognition.

But at the same time, if your own cognition is wrong, it will make people make wrong judgments, choices and decisions.

1. When you are pregnant, you may suddenly find many pregnant women while walking on the road, which you didn't notice before.

2. You like fitness, then you may find that there are many fitness facilities around you, and many people like fitness as much as you do.

If you like traveling, you may find that there are many people around you who are eager to travel, and you will travel when you can.

4. Many girls always feel that they are fat, obviously well-proportioned, which makes people feel very comfortable, or they are shouting to lose weight. In fact, they are often exaggerated. Unreasonable cognition? .

There are too many similar examples in daily life, because people tend to stick to their opinions because of false sympathy deviation, and there is no way to see the essence of things through appearances.

-3- It was cold, and three friends went to the hot pot restaurant outside to eat spicy hot pot.

A friend likes beef balls so much that he ordered three plates. However, after dinner, my friend only ate 1 plate, and there were 2 plates left.

I know this friend likes beef balls, so I told him that you like beef balls best, and there are 2 plates left. Why don't you clean it up and don't waste it! ? Which friend is embarrassed to say too full. He thought the beef balls were delicious and specially ordered two more plates for us.

Another friend and I don't like beef balls. Maybe neither of us told this friend who likes beef balls. He likes eating it himself, so he thinks we both like eating beef balls.

In the end, the remaining two plates of beef balls were not destroyed, and food was wasted.

Because of unreasonable cognition, we think our preferences are the same as those of most people, especially when we are very sure of our views or when this view is very important to us.

People always inadvertently exaggerate the universality of their views, and even give others their own characteristics, thinking that they are the same as others.

This false sympathy deviation makes you gain self-esteem and pride because you firmly believe in the correctness of your beliefs and judgments, but it also brings you mistakes in decision-making and choice.

-4. Because of what? False empathy bias? We will mistakenly think that our hobbies are the same as most people, and people who like them will generally like them; What we hate is generally disliked by others.

If you don't have a deep understanding of an industry, starting a business rashly is likely to fail. There are countless examples of this.

1. I like to eat cross-bridge rice noodles, so I opened a cross-bridge rice noodle shop and found that business was not very good.

2. I am keen on losing weight, and think that people who are struggling to find ways to lose weight like themselves are everywhere, so I opened a health pavilion. I don't know anything about this industry, and I stubbornly believe that my business must be booming, but later I found it impossible.

During the period of 1977, Lee Ross, a professor of social psychology at Stanford University, conducted two simple and effective empirical studies to prove how false empathy bias affects people's perception and decision-making.

A. when the current behavior or event is very important to you.

B. when you are very sure and firm about your views or opinions.

C. when your position and normal life are threatened in some way.

D. when it comes to positive qualities or personalities.

E. when you treat others as people similar to yourself.

-5- The psychological effect of false empathy deviation is well used, which is even more powerful; If you use it in the wrong place, it is likely to turn into blindness and arrogance.

When we need to cheer ourselves up and provide ourselves with strong spiritual support, false empathy deviation is very good. It makes us believe in ourselves, firmly believe that we are right, firmly believe that we will follow the planned road, and finally we will reap fruitful results.

When our cognition has gone beyond the reality too much, or is inconsistent with the facts, when our ability is not enough to support our ambitions, we need to correct the influence of false sympathy deviation.

How can we avoid it? False empathy bias? Be a wise man?

You can listen to the opinions of different types of people in everything, study the actual situation in combination with your own actual situation, and make the final judgment and choice.

We can never guarantee that our judgments, choices and actions are completely correct, but at least, we can do it. After careful consideration, no matter what kind of judgment, choice and behavior we make, we can be responsible for ourselves and have no regrets.

As the old saying goes, listen to everything clearly and be selfish? ,? Don't do to others what you don't want them to do to you? .

No one can look at a thing completely objectively, and we will look at others with filters. Therefore, we have no reason to expect others to understand me, but should try to make others understand me and try to avoid it? False empathy bias? .

In addition, we should also pay attention to an open mind, try to see things from our own perspective and see the essence through appearances. Eliminate prejudice, put value perception first, reduce decision-making mistakes, and strive to be a wise person.