One of the trends: sustained and rapid growth
Investment multiplier effect is the main factor to promote Beijing's economic growth in preparation for the Olympic Games. After the Olympic Games, this effect obviously no longer exists. Can Beijing's economy maintain rapid growth? The answer is yes.
First of all, after the Beijing Olympic Games, the "export" growth of domestic and international services will accelerate. First of all, China is in the stage of economic development driven by increasing returns to scale. For a long time to come, if the scarcity of primary products is kept below the productivity increase brought by increasing returns to scale, and if the wealth distribution gap is kept within the socially acceptable range, China's economy will grow steadily and continuously. Beijing is a service-oriented economy, and the above-mentioned development trend of China's economy will certainly expand the demand for Beijing services, thus driving the accelerated growth of its "output" at home and abroad; The second is driven by the multiplier effect of Olympic service output. The Olympic effect will not disappear with the closing of the Olympic Games. From the international experience, the Olympic Games left a more or less legacy to the host city, which enhanced the ability of the host city to export tourism, exhibitions, sports events and other services at home and abroad, thus promoting the growth of the host city's export trade at home and abroad about three years after the meeting. Because the Olympic Games has left Beijing with rich service capabilities, the multiplier effect of Olympic service output is more prominent.
Secondly, investment will continue to grow rapidly. After the Olympic Games, two important changes will take place in Beijing's economic construction. First, further adjust the relationship between the construction of "central city, new traffic and new town", while continuing to accelerate the construction of new traffic, comprehensively start the construction of key new towns and accelerate the pace of new town construction; Second, while continuing to focus on promoting the development of high-tech industries, financial industries and cultural and creative industries, we will further focus on promoting the development of producer services and social services based on high-end industrial functional zones and new towns, forming a "four-pole" industrial development pattern driven by high-tech industries, financial and producer services, social services and cultural and creative industries. These adjustments will strongly support the sustained and rapid growth of investment after the Olympic Games.
Third, consumption growth tends to accelerate. First, because Beijing's per capita GDP has exceeded 6,000 US dollars, and the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents has dropped to 30%, Beijing has entered a stage of development and enjoyment consumption growth with accelerated income growth, rapid improvement of consumption capacity and rapid upgrading of consumption structure of urban and rural residents; Second, further rationalization of employment, labor relations and income distribution system is conducive to improving the income distribution structure and expanding consumption; Third, with the acceleration of social security construction and the continuous improvement of the scope and level of security, residents' consumer confidence and propensity to consume have increased; Fourth, the Olympic Games will enhance citizens' desire for development and consumption, especially for sports and fitness.
The second trend: further shift to innovation-driven
For a region, the way to gain competitive advantage is nothing more than cost strategy and differentiation strategy. Beijing's competitive advantage cannot be mainly based on low cost. On the one hand, although compared with major international cities such as new york, Tokyo and London, the prices of production factors such as labor, land and environmental services available in Beijing are relatively low, in China, Beijing is the region with the highest factor price and is at a disadvantage; On the other hand, although heavy chemical industrialization is still an important direction of national economic development, Beijing has entered the post-industrial period, and the service industry has accounted for more than 70% of all economic activities, and it is at a comparative disadvantage in using the internal economies of scale of large industrial production to obtain low costs. In this case, the main way for Beijing to gain competitive advantage is the differentiation of products and services, and the source of differentiation lies in innovation. In other words, in order to gain competitive advantage under the condition of market globalization, Beijing's economy needs further innovation drive.
The key elements of innovation drive are CSF, that is, creativity-the ability to generate new feasible ideas, speed-the speed of bringing new ideas to market, and flexibility-the ability to adapt to market changes. Beijing is the region with the strongest ability to produce new ideas in China, and it is also the region with fast marketization speed and high adaptability to market changes. The advantages of taking the road of innovation-driven and differentiated development are obvious.
In order to promote innovation-driven economic development, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government issued the Opinions on Strengthening Independent Innovation Ability and Building an Innovative City in 2006 and the Decision on Vigorously Promoting the Construction of a Learning City in the Capital in 2007, respectively, clearly stating that Beijing will be initially built into an innovative city and a learning capital in 20 10. These arrangements will strongly support Beijing's economy to further shift to innovation-driven after the Olympic Games.
The third trend: the service economy will reach a new level.
Since 1990s, Beijing's service industry has experienced three important leaps: 1995, the added value of service industry accounted for 50% of GDP, and Beijing initially entered the era of "service economy"; Since 2003, the added value of Beijing's service industry has surpassed all cities in China and become the largest service center in China. In 2006, the added value of Beijing's service industry accounted for 70.9% of GDP, which is equivalent to the average level of high-income countries and regions.
After the Olympic Games, five new favorable factors will push Beijing's service industry to a new level. First, the service industry has further become a new growth point of the national economy; Second, the construction of a harmonious society will give full play to the advantages of Beijing's social undertakings and make "social economy" a new bright spot in the capital economy; Third, the Olympic legacy has improved Beijing's service capabilities in tourism, sports, culture, exhibitions and so on; Fourth, Beijing's international city will begin to enter the stage of basic completion, and the headquarters economy with global control capability will further become a trend; Fifth, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government are working hard to formulate suggestions to promote the development of Beijing's modern service industry.
The author believes that after the Olympic Games, Beijing's service industry will reach a new level in five aspects: "reforming system, adjusting structure, optimizing layout, improving efficiency and increasing scale". Changing the system means that Beijing will gradually establish "fair competition, openness and order, and global integration" service industry rules and regulations; Adjusting the structure is to adapt to the requirements of national capitals, international cities, famous cultural cities and livable cities, and on the basis of the all-round development of the service industry, strive to promote the development of financial and productive services, cultural creativity and social services; Optimal layout is to combine the location requirements of different service industries or service value-added activities with local advantages, realize the optimal layout of urban internal service industries, and promote the coordinated development of northern and southern cities, central cities and suburbs, and urban and rural areas; Improving efficiency means improving labor productivity by improving the quality of workers, scientific service and innovation. At present, the output rate of service units in Beijing is only about 1/5 to 1/4 of the corresponding indicators in Hong Kong and Singapore in the same period. Improving labor productivity is the central task of making Beijing's service industry bigger and stronger. Scale is to further expand the absolute scale of service industry and increase the proportion of service industry in GDP.
The fourth trend: further turn to the development of dual multi-center network.
From a spatial perspective, Beijing's economy will further present a two-level multi-center network development trend.
The first is the multi-center network development pattern of Beijing economy. Beijing's 11th Five-Year Plan proposes to build Zhongguancun Science Park, Beijing Financial Street, Beijing Central Business District, Olympic Center, Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone and Shunyi Airport Economic Zone. In 2006, the added value of six high-end industrial functional zones accounted for about 38% of the city's GDP and became an important growth center to drive Beijing's economic development. According to Beijing's 11th Five-Year Plan, after the Olympic Games, Beijing will start the construction of three key new cities, namely Tongzhou, Shunyi and Yizhuang, and accelerate the development of new cities. At present, the planning of three key new towns has been completed and the preliminary work of the project is being carried out. The other eight new cities are also actively participating in the work of accelerating development. The development of the new city will certainly promote the further multi-center networking development of Beijing's economy.
Secondly, the development trend of multi-center network of capital circle economy. In the 11th Five-Year Plan, Tianjin Binhai New Area and Hebei Caofeidian Circular Economy Industrial Demonstration Zone were included in the overall strategic development layout of the country, and a comprehensive plan for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area was compiled. According to the plan, the Capital Circle will become a new international metropolitan circle with Beijing as the main core, Tianjin as the secondary core, Beijing-Langfang-Tianjin-Binhai New Area as the main axis, Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang, Beijing-Tangshan-Qinhuangdao as the secondary axis, Caofeidian-Binhai New Area-Cangzhou-Huanghua Port as the coastal town concentration zone, and Zhangjiakou and Chengde as the growth poles of northern Hebei. At present, Beijing is actively participating in the construction of this international metropolis through market mechanism, cooperation mechanism, mutual assistance mechanism and support mechanism in transportation, water resources and ecology, energy, industry, tourism, science and technology, education, culture, health and market system. It can be predicted that after the Olympic Games, the economic development trend of the multi-center network capital circle with Beijing as the core will be more prominent.
The fifth trend: further transition to circular economy
With the change of growth mode, the optimization of economic structure, the progress of technology, the enhancement of the awareness of environmental protection and resource conservation in the whole society, the increasing demand for good environmental quality, and the establishment and improvement of the system and mechanism of energy saving, consumption reduction and emission reduction, Beijing's economy will further transform into a circular economy after the Olympic Games.
The general trend of China's steady and rapid economic development after the Olympic Games will not change.
International Online News (Reporter Yan Xi): Whether China's economy can continue to grow after the Olympic Games has attracted much attention. In response to this problem, Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, said recently that the Olympic Games will not be a watershed in China's economic development.
With the Olympic Games approaching its climax, more and more people are beginning to worry that China's economy will face the problem of insufficient development momentum after the Olympic Games. Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, believes that after entering the post-Olympic period, the large-scale investment demand for venues and related infrastructure construction in the pre-Olympic period and the huge consumption demand brought by domestic and foreign tourists during the Olympic Games will weaken or even disappear in the short term, but the basic driving force for China's sustained and rapid economic development in the past 30 years will not change, and the economic and investment increment brought by the Olympic Games will account for a small proportion of China's total economic and investment. Therefore, the Olympic Games will not become a watershed in China's economic development and will not change the steady and rapid development of China's economy.
Wang Yiming, for example, said, "For example, in 2007, Beijing's total economic output accounted for 3.6% of the national economic output. Beijing's Olympic venues construction and infrastructure investment is about 300 billion yuan. If it is broken down at the peak of investment, it will be broken down into four years, with an average of 75 billion yuan per year, accounting for the share of fixed assets investment in our society. The proportion in recent four years is about 0.55%- 1.06%. So its influence should be said to be very small. "
Wang Yiming pointed out that the main factors that promoted China's sustained and rapid economic development in the past seven years were: high savings rate, huge investment in urbanization and infrastructure construction, upgrading of residents' consumption structure, huge market potential, improved labor productivity and active participation in economic globalization. These basic driving forces for China's economic development will not change because of the end of the Olympic Games.
Wang Yiming also admitted that the Olympic Games will bring opportunities to the development of China, but it may also bring challenges to the economic development of China. With the profound changes in the global economic environment, the weakening of economic growth driven by external demand, and the cyclical correction of China's economy, the uncertain factors of China's economic trend have increased both internally and externally. The sustained and rapid economic development is not only under the pressure of periodic adjustment and economic transformation, but also under the superimposed influence of "post-Olympic effect" to some extent. Therefore, we should actively amplify the positive impact of the Olympic Games on economic development and effectively deal with all possible negative impacts.
Wang Yiming said: "We will continue to play the role of Olympic venues and related infrastructure to improve people's quality of life. The second and more important point is that we should promote the concept of "green Olympics, high-tech Olympics and people's Olympics" and promote the transformation of our economic development mode; Third, we must make full use of the leading role of the Olympic Games in the modern service industry. "
Wang Yiming also said that in order to minimize the negative impact of the "post-Olympic effect", it is necessary to actively expand the radiation-driven effect of the Olympic host and co-host cities and promote regional economic development; Give full play to the spiritual wealth and brand effect brought by hosting the Olympic Games.
Wang Yiming believes that compared with the short-term pulling effect of Olympic venues and related infrastructure on China's economic growth, the Olympic Games has a longer-term and more lasting positive effect on improving China's national quality, improving the investment environment, increasing openness and enhancing its international image.
As for the prospect of China's economic development, Wang Yiming thinks it has great potential.
He said: "Our industrialization is in the middle stage, and the level of urbanization is still lower than the world average. Our per capita GDP in 2007 was about $2,500, which is far from the level of developed countries. So we say that China has a very large investment space in industrial development (or) infrastructure construction and urban construction. "
According to the calculation of the National Economic Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, hosting the 2008 Olympic Games will boost China's national economic growth by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points every year in the next seven years. If so, according to China's GDP of $654.38+000 billion in 2000, the direct promotion of hosting the Olympic Games every year will exceed $3 billion. It can be seen that hosting the Olympic Games will bring great opportunities to China and promote the development of infrastructure construction (especially Beijing), sports industry and tourism in China.
According to the commitment of China's Olympic bid delegation, the overall project of Beijing Olympic Games, including building Olympic infrastructure, building traffic roads, developing communication systems and improving Beijing's air and water quality, will cost 48 billion US dollars. Such a large investment will inevitably bring about very considerable output. The broadcasting rights and sponsorship share of the International Olympic Committee alone may be as high as 654.38+000 billion yuan. Others, such as tourism, will also get new development opportunities. Experts predict that in the six years of preparation, the tourism industry will grow by 100% every year, and the income will increase by $5 billion. $30 billion in six years. It's 250 billion, which is 1 times that of the Olympic Games, and it's 10 billion dollars. In this way, the increase in tourism revenue alone will exceed 30 billion yuan. Hosting the Olympic Games will also bring huge business opportunities to other provinces and cities. For example, Tianjin airport will be expanded; Another example is that a large number of sports equipment needed for the Olympic Games will be produced in other places, a large number of building materials and equipment needed for Beijing's ecological environment project will also be produced in other places, and a large number of consumer goods will also be supplied in other places, which will play a stimulating role in the economy of all parts of the country.