First of all, the continuous increase of population is the key factor for the healthy and sustainable development of real estate. Some people have housing demand, and the housing demand is strong, then the completed residential products can be sold, which in turn will promote the prosperity and development of the upstream and downstream related industries of real estate. It can also be understood from another angle that the new policy indirectly saves more reserve demand for the future development of the property market.
Secondly, under the background of the current housing saturation and the continuous decline of new population, the population flow between large and small cities has gradually changed from incremental flow to stock flow. Although there will be no problem in the short term, this flow pattern is obviously unsustainable in the long run. If we liberalize the three-child policy, we can not only maintain a stable population inflow in megacities and megacities, but also get necessary supplements in small and medium-sized cities.
Furthermore, the liberalization of three-child birth, supplemented by perfect incentive measures, can not only inject new vitality into the property market, but also reduce the cost pressure of raising children, dispel the worries of young people about getting married and having children, and mobilize the enthusiasm of young people to have more children, thus eliminating some people's pessimistic expectations of the property market because the population may enter negative growth, and stabilizing and continuing the healthy and long-term development of the market.
Then, after the implementation of the three-child policy, family members will also have new increments, corresponding to the increase in housing market demand. Obviously, due to the increase of population, the past two-bedroom and three-bedroom house is definitely not enough to live in, and the area of the house and the choice of residential products have changed.
First of all, in terms of housing area, the bigger the house, the more comfortable it is to live in. According to the current domestic per capita living area of 40 square meters, a family of five may need a house of 200 square meters; If you consider taking care of your children and need the help of your parents, it will reach 240 square meters; If you want to expand the activity space of family members and further improve the living experience, you need to add some functional rooms (gym, guest room, study room, storage room, etc.). ), it will be "not capped." Of course, this analysis is purely theoretical. After all, housing prices in cities are very expensive now, and the income growth rate has never kept up with the rise in housing prices. How big a house to buy depends on the financial situation of each family and the willingness to have more children.
Secondly, judging from the number of rooms, a house with few bedrooms is obviously not enough to live in. A family of five should have at least four bedrooms. The reason is that if children share a room when they are young, it is indeed feasible in the short term, but the long-term problem comes, because the pool area of high-rise residential buildings is very large now, and children will be crowded when they grow up a little. Moreover, the age span of brothers and sisters is not large, and they basically grew up at the same time. In the meantime, it is impossible for anyone to vacate the room in advance. In addition, due to different hobbies between brothers and sisters, there may be some contradictions when they grow up, and living in one room is not conducive to study, so one bedroom per person is the most basic configuration. However, in the current situation of high housing prices in various cities, the cost of buying a large-sized house will be higher, especially in big cities, where there are millions and tens of millions of houses, and the replacement pressure is great. Therefore, the range of families that can have many children has shrunk a lot, which may be limited to a few wealthy families and some public officials with stable income.
Another problem is that at present, the residential products on the market are mainly two rooms with 80 to 100 square meters, three rooms with 100 to 120 square meters, and four rooms with 120 to 150 square meters, which have only entered the market in recent two years, but the quantity is very limited. The reason is that in the past, the country implemented strict family planning policies, and most of the post-80 s and post-90 s were only children. At that time, a small two-bedroom and three-bedroom house was enough, and developers built houses around demand. In addition, in the early days, everyone was not rich economically, and even if a large-scale house was built, no one bought it. The policy should also take into account the just-needed purchasing power, requiring 90 square meters of units to account for 70% of residential buildings.
Under the three-child policy, it is more suitable for multi-member families, and the houses that can really "smell" in the future may only be the following categories:
The first category: super-large villas. The area of villas is generally 200,300 square meters for small suites and thousands of square meters for large suites. There are many rooms to meet the needs of many family members, and there are also various functional rooms to meet the needs of leisure and entertainment. After each floor is separated, it is a world of its own, which is actually equivalent to commercial housing, so villas are the best choice for families with many children. The only drawback is that villas are generally located in the suburbs of cities, so it is inconvenient to pick up and drop off children. Then the solution is to reform the current education system, so that children in villa areas can also enjoy the opportunity to study in the city, but at present, this is unlikely and unnecessary. Because wealthy local tyrants generally have both school districts in the city and villas in the suburbs. Moreover, after the promulgation of the "villa purchase restriction order", villas have become scarce goods and will bear the brunt of fragrance in the future.
The second category: the large flat floor located in the city center. For the middle class, if they don't have sufficient funds to buy villas and school districts at the same time, most of them will choose the big flat floor in the city center. After all, the flat floor area is similar to that of a villa, reaching 200 or 300 square meters, which has many advantages. Unlike villas, stairs take up a lot of space, and there are old people and children at home, so it is more convenient to live. The key is to avoid some defects of villas while enjoying all kinds of resources in the city.
The third category: multi-storey garden houses in low-density communities. For wealthy families in small and medium-sized cities, after the promulgation of the "height limit order", many people transferred their real estate to such products. Garden villa has the advantages of low floor area ratio, high green coverage, good ventilation and lighting effect, small pool area and large value-added space, and will be a rich gathering area in small and medium-sized cities in the future.
The fourth category: quadrangles. The courtyard is similar to a villa, but it is not a villa. The villa has a single row layout and the courtyard is a closed structure. Its characteristic is that there are houses around the courtyard, which are divided into two hospitals, three hospitals and quadrangles. At present, this product is rare in the market, only appearing in some third-and fourth-tier cities with relatively loose land resources. Judging from the market sales situation, it is very popular with high-income families, and the properties sold are all robbed.
The fifth category is a house with four bedrooms and two halls. This kind of house will definitely be popular in the first-and second-tier cities with the highest housing prices, with an area of about 100 square meter. Although the area of each room is not very large, it can maximize the use of space, similar to the 89-square-meter small three-bedroom market developed before. It has the characteristics of "small sparrow with complete functions", and can be changed into five-bedroom as needed, which is a very high-quality improved product in big cities. In small and medium-sized cities, a set of four rooms and two halls with an area of about 1.50 square meters is an improved room for middle-income families. For young couples with the Sambo project, such a house is the most popular.