A gym often doesn't sell annual cards according to the capacity rate. If it can accommodate 500 people, it will sell 2000 annual cards. On the one hand, customers will not all come at the same time. On the other hand, betting close to 1000 people may not last long and will not come in the end. The gym annual card expires, and many people haven't been there many times. These annual cards, which have not been visited many times, are the result of gambling in the gym.
Gambling, gambling is probability.
I reflect that in addition to the gym in my life, in fact, gambling patterns abound around me.
For example, when using e-mail, E-mail tells you to send you 32G capacity for free, B-mail tells you to send you 100G for free, and then you choose B-mail, and C sees that all capacities are free.
Do you think it's a good deal at this time, and it's all free, so there will be no psychological threshold to use it, and C mailbox is the best. But in fact, the average mailbox capacity of one person may be 1g (for example), and everything else is redundant. It is precisely because of this that we can send unlimited user capacity, which is unnecessary anyway. Even if it is occasionally useful, it is more than 1g, and the per capita is lower than1g.
In addition to the mailbox, you can buy 100M broadband. Actually, you don't need 100M at all. How much capacity can you get by buying a server, how much G storage space can you get by uploading photos, the capacity of treatment cards in beauty salons, photo albums and so on. , is the ability that you don't need.
Why do we always fall into the gambling trap?
We often choose "free email" instead of "32G free email", although we can only use the capacity of1g.
1, please remove the psychological threshold.
Ordinary consumers have no idea about 32G, 100G, and they don't know how much they usually use, let alone how much capacity an email and a photo occupy. And all free means no matter how much you use, just use it. This kind of free is to clear the consumer's use concerns and psychological threshold.
2. Psychological inertia
For example, going to the gym 60 times, the second card 1500 yuan, the annual card is 2000 yuan. Many people will choose to buy an annual card, but in fact, counting the second card 60 times is equivalent to going to 1-2 times a week, but in fact many people can't do the average frequency of 1-2 times a week.
The reason why I buy more expensive things that I can't use is because I am mentally lazy. I don't want to count how many times I have been here, but I like to enjoy the right to come to the gym unlimited times.
I like the feeling of choice, not how much I need.
3. Greed
It's always good to spend more, but you get a lot of feelings when you spend less.
Consumers, how to avoid gambling traps?
In fact, the more rational people are, the more they understand their own needs, and the easier it is to choose what they need, rather than what they think they want.
Think about what you need, such as fitness, and count it as 50 times a week. You can buy a second card first, and then buy it when you run out.
In fact, we are often more persistent than we think. . .
How many people decided to learn English, bought a word book and never turned it over; Decided to exercise, bought beautiful fitness clothes, and then went once and never went again; Promise yourself to keep reading for no more than three days every day, because all kinds of things are abandoned; Decided to go to bed before 12 every day and continue to stay up late in less than a week.
The insistence at the beginning of things doesn't mean anything. Sticking to a month before making a plan is often more successful than making a long-term plan at a hot moment.
Of course, as a consumer, there is a rule above all business principles, that is, "I buy well." You don't need to calculate the price/performance ratio, how to buy it, understand and think, just be happy. Of course, this is also the favorite consumer of the business.
As an enterprise, how to make good use of the rules of gambling?
Measure the average number of users who need to use, and initially give the number of gifts far higher than the user's demand. After a trial period, if the average number of users does not increase significantly, it means that the user needs are basically unchanged.
At this time, you can start all free, because even if all free, the actual usage can remain unchanged, but all free breaks the psychological concerns of users, and the purchase conversion rate will rise.
Valuation adjustment mechanism
The first time I heard about gambling, it was a gambling agreement signed by a friend's startup company and investors. For example, venture capital 5 million invested in this company. If you achieve 6.5438+million users a year, his 5 million shares 654.38+00%, but if you fail to achieve 6.5438+million users a year, his 5 million shares 80%.
In fact, I have always hated the gambling agreement, because the gambling agreement is a short-term cooperation way that puts investors and entrepreneurs on the opposite side. Although some investors will say that I want to put pressure on him, I also hope that he can meet the gambling conditions. As long as this project develops, I am more willing to take a small share.
But this is a way of coercing people to do things, not "I want", which will make entrepreneurs slowly lose their initial heart, not because they love something and create value, but because they have to move forward to avoid dilution of shares. Compared with the investment mode of foreign venture capitalists and entrepreneurs, the short-term effect on gambling is more obvious and unreasonable.
In addition to gambling on venture capital, life is actually the place where gambling is the most.
A friend went to Korea before and shared an interesting business model with me. Let me share with you:
Some shops in Korea don't rent by paying monthly rent like us, but by making love for 20 years.
You can get a 60% discount on the rent for a sexual intercourse for 20 years, and the rent will be returned to you after 20 years, which is equivalent to letting you rent a shop for 20 years.
For the owner who rents a storefront, he will take this storefront as his own property and carefully manage it.
Landlords use the 20-year rent for investment and financial management, and only need to ensure that the annual rate of return is greater than the 20-year rent. For example, the money invested in a project has a return rate of 20% every year, and after a few years, it will soon earn interest, which is much higher than the rent itself.
When I heard this example at that time, I was thinking, if yellow diamonds and green diamonds are introduced to buy yellow diamonds at one time for 20 years, they can all be returned after 20 years, or 99% can be returned (to avoid some legal problems), will it greatly increase sales? For example, only 10% people buy it, but 20% people buy it?
This fee will be taken to the strategy department for investment. According to the current visible return on investment, it will definitely be far greater than the income brought by the value-added part, and it will not occupy the existing funds. You can also put part of it for some protective hedging investment to spread risks. Generally speaking, the income in 20 years will be higher than the profit brought by users buying value-added services.
Everyone calls this statement finance. Of course, different countries should encounter different legal problems, so this factor is not considered here.
These methods are essentially gambling, and the return on gambling investment and financial management is greater than the income from selling products for 20 years.
All bets are calculated by probability.
finally
Gambling is neither good nor bad, but a business strategy. For merchants, calculate the probability of various situations, and then choose the mode with high probability. When the number of samples reaches a certain number, the winning probability tends to be constant;
For consumers, it is either clear about their own needs when buying, so as to buy things "on demand", or not to think too much, and buying happiness is king.
Attachment: Gambling in investment
As mentioned above, the investment clause is the most common gambling agreement in reality, so what is a gambling agreement?
1. What are the gambling terms?
According to the above elements, you can also easily write a framework of gambling terms, such as "investors enter by way of capital increase, and the original shareholders promise that the target company will go public before the end of a certain year." If the gambling target is not reached, the original shareholder will buy back the investor's equity. "
Complement this framework and get a relatively complete gambling clause, such as:
(1) The target company plans to increase its registered capital by 20 million yuan, and the investor will contribute 1 100 million yuan to subscribe for the capital increase, of which 20 million yuan will enter the registered capital of the target company and the remaining 80 million yuan will be used as the capital reserve of the target company. After the capital increase is completed, the investor holds 20% equity of the target company.
(2) If the target company fails to be successfully listed before 20 16 12 3 1, or has been unable to be listed before 20 16 12 3 1, the investor has the right to require the original shareholders to buy back all or part of the target company in cash.
(3) The formula for calculating the share repurchase price is p = i×( 1+ r× n)-div, that is, the share repurchase price = the total investment invested by each capital increase party when acquiring the equity ×( 1+ repurchase premium rate × the actual number of days from the date when each investor pays the investment funds to the date when the repurchase terms are fulfilled ÷360)- each capital increase.
2. Why is there gambling?
In a word, gambling is to protect the interests of investors. If the gambling target is achieved, investors can make money to quit, and if the gambling target is not achieved, investors can get compensation. Literally, gambling can basically ensure that investors only make a profit, so it can also explain why investors usually win by gambling.
Gambling is originally a valuation adjustment mechanism. For example, in the above example, the target company is valued at 500 million yuan. Since it is a valuation, in case of miscalculation, it is necessary to redefine the rights and interests of investors and financiers according to the actual value of the target company after investment.
Investors tend to gamble because they are afraid of being misled, cheated, having to add a spell to stimulate the target company to make money quickly, and leaving a way out. Almost 100% of VC/PE institutions have used gambling. Specifically, about half of VC/PE investment projects have gambling, and even some investors expect to resolve risks through gambling. Domestic RMB funds are more impetuous than US dollar funds and want to make quick money, so the demand for gambling is also higher. Because angel investors want to bet on the terms, the significance is not particularly great, so angels turn to bet relatively little.
The original shareholders of the target company and the target company generally refused to gamble at first, but for the dream of listing and so on. Many people "can't manage these details." For example, I heard a simple small shareholder say, "The listing-related documents (referring to the investment and financing documents containing gambling) won't let me participate. Do you want to take me to play ..."
3. For the original shareholders and the target company, winning the gambling is really a win.
For the original shareholders and the target company, the gambling goal has been achieved, and even if they really win, they can finally wipe their sweat and catch their breath. Whether the gambling target is net profit or listing, the completion indicates that the company is in good condition and investors and financiers have a bright future to look forward to.
If the gambling target is not reached, it will inevitably turn against investors. In reality, about 60% of the gambling, the target enterprise failed to achieve the gambling goal. Of course, more than 90% of the cases that fail to achieve the purpose of gambling are settled through consultation, and only a few of them fight and go to the court arbitration tribunal.
For investors, winning in gambling is actually mostly losing.
If the gambling target is not achieved, the original shareholders and/or the target company will compensate the investors. On the surface, investors seem to win, but in fact, investors are crushed because:
1. The expected income of the fund is destroyed by dozens of times and hundreds of times, and the expected carry of the manager is also destroyed.
2. Is the compensation for this kind of gambling also called money? !
There is no hope of quitting. Let the original shareholders buy back? That's the way the company is, the original shareholders have no money to buy back. Let someone else be the receiver? You should ask other investors, who is blind?
For example, although investors won the bet on Prince Milk, they actually lost completely. 5438+065438+2006 10, three investment banks, Lianying Investment, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, signed a gambling agreement with Li Tuchun, the founder of Taizi Milk Group: in the first three years after the capital injection of the three institutions, if the performance of Taizi Milk increases by more than 50%, the equity of the investor can be reduced; If it fails to achieve 30% performance growth, Li Tuchun will lose its controlling stake. In 2008, the capital chain of Taizi Milk was broken, and three investment banks became takers in accordance with the "gambling agreement", wanting to cry without tears.
5. How to win?
Isn't it crazy to want a win-win situation at the gambling table? Actually, it's not. The core concern of both investors and financiers is not gambling. Although the two sides have different interests in many aspects, they both expect investment to increase in value. As long as the investment increases, both sides can still win.
But look at the current gambling clauses, which are all prepared for the future, only covering the investment period and withdrawal period, and have no influence on the appreciation of the operating period. Some people say that agreeing on profit targets or listing targets cannot promote the management team to work hard? Maybe they can, maybe they can make a profit by making false accounts, and even let them run away when they expect gambling to fail.
In addition to profitability and listing, there are actually many gambling targets; In addition to repurchase, cash compensation and equity ratio adjustment, there are actually many game mechanisms. For the preservation and appreciation of investment during the management period, a diversified game mechanism can be set up. For example, if an enterprise can't hire a new CEO within a certain period of time, the investor has the right to increase the corresponding board seats, and if the target company obtains important patents, it will increase the management option, and then the excess profit will be used as a reward for the management.