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After a lot of investigation and analysis, Personal Finance magazine made a comprehensive evaluation of the housing prices in 37 most influential cities and more than 40 small and medium-sized cities in China, trying to provide a powerful panoramic guide for property buyers and real estate speculators.
Who is the new pioneer of "real estate speculation city"
At present, the real estate market in China is facing the biggest change after 1993 Hainan and Beihai real estate bubbles burst.
From June 5438 to October 2005 10, the price of commercial housing in Taiyuan turned for the better, with a decrease of 25.63%.
In 2004, the total transaction area of commercial housing in Qingdao four districts decreased by 26% compared with 2003;
Since June 65438+ 10, 2004, the real estate transaction volume in Wenzhou has been declining continuously. In June 65438+February, the transaction volume of new houses decreased by 53% compared with June165438+1October, and the second-hand houses also decreased by 32%.
House prices in Xiamen also began to "swing" in 2004. Among them, the average price in June was 5438+ 10, which was nearly 900 yuan lower than that in September.
At the same time, a large number of Shanghai real estate speculators who lost confidence in local high housing prices began to advance into central and western cities such as Wuhan, Nanchang and Chongqing, seeking more stable investment income; Real estate speculation began to spread to small and medium-sized cities. In 2004, the house price in Jiaonan, Jiaodong Peninsula, Yancheng, Jiangsu Province soared by 3 1%, Huai 'an by 30%, Baoding in Hebei by 25% and Zhanjiang in western Guangdong by 19%.
..... There are indications that after years of high-speed rise, housing prices in a number of "real estate speculation old cities" such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Qingdao and Xiamen have exhausted their appreciation potential, and those who have no houses are "discouraged" and real estate speculators are eager to move. The aura of these "old real estate cities" is no longer so dazzling.
Ancient, modern and back-and-forth things have changed. So, who is becoming the pioneer of the new round of house price appreciation?
In 37 big cities, where is the biggest housing price bubble?
Who is becoming the pioneer of the new round of house price appreciation? Let's take a look at the counter-proposition of this proposition: which city has the biggest housing price bubble?
According to the survey of Personal Finance magazine, in February 2005, the average price per square meter of commercial housing in the 37 most influential cities in China was as follows-
Average house price and per capita income ranking of 37 major cities
Average house price ranking Average house price per square meter of urban commercial housing in 2004 (yuan) Per capita disposable income of families (yuan) Per capita income ranking
1 Wenzhou 9278 17727 2
2 Shanghai 8627 16683 4
3 Hangzhou 72 10 14565 7
4 Beijing 6232 15638 6
5 Shenzhen 6037 27596 1
6 Ningbo 5900 15882 5
7 Guangzhou 5660 16884 3
8 Xiamen 5 156 14443 9
9 Nanjing 49601160211
10 Tianjin 47601146712
1 1 Qingdao 46391108914
12 Suzhou 4460 1445 1 8
13 Dalian 42411037817
14 Fuzhou 3368114313
15 Jinan 31721200510
Kunming 3 150 9045 24
17 Guiyang 3 100 8989 25
18 Taiyuan 3050 9353 22
19 Xi 'an 3007 8544 33
20 Shenyang 2926 Due to the influx of foreign real estate speculators, some cities are also experiencing soaring housing prices and bubbles. In 2004, the top 12 cities with the highest proportion of foreigners buying houses were:
Ranking of the proportion of foreigners buying houses (2004)
Rank the proportion of foreigners buying houses in cities
1 Taiyuan 80%
2 Beijing 60%
3 Dalian 60%
4 Zhengzhou 55%
5 Chengdu 5 1%
6 Guangzhou 50%
7 Hangzhou 50%
8 Fuzhou 42%
9 Xiamen 39%
10 Haikou 36%
1 1 Chongqing 26%
12 Shanghai 20%
Taiyuan —— Adventurer's Paradise of Coal Boss
In 2004, China was short of energy and coal prices rose sharply, and the bosses of Shanxi coal coke industry made a fortune. But this is not good news for Taiyuan citizens: a large number of Shanxi people who made a fortune from coal came to the provincial capital to buy houses, and house prices soared. According to the data of Taiyuan Real Estate Bureau, more than 80% of the buyers in Taiyuan come from inside and outside the province, and there are very few buyers in this city and outside the province. In this huge "outsourcing population", the main consumers are concentrated in Datong and Yangquan, the main coal-producing areas in Shanxi. Among them, buyers of high-end residential areas such as Sunshine Zone and Sunshine Coast are almost all "coal bosses" in these places (of course, these coal bosses also showed high interest in Beijing's real estate in 2004).
According to the survey, the proportion of investment houses in Taiyuan housing market exceeds 25%, exceeding the warning line of 20%, which undoubtedly brings great risks to Taiyuan housing prices. As the absolute value of house prices in Taiyuan is not too high at present, it ranks 16 in the list of house price bubbles in 37 major cities. However, the housing market in Taiyuan has revealed a "dangerous phenomenon". From June, 5438 to October, 2005/kloc-0, the price of its commercial housing suddenly fell by 25.63%. Therefore, people who are going to buy a house in Taiyuan should be extra cautious, and it is a good choice to "have money to wait and see" for a while.
Dalian-Northeast Real Estate "Heat Island"
As we all know, Dalian is a very successful city, its reputation far exceeds its economic strength, and its housing prices are far ahead in the northeast, which is far beyond the affordability of Dalian citizens.
By the end of 2004, 60% of the total commercial housing sales in Dalian were purchased by foreign residents mainly in Northeast China. It seems that overnight, rich people from all over Northeast China have gathered in Dalian, and owning a mansion in Dalian has become a status symbol, regardless of the price. Foreigners are the initiator of high housing prices in Dalian, which also makes Dalian the seventh place in the real estate bubble list.
Hangzhou-an expensive paradise
Some people say that Zhejiang's economy is a "puppy economy", and there are almost as many small bosses with a net worth of one million or even ten million as there are stones along the Qiantang River. These wealthy bosses will naturally not forget the paradise on earth. More than 50% of the commercial houses in Hangzhou, the provincial capital, are purchased by non-Zhejiang people. Ordinary people in Hangzhou can't afford to buy houses at all, so they can only look at the ocean and sigh.
Although the local government has introduced various "new policies" to restrict real estate speculation, the rapid economic development in Zhejiang and the excellent "Qian Jing" in Hangzhou, as well as the real estate bubble in Hangzhou, will continue in recent years, keeping pace with the Shanghai housing market.
According to the survey, Shanghai Outer Ring Investment House accounts for nearly 40%, and Hangzhou City accounts for about 32%, ranking third in the housing bubble list.
Xiamen-Southeast Real Estate "Heat Island"
In May, 2004, the house price in Xiamen fell for the first time in history, and then it began to fluctuate greatly. Among them, in June, 10 dropped nearly to 900 yuan compared with September, and rose to a new high of more than 5 100 yuan at the end of the year.
In 2004, a major change in Xiamen's real estate market was that Xiamen locals replaced the original outsiders and became the main group of buyers, accounting for 6 1% of the total number of buyers. The proportion of foreigners buying houses in Quanzhou has dropped from 70% in previous years to 39% now.
Compared with Fuzhou, Xiamen's housing price is not only high, but also fluctuates greatly (the average price of commercial housing in Fuzhou increased by 6% in 2004, while that in Xiamen was 19%), which is more speculative than Fuzhou's real estate and is a veritable "hot island" for real estate speculation in southeast China.
It is estimated that the housing price in Xiamen will be relatively stable in 2005, and the increase rate should be 7%-9%. Of course, the premise is that foreign home buyers will not make a comeback, otherwise it is not clear whether they will reproduce the increase of 19% in 2004.
At present, the proportion of investment houses in Xiamen is still above 25%.
Who is the pioneer of a new wave of real estate speculation?
Contrary to Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xiamen and other cities "overdrawing" the potential of future housing price increases in advance, the real estate in these cities can be said to be ready to go.
Wuhan-the "leading sheep" of the central housing market
Wuhan has always been an important town in central China and the radiation pole of the development strategy of "Rise of Central China". In recent years, the economy has maintained a sustained growth of more than 10%, and the development prospect is very promising.
However, the prospect of Wuhan real estate has not been fully realized, and even the Wenzhou real estate speculators who make waves everywhere have not set their eyes on Wuhan's "beach rush". In 2004, 90% of the buyers in Wuhan were local residents, while the proportion of foreign buyers was only 10%. Among all buyers, the proportion of investment purchases is 8%.
Among 37 big cities, Wuhan ranks 20th in income level and 22nd in house price, which shows that the current house price in Wuhan is still very worthwhile.
Smart Shanghai real estate developers have noticed this "land of hope" and flocked to Wuhan, and a large number of Shanghai real estate speculators have also left Shanghai to seek higher return on investment in Wuhan. At present, Wuhan is the most popular city for Shanghai real estate speculators to enter the central region.
Changsha-Unity is the power to push up housing prices.
In the strategy of "Rise of Central China", Changsha, Wuhan and Zhengzhou are considered to be the three cities that benefit the most, especially the integration process of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, and their development prospects are also very optimistic.
Like Wuhan, the proportion of foreigners buying houses in Changsha does not exceed 10%, but the proportion of investment houses is higher, reaching 16%.
Among 37 big cities, Changsha's per capita income ranks 15, but the house price is only 23, which is worth the money. There is a rumor: not long ago, a management department in Changsha organized a group of developers to hold a meeting to discuss how to make the average price of commercial housing in Changsha exceed 3,000 yuan. Of course, this will bring more income such as taxes and land transfer fees to relevant departments.
In fact, Changsha and Nanchang are also one of the key central cities valued by Shanghai real estate developers and Shanghai real estate investors.
In 2004, the average price of commercial housing in Changsha rose by 1 1%, and the increase this year is expected to be between 9%- 12%.
Guangzhou and Shenzhen-Evergreen Trees in the Real Estate Market
Among the most dynamic Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and Pearl River Delta in China today, the price in the Pearl River Delta is the lowest, roughly 20% lower than that in the Yangtze River Delta, and the price level is basically balanced with the income level and consumption purchasing power of local residents.
Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the leaders of the Pearl River Delta, have unlimited development prospects, not only with rapid economic development, but also with sufficient stamina. These factors have laid a solid "bottom" for local real estate. Therefore, the real estate investment bubble in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is relatively small. Even if the real estate can't appreciate sharply in a short time, its sustained and steady rise is very guaranteed, and it is an "evergreen tree" for steady investment. In this sense, the housing market in Shenzhen and Guangzhou is like an excellent marathon runner. Although not as fast as sprinters, they have good endurance and can last for a long time.
In 2004, the price increase of commercial housing in Shenzhen was 5.28%, which was lower than that of most cities in China, but it was still the highest increase in Shenzhen in recent years.
Chongqing and Chengdu —— A Tale of Two Cities with Rising Prices in the West
Chongqing, the only municipality directly under the central government in central and western China, is rapidly developing into the economic center of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Together with Chengdu and Xi, it is called "the three outstanding figures in the west".
The price increase of commercial housing in Chongqing in 2004 was 10.3%. Compared with developed areas, the housing price in Chongqing is at least twice as cheap. In 2004, among the buyers in Chongqing, the proportion of foreigners was 26%, only a little more than half of the neighboring Chengdu (5 1%). This seems to show that Chongqing's housing market has just blown up some "bubbles", and now is the best time to enter. In 2004, the rental price of housing in Chongqing ranked third in the big cities in China, which is also one of the reasons for the rise in housing prices.
In fact, Chongqing is the first choice for Shanghai real estate developers and Shanghai real estate investors in the western region.
Chengdu's per capita income ranks first in the west and its economy is relatively prosperous. Although the title of "the fourth city" is somewhat flattering, it is quite pertinent to say that the consumption power of citizens in Chengdu, Nanjing and Hangzhou is basically at the same level. In contrast, the housing price bubble in Chengdu is much smaller than that in Nanjing and Hangzhou.
At present, there are quite a few real estate speculators in Wenzhou and other places in Chengdu. In 2004, the house price in Chengdu rose by 17%, and the average price per square meter of some fine buildings in urban areas rose by 1 10,000 yuan. In 2005, although the rapid rising trend of Chengdu's housing prices will slow down, because Chongqing's housing prices have always taken Chengdu as the "elevation", with the rapid follow-up of Chongqing's housing prices, Chengdu's housing prices will certainly respond, and it is very likely that Chengdu and Chongqing will jointly stage a "Tale of Two Cities" in 2005.
Shenyang-the Potential Champion in Northeast China
As one of the key leading cities in Northeast China, Shenyang's housing price is much cheaper than Dalian's, which deserves the attention of foreign investors.
At present, the net profit per square meter of Shenyang house price is basically in 300 yuan -500 yuan, and the return on net assets is between 10%-20%, while the return per square meter in some southern cities can reach 50%. The price of commercial housing in Shenyang is in the middle and lower level among the coastal cities in China. In the eyes of many real estate speculators, the Shenyang property market, like Wuhan and Chongqing, has considerable room for appreciation.
Hohhot and Yinchuan —— "Leaders" in Northwest China
Northwest China is the region with the smallest housing price bubble in China. Except for Xi 'an and Lanzhou, which were ranked in the housing price bubble list 1 1 and 19 respectively, Hohhot, Urumqi, Xining and Yinchuan were all ranked 32nd. In 2005, Hohhot and Yinchuan will be the cities with large price increases.
On the list of housing price bubbles in 37 major cities, Hohhot ranks last with the smallest bubble. In 2004, the per capita disposable income of Hohhot increased by more than 20% over the previous year, exceeding 1 10,000 yuan, second only to Chengdu in western cities, while the house price was the third lowest among 37 big cities (only higher than Xining and Yinchuan).
At present, Hohhot is in the third climax of real estate development, and the housing price base is relatively low. In 2005, the room for price increase was above 10%.
In 2004, Yinchuan's housing rental price ranked second in big cities in China, second only to Hangzhou. The price increase in Yinchuan this year is expected to be 12%- 15%.
Who are the star small-cap stocks?
There is a fire at the city gate, which affects the fish in the pool. The soaring housing prices in major cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim have also driven the rapid rise of small and medium-sized cities around.
In 2004, the house price in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province rose by 30.9%, far exceeding that in Nanjing, Suzhou and other cities.
Due to the high housing prices in southern Jiangsu and other places, a large amount of real estate capital began to transfer to northern Jiangsu. The house prices in Lianyungang, Huai 'an, Xuzhou, Suqian and Yancheng in northern Jiangsu all exceeded/kloc-0.5 million yuan, an increase of more than 20%. In Xuzhou, more and more foreign buyers such as Sunan and Wenzhou began to appear. Generally speaking, the trend of "property price chorus" between small and medium-sized cities in southern Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu and Nanjing is obvious, and it is wise for residents in these cities to buy houses as soon as possible.
In 2005, the real estate industry in the third-and fourth-tier cities in China will make great efforts, and the house price will increase by 10%- 15%, which is also an understanding of the 2005 China real estate annual meeting. Some experts believe that the real mainstream role of China's real estate industry must be small and medium-sized housing enterprises in third-tier cities (prefecture-level cities with a population of 400,000-800,000) and fourth-tier cities (county-level cities and counties with a population of 654.38+ 10,000-300,000).
Yangtze River Delta 15 Urban Housing Price Bubble Ranking
From the following table, we can see how many years it will take a family of three to buy a simple two-bedroom apartment in the Yangtze River Delta 15 city.
Ranked as a city in 2004, the per capita disposable income of a family (yuan), the annual income of a family of three (yuan), the annual savings (yuan), the house price per square meter (yuan), and the average total price of a simple two-bedroom apartment (70 square meters) (yuan). How many years does it take to buy a simple two-bedroom apartment?
1 Shanghai16683 50049 28528 8627 603890 21.17
2 Hangzhou14565 43695 249067210 504700 20.26
3 Nanjing11602 3480619839 4960 34720017.50
4 Ningbo15882 47646 27158 5900 41300015.438+0
5 Nantong10937328118702 3963 277410/4.83.
6 Shaoxing15676 47028 26806 4895 34265012.78
7 Yangzhou 98512955316845 3064 21448012.73.
8 Suzhou1445143353 2471kloc-0/4460 31220012.63.
9 Wuxi13588 40764 23235 3902 2731401.76
10 Changzhou12868 38604 22004 3640 25480011.58
1 1 Huzhou13664 40992 23365 3777 26439011.32
12 Zhenjiang10858 3257418567 2960 2072001.16.
13 Taizhou 9695 2908516578 262018340011.06
14 Zhoushan13747 4124123507 3208 224560 9.55
15 Jiaxing1439243176246103132179108.85.
15 urban average13231442013.49
The economic development level of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is basically the same, but the overall real estate bubble is much larger. The average life expectancy of the Yangtze River Delta 15 city is 13.49 years, which is much higher than that of the Pearl River Delta 10 city (9.05 years) and the Bohai Rim region (12.26 years).
Around Shanghai, housing prices have been generally too high, even the average price of commercial housing in Songjiang has reached 4500 yuan, and Jiaxing, located between Hangzhou and Shanghai, is a new hot spot for Shanghai investors.
Around Nanjing, housing prices in Zhenjiang, Huai 'an, Chuzhou, Wuhu, Jurong and Maanshan have obviously entered the rising channel. The housing prices in these cities are generally around 2200 yuan, which is similar to that in Xuzhou, so there is still great growth potential. 8880 29
2 1 Chengdu 2868 10394 16
22 Wuhan 2858 9564 20
23 Changsha 28251102115
24 Nanning 28 17 8060 34
25 Nanchang 2777 8690 30
26 Chongqing 2732 922 1 23
27 Zhengzhou 2650 9364 2 1
28 Harbin 2574 8940 27
29 Shijiazhuang 2470 8622 3 1
30 Lanzhou 2438 7684 36
3 1 Haikou 2330 898 1 26
32 Urumqi 2280 9729 19
Hefei 2220 86 10 32
34 Changchun 2 19 1 8900 28
35 Hohhot19601016618
36 Yinchuan 1930 7984 35
37 Xining 182 1 7626 37
37 The average urban area is 3802 1 1357-
In 37 big cities, there is a big gap between house prices and per capita income. So, where is the biggest real estate bubble?
Take an ordinary family of three in Shanghai as an example. In 2004, the city's per capita disposable income was 16683 yuan, and the disposable income of a family of three was 50049 yuan. According to the current consumption rate of 43% of China residents, the average annual savings of a family of three (57% of annual income) is 28,528 yuan. At present, the average price of commercial housing in Shanghai (within the outer ring) means that an ordinary family of three in Shanghai needs to buy a house of 70 square meters. According to the current income and housing price level, it will take an average of 2 1. 17 years.
2 1. 17! It's not that I don't know, it's shock. However, it is not Shanghainese who need patience most when buying a house. People in Wenzhou need patience most. They need 2 1.43 years.
In turn, the real estate bubbles in 37 major cities:
A survey of housing price bubbles in 37 major cities
Ranked as a city in 2004, the per capita disposable income of a family (yuan), the annual income of a family of three (yuan), the annual savings (yuan), the house price per square meter (yuan), and the average total price of a simple two-bedroom apartment (70 square meters) (yuan). How many years does it take to buy a simple two-bedroom apartment?
1 Wenzhou177275318130313 9278 649460 21.43
2 Shanghai16683 50049 28528 8627 603890 21.17
3 Hangzhou14565 43695 249067210 504700 20.26
4 Nanjing11602 3480619839 4960 34720017.50
5 Qingdao11089 3326718962 4639 32473017.5438+03.
6 Tianjin11467 3440119609 4760 3320016.99.
7 Dalian10378 3113417746 424129687016.73.
8 Beijing15638 46914 267416232 43640 6438+06.338+0.
9 Ningbo15882 47646 27158 5900 41300015.438+0
10 Xiamen14443 43329 5698 5156 36092014.4338+0
1 1 Xi 'an 8544 2563214610 3007 21049014.4438+0.
12 Nanning 806024180137832817195438+0901438.
13 Kunming 904527135154673150 22050014.26
14 Guiyang 8989 2696715371310021700014.12.
15 Guangzhou16884 50652 28872 5660 39620013.72
16 Taiyuan 9353 2805915994 3050 21350013.35
17 Nanchang 8690 2607014860 277719439013.08
18 Shenyang 8880 2664015185 2926 20482013.49
19 Lanzhou 7684 2305213140 243817066012.99
20 Suzhou1445143353 2471kloc-0/4460 31220012.63.
2 1 Wuhan 9564 2869216354 2858 20006012.23
22 Chongqing 92212766315768 273219124012 438+03.
23 Fuzhou11436 3430819556 3368 23576012.06
24 Harbin 8940 2682015287 25741801801.79
25 Shijiazhuang 8622 2586614744 247017290011.73
26 Zhengzhou 9364 2809216012 26501855001.58.
27 Chengdu103943118217774 2868 2007601.30
28 Jinan1200536015 20529 3172 2204010.82
29 Haikou 89812694315358 2330163100/0.62
30 Hefei 8610 2583014723 222015540010.55
3 1 Changsha110213306318846 282519775010.49
Changchun 89002670015219219115337010.08.
33 Yinchuan 7984 23952136531930135100 9.90
34 Xining 7626 22878130401821kloc-0/27470 9.77
Urumqi 972929187166372280159600 9.59
36 Shenzhen 27596 82788 47189 6037 422590 8.96
37 Hohhot10/66 30498173841960137200 7.89
37 urban average11357.11380213.38.
Wenzhou-the first eye of the needle when the bubble burst
At present, a house of 150 square meters in Shengxing Building in Ma 'anchi, Wenzhou costs nearly 1 0.5 million yuan, but the monthly rent is only about 2,300 yuan, and the annual return on investment is only 1.84%, which is far lower than the average operating return of more than 8% recognized by the industrial and commercial circles, and also lower than that of banks1.
According to international practice, in a mature and rational market, the house price is generally 100-200 times of the monthly rent; Once this standard is exceeded, both will be adjusted accordingly. And the price of this house is 652 times the monthly rent!
Aside from the discount factor of funds, investors need more than 54 years to recover their investment, which is close to the validity period of real estate property rights of 70 years.
The savvy Wenzhou people finally realized the seriousness of the housing price bubble. Since June 65438+ 10, 2004, the real estate transaction volume in Wenzhou has been declining continuously. In February 2004, compared with June165438+1October, the transaction volume of new houses decreased by 53%, and that of second-hand houses also decreased by 32%. There are even real estate speculators exclaiming: these two months are basically not trading! This can't help but make people wonder: Will Wenzhou be the first needle in the bursting of China's real estate bubble?
According to our survey, in 37 big cities in China, the current rent-to-house ratio is generally 230-290 times, and there is basically no rent-to-house ratio below 200 times, while in hot cities such as Beijing, it is more than 300 times, Shanghai is about 360 times, Hangzhou is about 470 times, and Wenzhou is more than 500 times.
Nanjing -20% of real estate speculators leave.
Reports on the real estate bubbles in Shanghai and Hangzhou are overwhelming. Needless to say, they rank second and third in the "bubble list", which is not beyond everyone's expectation. As the fourth-ranked Nanjing, the real estate risk can not be ignored.
In February, 2005, the average selling price of commercial housing in Nanjing (8 districts in the south of the Yangtze River) reached 4960 yuan. In a survey in June 5438+ 10, 0% of the respondents thought that the housing prices in Nanjing were reasonable. At the end of 2004, the proportion of investment housing in Nanjing was 22.3%, and at the end of 2003 it was 27.6%, a decrease of 20 percentage points. It can be seen that about 20% of the real estate speculators' confidence was disintegrated by higher and higher housing prices, and they went away with stage fright.
In 2004, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Nanjing accounted for 60% of the total transaction volume of the property market, and it is expected to rise to 70% this year. However, since the second half of 2004, the transaction volume of Nanjing second-hand housing market has been shrinking, and the atmosphere of buyers holding money is increasing day by day.
For the housing price in Nanjing in 2005, Gao Bo, a professor at Nanjing University Business School who accurately predicted that the real housing price in Nanjing would rise by 15% in 2004, recently bluntly said: In 2005, the housing price in Nanjing will fluctuate slightly! Second-hand house prices will fall.
Qingdao-Real estate bubble catches up with Shanghai and Hangzhou.
Qingdao, which ranks fifth in the "bubble list", has had a real estate bubble since 1999, and it has been six years. Especially after Beijing's successful bid for the Olympic Games in July 200012008, Qingdao, as the only cooperative city of the 2008 Olympic Games, was stimulated by this great positive, and the city's housing prices rose sharply.
The housing price in Qingdao is basically at the same level as that in Guangzhou, but the wage income of the working class is about half of the average annual salary of Guangzhou employees; In Qingdao Shinan District, Laoshan District and other coastal areas, many real estate prices exceed the 1 10,000 yuan/square meter mark, which is comparable to Shanghai, but there is still a big gap with Shanghai in terms of development level. Some people blame the high housing prices in Qingdao on the speculation of outsiders. In fact, among all buyers in Qingdao, the proportion of foreigners only accounts for 1 1%.
Therefore, the real estate risk in Qingdao is much higher than that in Guangzhou, catching up with Shanghai and Hangzhou. In 2004, the number of commercial housing transactions in Qingdao four districts decreased by 22% compared with 2003; A decrease of 26% in the total transaction area is a red flag worthy of attention.
The rent-to-house ratio in Qingdao is about 340 times.
Who is "harmed" by buying a house in a different place?
Under normal circumstances, more than 90% of the properties in each city are sold to local citizens. However, with the rise of the concept of "foreign capital" and the emergence of real estate speculators everywhere.
Strike, the proportion has been greatly reduced in many cities.
List of housing price bubbles in 9 cities in Pearl River Delta
Ranked as a city in 2004, the per capita disposable income of a family (yuan), the annual income of a family of three (yuan), the annual savings (yuan), the house price per square meter (yuan), and the average total price of a simple two-bedroom apartment (70 square meters) (yuan). How many years does it take to buy a simple two-bedroom apartment?
1 Guangzhou16884 50652 28872 5660 39620013.72
2 Zhaoqing 92612778315836251917633013.
3 Jiangmen11694 3508219997 3054 21378010.69
4 Shenzhen 27596 82788 47189 6037 422590 8.96
5 Foshan1604548135 27437 3153 220710 8.04
6 Zhuhai18347 5504131373 3435 240450 7.66
7 Zhongshan15836 47508 27080 2911203770 7.52
8 Huizhou13823 41469 23637 2425169750 7.4438+08.
Dongguan 20526 6 1578 35099 3266 6+0
9 urban average 16668
3607 9.05
The per capita disposable income of families in Pearl River Delta 10 city is 26% higher than that in Yangtze River Delta 15 city, but the average house price is only 82% of the latter. No wonder some people say that the Pearl River Delta is the most rational place in the national property market.
There are several explanations for this phenomenon.
Some people say that the deepest lesson is not spoken or heard, but learned through experience. 1May, 1997, when the real estate bubble in Hong Kong was at its peak, the average house price per square meter reached about 654.38+10,000 yuan. After the Asian financial crisis, house prices fell all the way, which triggered a shock in the property market. When the house price fell to the lowest, it was only 30% of the highest. Many real estate speculators went bankrupt, and many wage earners who paid for the house became millions of "losers". Until today, eight years later, house prices have not recovered to the original level. The Pearl River Delta region is inextricably linked with Hong Kong, and many families in the two places have relatives and frequent contacts. At that time, the scene of the bursting of the real estate bubble in Hong Kong was like a living teaching material, which made the people in the Pearl River Delta region more wary of real estate investment and did not dare to repeat it.
Nevertheless, due to the rapid economic development in the Pearl River Delta region, the per capita disposable income has increased by about 65,438+00% every year. Therefore, real estate prices will naturally rise, and an annual increase of 8%-65,438+00% should be predictable.
Therefore, buying a house in the Pearl River Delta is a sound investment.
Bohai Rim 13 Urban Housing Price Bubble Ranking
Ranked as a city in 2004, the per capita disposable income of a family (yuan), the annual income of a family of three (yuan), the annual savings (yuan), the house price per square meter (yuan), and the average total price of a simple two-bedroom apartment (70 square meters) (yuan). How many years does it take to buy a simple two-bedroom apartment?
1 Qingdao11089 3326718962 4639 4730+07 438+03.
2 Tianjin11467 3440119609 4760 3320016.99
3 Dalian103783113417746424129687016.73.
4 Beijing15638 46914 267416232 43640 6438+06.338+0.
5 Shijiazhuang 8622 2586614744 247017290011.73
6 Qinhuangdao 8356 2506814289 2381166701.66
7 Baoding 7803 2340913343 21171481901.
8 Tangshan 8902 2670615222 237716639010.93.
Yantai10527 31581kloc-0/80012806196420 65438+
10 Jinan1200536015 20529 3172 2204010.82
1 1 Zibo 996029880170322180152600 8.96
12 weihai112 333619002 2360165200 8.69
13 Dongying12935 38805 2219 2351164570 7.44
13 urban average 10676 3237 12.26
In 2005, the hot spots of price increase around Bohai Sea were mainly concentrated in Shandong Peninsula. In 2004, the average price of commercial housing in Shandong Province was 2045.3 yuan /m2, up by 18.2% year-on-year, which was the highest level since 1998, and entered a rapid rising channel, among which Qingdao, Dongying, Rizhao and Linyi had the highest increases, reaching 15.2% and 65438+ respectively.
In 2004, the number of commercial housing in Baoding, Hebei doubled, but the house price still rose by 25%, which shows the strong demand and the formation of real estate speculation atmosphere. Like Jiangsu, the housing prices of most small and medium-sized cities in Shandong and some hot small and medium-sized cities in Hebei will maintain an overall upward trend in 2005.
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