Lack of demand is the main restricting factor of China's current economic growth, while the lack of consumer demand is the fundamental reason for the lack of domestic demand. The analysis shows that the current consumer market in China has the following factors that inhibit consumption:

1. The increasing pressure of laid-off and unemployment has affected residents' income expectations and consumer confidence.

At present, the main factors affecting residents' income expectation and consumer confidence are the excessive pressure of being laid off and unemployed. From 1996 to 2000, there were about 310 million laid-off workers in state-owned units, accounting for 27.9% of the total number of employees in state-owned units, and about15 million laid-off workers in collective units, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of employees in collective units. At present, a large number of enterprises are still in a state of suspension or semi-suspension, the number of bankrupt enterprises has also increased significantly, and the pressure of laid-off workers in enterprises has increased. At the same time, the ongoing reform of public institutions and local government institutions involves a wider range of laid-off workers. According to statistics, local government agencies currently have 5.48 million full-time employees, which is expected to be reduced by half. Together with informal employees, nearly 3 million people will soon need to find another way out. The reform of public institutions with more than 0/0 million employees nationwide will also divert a large number of personnel. These two laid-off workers will have a great impact on laid-off workers and unemployment, and the already severe employment situation will be worse, thus causing a wider range of income decline expectations and ultimately affecting the growth of consumption. Although the state adjusted the residents' income policy in 1999 and 200 1, which increased residents' income to a certain extent, it did not fundamentally change residents' income expectations, let alone change people's worries about unemployment, so residents' consumption confidence was not strong.

2. The expected increase of residents' future expenditure affects the growth of residents' spot consumption.

Since the late 1990s, a series of reform measures such as medical care, pension, unemployment insurance and education have been introduced one after another, and the original system has been broken, but the new system has not yet been established and improved. Therefore, the current medical care, pension, unemployment insurance and education systems have great pressure on residents' personal expenditures, which are basically rigid expenditures, and the uncertainty of expenditures is also great, which leads to the increase of residents' expectations for future expenditures. Therefore, most residents have to save passively and make early preparations for future emergencies. This is the reason why the growth of residents' savings is far greater than that of their income in recent years (see table 1). According to the survey results of residents' savings by relevant departments, 66.5% of them are used for children's education, medical care, old-age care and house purchase. Residents' passive savings directly lead to a huge diversion of purchasing power, thus weakening the immediate demand for consumer goods, seriously affecting the growth of residents' immediate consumption, leading to insufficient effective demand, and ultimately leading to weak economic growth.

3. The structural contradiction between commodity supply and demand is still outstanding.

From the perspective of consumption structure, China's consumer goods market has undergone new fundamental changes: residents' low-level consumption is almost saturated, while higher-level consumption has not yet reached. Since 1998, the prices of most commodities have been declining, especially the prices of industrial consumer goods. According to the investigation and analysis of the supply and demand of major commodities in the whole society by the domestic trade department, at present, the supply and demand of other commodities are basically balanced, and there are no commodities that are in short supply. Judging from the queuing situation of specific commodity varieties, the commodities with basically balanced supply and demand cover a wide range, which exist in many industries such as sugar and liquor grocery, knitted cotton fabrics, daily necessities and groceries, cooking machinery, grain and oil commodities, cotton and linen cocoons, agricultural films and so on; In recent years, there has been a problem of imbalance between production and sales in commodities with oversupply, including many commodities in the fields of household appliances, Wujinjiaodian commodities, fertilizers and pesticides, building and decoration materials, and many of them are low-level repeated production, which wastes resources. From the general trend, the basic contradictions and deep-seated problems that restrict the consumer market have not been completely solved, mainly because new big consumption hotspots have not yet formed. After more than 20 years of reform and opening up, urban and rural residents have gone through the popularization stage of mid-range durable consumer goods. At present, the income consumption of ordinary people is not enough to form a new leading consumption hotspot with high-end products as the content, such as cars and houses, which is far from being included in the mainstream consumption of most people, and the existing purchasing power of residents cannot form the driving force to promote the upgrading of leading consumer goods.

The continuous decline of the stock market is not conducive to the growth of consumption.

The decline of stock price leads to the shrinking of residents' wealth, which directly affects people's consumption. At the same time, the stock market depression directly affects people's confidence, leading to their lack of confidence in future economic development and reasonable income expectations, which in turn affects people's consumption growth. The results of the survey report show that at present, 48. 1 1% of residents have affected their consumption due to investment losses, 39.58% have not been affected for the time being, and 12.438+0% means that they will not be affected by investment in the future. The report also shows that investors who are directly related to daily consumption, such as house purchase and household appliances, account for 34. 16% of the total number of people surveyed, 34.06% are related to leisure, tourism, fitness and car purchase, and 3 1.88% are related to other aspects of consumption. At the same time, since 200 1, residents' savings deposits have increased substantially, among which the growth of time deposits accounts for a relatively large proportion, indicating that the stability of residents' savings deposits has been significantly enhanced, while the corresponding investment and consumption tendencies of residents have declined. Therefore, the depression of the stock market directly affects the investment opportunities and consumption tendencies of residents.

5. The economic benefits of enterprises have obviously decreased, and the income growth of employees is weak, which is not conducive to consumption growth.

Since 1997, the economic benefits of Chinese enterprises have generally shown a downward trend, which has led to the weak income growth of enterprise employees, which has affected residents' actual income and income expectations, and thus affected consumption growth. In 2000, the enterprise's benefit rose briefly, but decreased obviously after 200 1. In the first quarter of 2002, the economic benefits of enterprises in China continued to decline on the basis of the continuous decline last year, mainly as follows: (1) The overall benefits declined. From June 5438 to March this year, the comprehensive index of enterprise economic benefits was 1 12.7, which was 0.6 points lower than the same period of last year. (2) The profit growth rate has declined. From June 5438 to March, the profit of enterprises was 79.92 billion yuan, down 9. 1% compared with the same period of last year, the first decline since June 5438+0999. (3) The losses of enterprises have increased. Since the beginning of this year, the growth of loss of loss-making enterprises has further accelerated. From June to March, the loss of loss-making enterprises was 41400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of14.4%; (4) The growth rate of benefit indicators of various enterprises has declined, especially state-owned enterprises. The profits of state-owned and state-holding enterprises decreased by 30. 1% from June to March this year, and increased by 58.6% in the same period last year; The loss of state-owned enterprises has also changed from shrinking to expanding. From June to March this year, the loss of state-owned enterprises increased by 65,438+06.4%, while it decreased by 265,438+0.0% in the same period last year. It can be seen that the current decline in corporate profits is mainly caused by the decline in profits of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises, which shows that under the ever-changing external environment, the ability of state-owned enterprises to create profits on their own is still insufficient; (5) The growth rate of sales revenue of industrial enterprises dropped significantly, and the sales environment of enterprises was weak. From June 5438 to March 2002, the sales revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 10.7%, which was not only 5.3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, but also 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period of this year. In the same period of last year, the sales revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 14.5%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over the same period of that year. This pattern of different growth rates of production and sales shows that the sales situation of enterprises has deteriorated this year. The deterioration of the sales environment and the decline of the economic benefits of enterprises have led to insufficient start-up, suspension of production or even bankruptcy, slow wage growth, laid-off workers and even unemployment, which has a great adverse impact on residents' consumer confidence. Because the income growth of residents is uncertain, there is no relative stability, and even the stability of employment is weakening, so residents dare not spend in order to prevent future income reduction and possible unemployment.

6. The overall price level continues to run at a low level, and the deflationary pressure is relatively high, which is not conducive to consumption growth.

Since 1997, the overall price level in China has been hovering at a low level. Among them, the retail price is negative from 1998, the price index of agricultural means of production and the purchase price index of agricultural and sideline products are also negative from 1997, and the consumer price index is negative from 1998, and the overall trend is also downward. In the first four months of 2002, China's consumer price decreased by 0.7% compared with the same period of last year, and the retail price decreased by 65,438 0.7% compared with the same period of last year. The market price was still running at a low level. From the perspective of development, the changing trend of China's prices is not optimistic, and the pressure of deflation is increasing. Its main performance is the continuous decline in the prices of means of production, which will further lower the overall price level. In 200 1 year, the price of means of production in China showed an obvious unilateral downward trend, and the decline rate of means of production increased month by month. Its monthly year-on-year growth rate dropped from 5% of 200 1 to -6.3% of 65438+February, and the annual production material price of 200 1 dropped by 65438 compared with the previous year. 200 1 month-on-month price of means of production dropped from 1 to 12. Compared with the beginning of 200 1 year, the absolute level of production materials in 200 1 year decreased by 7.2%. In 2002, the prices of means of production dropped further. From June to April, 2002, the prices of means of production decreased by 6.3%, 5.4%, 4.7% and 4.4% respectively compared with the same period of last year, and the downward trend continued. The price of means of production is the leading indicator of the overall price level trend, and the continuous decline of the price of means of production indicates that the future price trend will still be in a depressed state. Too low price will affect the investment confidence and profit of enterprises, weaken the development potential of enterprises, and then affect economic growth. At the same time, the current international market prices continue to fall, which will put greater pressure on China's deflation. The sustained negative price growth in China since 1997 is closely related to the low price in the international market. After China's entry into WTO, with the reduction of tariffs and the expansion of import scale, the impact of foreign products on China's market will further increase, and international price tightening will have a negative impact on domestic price changes. The continuous decline in prices is not conducive to the consumption growth of residents. Because from the consumer psychology of residents, it is the habitual psychology of residents to buy up and not buy down. Because residents expect prices to fall further, they often delay consumption, which is not conducive to the growth of residents' consumption. In addition, statistically speaking, due to falling prices, nominal consumption growth is often lower than actual consumption growth, which is not conducive to the improvement of consumption growth to some extent.

7. At present, there is no big consumption hotspot in China, so it is difficult to drive the rapid growth of consumption.

After cultivation and development in recent years, China has formed some consumption highlights such as housing consumption, residents' automobile consumption, communication and electronic products consumption, holiday consumption and tourism consumption, which can promote the steady growth of consumption, but it has never formed a big consumption hotspot, so it cannot drive the rapid growth of consumption. Historically, the peak period of consumption growth in China has corresponding consumption hotspots. The consumption climax of 1984- 1988 is the appearance of consumption hotspots marked by ordinary color TVs, refrigerators and washing machines, accompanied by the investment boom of household appliances and the rapid growth of residents' income; 1993- 1996 is the emergence of consumption hotspots marked by high-end household appliances such as large-screen color TVs, high-end refrigerators and multifunctional washing machines, accompanied by the investment boom in real estate and development zones and the rapid growth of residents' income. At present, China is cultivating automobile and housing consumption, but it has not yet formed a consumption hotspot, nor has it generated an investment fever, nor has it experienced a rapid increase in residents' income, so it is difficult to stimulate the rapid growth of consumption.

8. The slow growth of rural residents' income leads to the weak growth of rural residents' consumption.

Since 1990, the growth rate of per capita net income of rural residents has obviously slowed down, which has seriously affected the growth of rural residents' consumption. 1990-2001:1990-2001,and the per capita net income of rural residents increased annually 12.6438+0%. From 1990 to 1996, the per capita net income of rural residents increased at an average annual rate of 19. 1%, but from 1997 to 200 1, the average annual increase was only 3. 1%. The growth rate in 2000 was 1.9%, which was the slowest since the reform and opening up. In 2006, 5438+0, the growth rate of rural residents' net income rebounded slightly, which was 12. 1% higher than that of the previous year, but it was still at a low level on the whole.

The income growth rate of rural residents has dropped sharply, which has affected the growth of rural residents' living consumption expenditure. Since income is the main influencing factor of consumption expenditure, the slowdown of rural residents' income growth has obviously affected the growth of rural residents' consumption expenditure. In 1990- 1996, the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents increased by 17.9% annually, while in 1997-2002, due to stagnant income, the consumption expenditure only increased by 1.5% annually, of which1.5%.

The slow growth of rural residents' income has affected the growth of rural final consumption, resulting in weak social final consumption demand and affecting the rapid and healthy growth of the national economy. From 1990- 1996, the total final consumption of rural residents increased rapidly at an average annual rate of 2 1.4%, while from 1997-2000, due to the stagnation of rural residents' income, the growth rate of total final consumption of rural residents dropped sharply to 4.3%, which was lower than the GDP of 7.3% in the same period. 1997-2000, because the growth rate of rural residents' consumption slowed down (compared with the growth rate of GDP), the average annual growth rate of GDP decreased by about 2 percentage points. Length ratio (%)

9. The social income gap widens, and the marginal consumption tendency of income growth decreases.

Since the reform, the unfair income distribution caused by the disorder of income distribution has made some people who use power to get rich gather considerable wealth. Although these people have a lot of money in their hands, they are not real enterprises, so they will not invest it. Because of the convenience of their position, they spend a lot of public money. Eating, drinking, and having fun almost don't need their personal expenses, and even the consumption of family and friends can be spent with public funds. However, their personal income and all kinds of illegal income are mostly separated from the reproduction process, precipitated into long-term savings and even transferred abroad, which cannot form effective domestic consumption demand.

10. The social security system is not perfect and the security function is low, which affects the growth of residents' consumption.

Due to the imperfect social security system and low security function, residents' consumption has been greatly affected, which is an important reason for the lack of effective demand in the current society. At present, there are three psychological obstacles in residents' consumption: first, the continuous decline in the growth rate of residents' income (the absolute income of some residents declines) and the huge unemployment pressure lead to the decline of residents' expected income in the future; Second, the reform of medical care, old-age care, housing and education system goes hand in hand, and there is no corresponding publicity and explanation and supporting measures, which makes residents' expected expenditure rise in the future; Third, residents have strong uncertainty and insecurity about future revenue and expenditure. These three psychological obstacles seriously affect residents' immediate consumption expenditure, thus making the growth of effective social demand weak. Therefore, in order to turn China's huge potential consumer market into real demand, we must first solve the psychological obstacles of residents, the key is to speed up the establishment and improvement of the social security system, and the key point is to solve the problem that the basic living security and pension, medical care and unemployment security funds are not in place, and strive to expand the coverage of the social security system and improve the security function. According to statistics, there are currently150,000 urban poor people in China. By the end of February, 2002, the number of people receiving the minimum living allowance in China had reached more than130,000, and the new recipients of the minimum living allowance were mainly poor workers and their family members who met the minimum living allowance requirements. According to statistics, from 200 1 to 2002 1, the expenditure on minimum living security at all levels exceeded 5.2 billion yuan, an increase of 76% over the previous year. According to this calculation, the average national minimum living allowance recipients receive 400 yuan every year, which is equivalent to 70 yuan per person per month. Such a low cost of living is far from meeting people's basic living needs, let alone expanding consumption. Therefore, the social security function is incomplete and the coverage of social security function is not wide, which is the biggest hidden worry of residents in consumption at present and the main obstacle to the rapid growth of consumption.

References:

China money network