Let's analyze from three stakeholders: the government, developers and ordinary people:
First, the government 1, and most importantly, all real estate regulation that does not increase land supply is hooliganism.
I'm too lazy to check the data before 20 14, and just post a summary in the report of 20 14. "In the past five years, the land supply in Xiamen has been declining year by year, and the turnover of 20 14 is at the lowest level in five years. In the past two years, due to the difficulty of land consolidation, the supply of land market has shrunk, and the construction area of land transactions is far less than half of the transaction area of commercial housing. "
In 20 14, the planned commercial and residential building area is 4.46 million square meters, the actual commercial and residential building area is1372,900 square meters, and the sales of commercial housing is * * * 5,708,300 square meters;
In 20 15, the planned commercial and residential building area is 3 1 10000 square meters, the actual commercial and residential building area is 1736000 square meters, and the sales volume of commercial housing is * * * 35035438+00000 square meters;
In 20 16, the planned commercial and residential building area was 3.279 million square meters, but the actual commercial and residential building area was1655,000 square meters, and the sales volume of commercial housing was * * * 51100,000 square meters.
Data don't lie. The simple conclusions are as follows: first, the actual transfer area is much lower than the transfer plan at the beginning of the year (the average completion rate of the plan is only 45%), so don't listen to what the government says. The key depends on what the government does; Second, the sales area of commercial housing far exceeds that of the previous year, artificially creating the hunger effect of "demand exceeds supply".
2. Playing hooligans also needs capital. For local governments, the most basic requirements for land management and control are low financial debt ratio and low expenditure pressure. Looking up the credit rating report of special bonds of Xiamen municipal government, it is found that the debt/fiscal revenue of Xiamen municipal government in 20 15 years is 29. 1 1%, and the debt ratio should be the lowest in Fujian province, and it is also low in the whole country. In addition, Xiamen has not involved in large-scale infrastructure projects in recent years (except the track, the 1 line didn't start until 20 14 years), and there are few railways and expressways, so the expenditure pressure in this area is not great. Moreover, Xiamen's financial resources and land resources are relatively concentrated at the municipal level. Under the overall management mode of Xiamen, the pace of land transfer is easy to control, and the government's ability to cover land is super strong. On the other hand, Quanzhou, Chengdu and other places, due to the high government debt ratio, under the pressure of debt repayment and expenditure, even if land prices fall, they must maintain a high supply. However, local conquests all over the country are well studied now, and it is actually one of the simplest theories in economics to control the rhythm of land circulation very tacitly10/. The pricing with the highest profit under monopoly is higher than that when supply and demand are balanced.
3. Policy combination of house price protection. If you have experienced several regulatory cycles of Xiamen's housing market, you can feel a simple policy cycle: house prices are falling (or not rising)-land transfer is reduced-plus possible tax and loan policies are relaxed-house prices are rising-the policy of restricting purchases and loans is introduced-and the position is high and sideways (waiting for inflation to digest). Of course, it is not only in Xiamen, but also in many cities. The so-called "prevention of housing price ups and downs" has only experienced ups and downs in recent years.
Second, the courage of developers 1 and Fujian enterprises to increase leverage is unmatched in other regions. Stimulated by N trillion yuan after 2009, the rapid development of crazy leverage has become a successful experience. In 20 16, when the housing prices of hot cities in China skyrocketed, the bidding of Fujian enterprises in Xiamen and Fuzhou was simply terrible, and the Guankou Ginger Duck was abruptly made into a new land king. However, it is hard to say that leverage is a double-edged sword in the future. If nothing else, most of the enterprises that closed down in Shanghai Steel Trade a few years ago were from Fujian.
2. The local state-owned enterprises have strong purchasing power. The strength of state-owned enterprises in Xiamen is also the highest in the province, such as Jianfa, Guomao, housing enterprises and Haitou, which are actually related to the characteristics of Xiamen's big finance. Take Jianfa listed shares as an example. There are two main businesses, supply chain and real estate. The former accounted for 82.29% of the operating income and the gross profit margin was only 3.69%. The latter's operating income accounts for 17.64%, but its gross profit margin is as high as 36.57%. In layman's terms, it is relying on trade to support the scene and relying on real estate to make profits. Not to mention Haitou, whose main business is real estate, earned a lot of money by the development of Haicang District. A few years ago, Xiamen real estate market was dominated by local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and national developers entered relatively late. It is precisely because of the strength and extensive participation of local state-owned enterprises that they can often take over the real estate market in the cold winter to stabilize market confidence.
Third, people 1, Fujian people's preference for Xiamen. In fact, it can also be said that it is helpless. Fujian is a multi-core city, without a core, it can only be a dwarf. Let's talk specifically about the characteristics of Fuquan. Although Fuzhou has a large jurisdiction and good medical care, the climate is hot and cold (actually, I think it's fine), and the urban construction is average (the urban construction has made great progress in recent years). Although Quanzhou has low housing prices and a large economic aggregate, its folk customs are fierce (driving fiercely) and white-collar jobs are few (related to the economic structure). Therefore, Xiamen is the best and only choice for Fujian Province in terms of employment opportunities, government service efficiency, climate and tolerance for foreigners. It is no exaggeration to say that some prominent people in Fujian province (neutral words) have no houses in Xiamen? According to statistics, 70% of Xiamen real estate sales are foreigners. Therefore, the housing market pricing in Xiamen is not determined by the local working class, but guided by the rich in the province and even the whole country.
2. Islander (neutral word) thinking. In fact, it is not the fault of ordinary people. The government has left the best enterprises, landscapes, hospitals, schools and other resources on the island, so it has the concept of making the island's housing prices the most valuable. Coupled with the traffic on and off the island during the peak period, even if there is only a bridge between the island and the outside world, there is naturally a premium. The government and developers can skillfully use the island and the island to separate the two markets and echo each other.
3. The best value-added products. In addition to the short-term decline during the financial crisis in 2008 (the PX incident before), Xiamen's housing market is particularly strong, which is the most stable place to maintain and increase value in Fujian Province. Therefore, as a citizen or entrepreneur, once there is surplus liquidity, Xiamen house will become the best investment product. Fujian province is different from many provinces and cities in China, and it is dominated by private economy. That is to say, even though GDP and other data are not as good as those in Shandong and other provinces, the wealth accumulated by ordinary people is actually more. As far as my neighborhood is concerned, many business friends have multiple properties in Xiamen.
Last words: As a Fujian native, I have traveled to all cities, and I am also attracted by and proud of the diverse culture, food, scenery, history and architecture of Bamin. But in fact, I am deeply worried about the long-term possible adverse effects of the real estate market in Xiamen and even Fujian. In the future urban competition, the introduction of high-quality population and industrial upgrading are crucial, while high housing prices will only expel young people, increase industrial costs and distort the investment direction of enterprises. Xiamen is not deep in the north, why can it afford such a high house price? A leader once commented on Xiamen, saying that Xiamen is a city suitable for providing for the aged. Now that I think about it, I feel deeply convinced. If the family is not a well-off young man, I personally suggest going to the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. From the perspective of career development and livability, why die in Xiamen?