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What is the development prospect of short video?
Major listed companies in short video industry: Aauto is faster (0 1024. HK), Tencent (00700. HK), Baidu (09888. Hong Kong), BiLi BiLi (09626. HK) and so on.

The core data of this paper: the user scale of short video industry; Market size of short video industry; Number of MCN institutions; Short video advertising revenue

General situation of industry

1, clarity: short video

Short video, referred to as short video for short, is a way of Internet content dissemination, which is generally a video spread in new Internet media within 5 minutes. Short video content combines skills sharing, humor, fashion trends, social hotspots, street interviews, public welfare education, advertising creativity, commercial customization and other themes. Because the content is short, it can be a single film or a series of columns.

Short video products can be divided into comprehensive short video, aggregate short video and tool short video. Comprehensive short video generally refers to short video platforms with social attributes, video shooting, shopping and other functions. Representative products are Tik Tok and Aote Express. Aggregating short videos focuses on short video platforms in specific fields, such as pear videos and watermelon videos. Tool short video refers to short video platforms with video editing function as the main function, such as FaceU and Meng Jian.

2. Industrial chain analysis: the industrial chain is clear.

The industrial chain of China short video industry mainly includes upstream content producers, midstream content distributors and downstream user terminals. Upstream content producers are mainly divided into three categories: UGC (user-produced content), PGC (professional production content) and PUGC (network celebrity/star production content); Midstream content distributors include short video platforms, social platforms, news information platforms, e-commerce platforms, vertical platforms, live broadcast platforms and traditional video platforms. In addition, participants in the industrial chain also include basic supporters (such as server providers, telecom operators, technology operators, etc.). ), advertisers and regulatory authorities.

At present, the producers of the upstream content of short videos mainly include Bona Film, Noon Sunshine, Wuyuan Culture, Dayu Network, New Studio, Ivy Culture and Weilong Culture. There are many participants in the distribution of short video content. Mobile short video apps include Tik Tok, Aauto Faster, Tencent Microvision, Watermelon Video, Good-looking Video, Pear Video, WeChat Video Number, Central Video and other content distribution platforms, mainly including social applications such as WeChat, QQ, Sina Weibo and Xiaohongshu, and information platforms such as Zhihu and Today Headlines. In addition, traditional video platforms also cover short video content distribution, such as Tencent Video, Youku Video and Bi Li Bi Li. The basic supporters of short video mainly include Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, Huawei Cloud, Baidu AI Cloud, China Unicom, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Radio and Television.

Industry development process: the "two strong" pattern was formed, and the industry entered a stable period.

The short video industry sprouted in 20 1 1, as well as Aauto, micro-vision, beauty shooting and so on. Are early participants. Later, driven by the development of smart phones, mobile Internet and 4G technology, the industry developed rapidly. Tik Tok was born on 20 16. The powerful algorithm recommendation mechanism accurately provides users with a large number of high-quality short video content, and the scale of advertising realization is growing rapidly. In recent years, the short video industry has formed a competitive pattern of Tik Tok and fast "two strong". Due to the deepening trend of video content, social platforms such as WeChat, Weibo and Xiaohongshu have also added short video functions, further enhancing the penetration rate of short videos.

Industry policy background: focus on industry chaos and strengthen industry supervision.

Under the background of the gradual growth of short video users in China, due to the low entry threshold and the lack of self-censorship mechanism for short videos, problems such as the existence of a large number of vulgar content, the proliferation of false content and content plagiarism are gradually exposed. To this end, China has strengthened the supervision of the short video industry.

In recent years, various government departments have issued a series of policies and regulations to promote the healthy and orderly development of domestic short video industry and other related video industries. Relevant policies and regulations and their main contents are shown in the following table:

Upstream content producers: three types of content producers (UGC, PGC and PUGC).

At present, short video industry content producers include UGC (user-produced content), PGC (professional production content) and PUGC (network celebrity/star production content).

UGC producers are non-professional ordinary users. Such groups have low cost, simple production, basically no threshold and strong social attributes. The content production of UGC producers focuses on expressing individuality, and the general production time is below 15 seconds. The representative platforms are Tik Tok, A auto Fast-moving and Mei Pai.

PGC producers are professional organizations. Compared with the other two producers, PGC producers have higher production costs, higher professional and technical requirements and stronger media attributes. They make short videos of 2-5 minutes, and generally attract users' attention and interaction through massive high-quality content. These people are generally active in short video platforms such as watermelon video, pear video and good-looking video.

PUGC producer refers to KOL who has a fan base or professional knowledge in a certain field. These producers are low-cost, mainly profitable by traffic, and have both social and media attributes. Generally, this kind of content producers make videos for about 1 minute, mainly focusing on stories. Aauto Quicker, Tik Tok and Tik Tok Volcano Edition are the first choice for short video production platforms for this group of people.

Downstream pan-content platforms: numerous and diverse.

Up to now, China has formed various types of pan-content platforms, including social platforms, information platforms, e-commerce platforms, traditional video platforms, live broadcast platforms and vertical platforms. Social platforms include Weibo and WeChat. Representative information platforms include Headline, Netease, Tencent News, etc. E-commerce platforms include Taobao, JD.COM and Xiaohongshu; Traditional video platforms include iQiyi, Tencent Video and Youku.

Current situation of industry development

1. User scale: the scale grows steadily and the user stickiness increases.

Short videos are long, concentrated and expressive, which fits the fragmented viewing habits and penetrates into the daily life of the public. At the same time, short videos meet the needs of personalized and video-based expression and sharing, and more and more users shoot/upload short videos.

According to the latest data released by CNNIC, the number of short video users in China keeps increasing from 20 18 to 202 1. In the first quarter of 2020, the popularity of "home" made the scale of short video users grow strongly. In the first quarter of 2020, the number of short video users increased by 19.29% compared with 20 19 years. In 2020, the number of short video users in China has reached 873 million. By the end of February 20021and 65438+,the number of short video users in China had reached 934 million, an increase of 60.8 million compared with the same period in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 6.99%.

The usage rate of short video users continues to increase. After 20 19, the user usage rate of short videos has greatly increased and remained above 85%. In 20021year, the usage rate of short video users in China increased to 90.5%.

Note: Usage rate = short video user scale/netizen user scale.

At the same time, users spend more time using short videos. According to the data of China Network Audiovisual Program Service Association, as of March, 20021year, the average daily usage time of short videos in China was 125 minutes, an increase of 5 minutes compared with the end of June, 2020, and the stickiness of short video users continued to increase. As of 2002165438+February, short video users accounted for 25.7% of the total duration, surpassing instant messaging, and became the longest domain in People's Daily Online, with a rapid growth momentum.

2. Market scale: the industry is booming and achieving ultra-high-speed growth.

With the increasing user scale and usage time, domestic short video platforms are also actively exploring more diversified and deeper commercial monetization models. The short video industry is booming, and the market scale is growing at an ultra-high speed. According to the data released by China Network Audiovisual Program Service Association, the market size of China short video industry will reach 29164 million yuan in 2026, up by 0.07% year-on-year.

3.MCN institutions: more than 34,000 202 1.

According to the data released by iiMedia, the MCN market in China has experienced explosive growth in recent years, with the number of MCN institutions in China reaching 34,000 in 20021year. With the development of webcasting industry becoming more and more mature, both anchor ability and traffic operation need professional management. MCN organization, whose main business is incubating network celebrity anchors, has gained development opportunities with the prosperity of the live broadcast industry, which belongs to the industry-related fields that broke out under the influence of online live broadcast.

4. Industry Going to Sea: In 20021year, Tik Tok became the most visited Internet site in the world.

Viva video developed by Hangzhou Qu Wei Technology Co., Ltd. and Lexiu video developed by Shanghai Zhuo Ying Information Technology Co., Ltd. as early as 20 14.

Show), from the video editing tools to attack overseas markets. At the end of 20 16, aautoquick began to try internationalization, and launched an overseas version of sunflower in aautoquick; 20 17 in may, ByteDance also started to go to sea and launched the international version of Tik Tok overseas.

Tok, and focus on Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea. 20 165438+20071October, 20 165438+20071October, ByteDance acquired the American short video sharing platform Musical.ly and cooperated with Tik.

Tok integration. In 20 18, ByteDance and Alibaba simultaneously launched Helo and VMate, social products in Indian native languages.

In April 2020, Aauto Quicker launched SnackVideo overseas, and in May 2020, Zynn launched it in the United States. In August of 20021,Aauto Quicker made a major adjustment in its overseas business: SnackVideo in the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia was merged into a product of Kwai, and its form and page design were almost the same as those of the domestic main station. Tik Tok announced that as of September, 20021year, the monthly active users of the global platform had reached 654.38+0 billion. According to the data of Cloudflare, Tik Tok was the most visited Internet site in the world in 20021year, which has surpassed Google.

5. Advertising revenue: The short video industry is the main source of income, and the growth rate has slowed down.

At present, the revenue of China short video industry mainly comes from advertising revenue, e-commerce commission, live broadcast sharing and games. Advertising revenue is divided into information flow advertising revenue, open-screen advertising revenue and self-service commercial open platform revenue. E-commerce commission income is divided into self-owned e-commerce and third-party platform commission sharing. Generally speaking, Tik Tok draws 2- 10%, and A automatically draws 5%. The general proportion of live broadcast is 30%-50%.

According to iResearch data, in 2020, the advertising revenue growth rate of China short video platform will drop to 67%, and the total scale will reach 65.438+0336 billion yuan. From the demand side, short video advertising is still the focus of major advertisers, and the content ecology continuously optimized by the platform continues to improve the overall user volume and user stickiness, which has become a fertile ground for advertisers' marketing growth. On the whole, the head platform continues to explore more commercialization possibilities, and gradually opens up live advertisements and search advertisements in the form of advertisements. According to preliminary accounting, the advertising market of China short video industry in 20021year exceeded180 billion yuan.

Industry competition pattern

1. Regional competition: MCN institutions are mostly located in first-tier/new first-tier cities, with Beijing being the largest.

Since 20 17, the MCN industry in China has experienced explosive growth. At present, there are seven major formats of MCN industry in China, with content production and operation as the basic core, and the other five formats-marketing format, e-commerce format, brokerage format, community/knowledge payment format and IP authorization format-seek differentiated development in combination to achieve extension.

In recent years, MCN institutions have blossomed everywhere in China. According to the data, in 20021year, MCN institutions in China were mostly located in first-tier/new first-tier cities. Among them, Beijing accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for 22.3%, followed by Guangdong and Shanghai, accounting for 19.0% and 10.5% respectively. On the whole, except that Beijing has the characteristics of the capital, MCN enterprises are mostly distributed in the eastern coastal areas of China, and most of them are concentrated in economically developed provinces and cities.

Note: The above data comes from Crowley's survey on the living conditions of MCN institutions in 2022. The investigation period is 2022 1-3 months, and the total sample size is N=600.

2. Enterprise competition: the competition pattern is stable and the platform factions are in full bloom.

As the mainstream Internet application, the short video industry has a relatively stable market competition pattern. Vibrato short video, Aauto faster short video industry ranked first; ByteDance's watermelon video, Tik Tok volcano version, Baidu's good-looking video and Tencent's microvision are in the second echelon; Short video apps such as iQiyi Suike, Aauto Faster Edition, Bobo Video, and Meipai are in the third echelon. From the perspective of dynamic development, the user usage of the second echelon has improved significantly.

At present, the competition factions in China's short video industry mainly include Today's Headline Department, Tencent Department, Aauto Fast Consumer Department, Baidu Department, Sina Department, Ali Department, Meitu Department, Billie Billie Department, 360 Department, Netease Department, and short video platform factions are in full bloom. Among them, Tik Tok, one of the hottest video platforms at present, belongs to today's headline system; Aauto Quicker's short video belongs to Aauto Quicker.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

1. Development prospect: In 2027, the market size of short video industry will be close to one trillion yuan.

In the future, the short video platform will further seek new breakthroughs, such as joining live broadcast, e-commerce and other services. At present, the head short video platform has been developing online live broadcast service, seeking to deepen the relationship with other content creators and developing new functions to deepen the interaction between creators and users. The improvement of 5G penetration rate and the development of artificial intelligence and big data technology will provide new support for short video platforms. In addition, the state strengthens the supervision of the industry, and the platform also strengthens the review of short video content released by users. On the whole, the short video industry has great development potential.

Foresight forecast, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the development potential of short video will be further tapped, and the market scale of short video industry will grow at a faster speed in 20021-2023, with a compound annual growth rate of about 35%; The growth rate of market scale will slow down from 2024 to 2027, but it will still maintain the growth rate of 16%. In 2027, the market size of short video industry is expected to reach 962.4 billion yuan.

2. Development trend: Short videos, social activities and life will be further integrated in the future.

Short video can link multiple scenes, undertake more resources, make the ecological environment clearer, cross-infiltrate with many fields, and gradually evolve into an Internet lifestyle. 202 1, the short video industry began to enter local life, paid short plays, graphic and grass planting and other fields. In the future, short videos, socialization and life will be further integrated. At the same time, short video platforms are also actively exploring commercialization, and combining e-commerce development is the most important direction. After the rise of live e-commerce, short video platform+live e-commerce has become a hot spot in the market. The development prospect of short video industry has been continuously optimistic, and it has become a heavyweight product that occupies the user's use time under the video carrier. Pinduoduo, Tencent, etc. continue to increase short video tracks, and there is still the possibility of shuffling the short video market in the future.

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Short Video Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.