This year, the automobile market has been going south (hard), from automobile manufacturers to parts suppliers and distributors, and even the high-spirited new energy automobile enterprises and power battery enterprises in previous years, there are many crises and thunder bursts.
There is a famous saying: 20 19 is the worst year in the past decade, but it is the best year in the next decade. There is no conclusive evidence for this statement. Although it is not credible, it is certain that even if the whole drama of 20 19 ends, the days of suffering will not end there.
What is important to us is how to live in 2020.
People floating in the Jianghu, who can avoid being stabbed, but smart people can learn to grow up in pain.
Actually, 20 19 is very grateful. Thanks to all kinds of dramatic accidents, it has exercised our bones and minds, and even taught us seven truths that thousands of dollars can't be exchanged. There is still a long way to go before learning to face the future.
First of all, thank you for teaching us to understand:
Winter is far from over, and shuffling continues.
Keywords: negative growth, production suspension, restructuring, delisting
The production and sales data of China automobile industry in 65438+ 10/3 and 20 19 were released, and the annual new car sales decreased by 8.2% year-on-year. Not only did the market scale not exceed 30 million ceilings, but it also returned from 28 million to 25 million.
Such bleak data obviously makes people feel heavy, and not many people can predict it.
In 20 17, the automobile market in China reached a record high of 28.879 million vehicles. If the growth rate of 3.04% can be maintained this year, the sales volume in 20 18 should be 29.757 million, and 30 million vehicles are almost within reach.
Just when everyone was expecting to "break 3", 20 18 suffered the first negative growth in 28 years, and the annual sales volume was fixed at 28,085,438+0,000 vehicles, which poured cold water on everyone. Even so, many people still think that this is only an exception, and 20 19 should be basically the same as 20 18, even if there is no ascending channel.
Even the authoritative organization such as China Automobile Association thinks so, giving a forecast figure of 2,865,438+10,000 vehicles in 20 19, but it was hit in the face.
If the decline of 20 19 is the same as that of 20 18 (2.8%), I believe many people will still be lucky in 2020 and think that the phased adjustment should basically be over, but the 8.2% decline makes us have to let go of our previous unrealistic illusions and recognize the cruel reality that the cold wave is far from leaving and will continue to ravage in 2020.
Accompanied by winter is shuffling.
20 19 auto market knockout kicked off. A large number of domestic independent brands, such as Youth Lotus, Lifan, Yinxiang, Sotheby's, Zotye, Huatai, Haima, Southeast, Na Zhijie, Landwind, Cheetah, etc., have either stopped production, reorganized or fallen into business crisis, and are only one step away from bankruptcy. Even Changan PSA, a joint venture car company, was abandoned by Changan Automobile and PSA Group and sold itself.
In 2020, the reshuffle will continue, and those brands without technology and core competitiveness will be eliminated in 2020 even if they survive 20 19.
The more developed the automobile industry, the higher the industrial concentration. 20 19 among the world's top 500 automobile enterprises, there are 7 in China, 6 in Japan, 3 in Germany, 2 in the United States, 2 in Korea and 2 in France. Is it because the technology of China's automobile industry is better than that of other countries? Obviously not.
The biggest problem of China automobile industry is that it is big but not strong. No matter the brand, model or production capacity, there is a serious surplus. The process of big waves scouring sand will not only continue, but will also intensify in the future.
The second thanks teach us to understand:
The era of electric vehicles did not come as fast as expected.
Keywords: subsidies fall, sales decline
In all market segments, new energy vehicles are definitely the most unstable and unpredictable.
From June to June of 20 19, new energy vehicles maintained an upward trend, with the cumulative production and sales increasing by 94.9% and11.5% respectively compared with last year. However, since July, with the reduction of car subsidies and the switching of six models in the National Five-Year Plan, the sales of new energy vehicles have declined for six months.
Even if the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly in June 5438+February, the downward trend could not be pulled back. From/kloc-0 to 65438+February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed 1 .24 million and1.206 million respectively, down by 2.3% and 4.0% year-on-year.
At the beginning of last year, the sales target of new energy vehicles set by China Automobile Association was 6.5438+0.6 million. After the negative growth began in July, the China Automobile Association had to lower its target to 654.38+0.5 million vehicles. Even so, the final sales still only achieved 80% of the target, accounting for only 4.3% of the total car volume, while 20 18(4.44).
Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, has set the targets of 20 18 8% and 2020 10%. Based on the ratio of 20 19 of 4.3%, it is simply impossible to achieve the ratio of 10% in 2020. "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)" (draft for comment) puts forward that "the proportion will reach 25% in 2025", and what's more,
Since 20 15, China's new energy vehicle market, stimulated by the subsidy policy, has become the world's largest market, accounting for more than half of the global new energy vehicle sales for several years, which really makes many people get carried away, but the cold data of 20 19 tells us a fact: the era of electric vehicles has never come so fast as expected.
The cruising range, charging time, battery safety and the price higher than that of fuel vehicles are still important factors that hinder the large-scale popularization of new energy vehicles.
At present, the potential of ternary lithium batteries has almost been exhausted, and solid-state batteries with excellent performance are still in the initial stage of research and development. In the next three to five years, the performance of pure electric vehicles will not make a huge leap.
The legendary "end of the internal combustion engine era" will not come within ten years.
The third thanks, teach us to understand:
No matter how rich you are, you should be frugal.
Keywords: transformation, layoffs, factory closure, cost reduction
In many people's subconscious, car companies are rich, and no one expected that these companies would be collectively stretched.
In 20 19, the most unified action of multinational car companies is to lay off employees and reduce costs.
At the beginning of the year, BMW Group released a cost reduction plan, which will save 654.38+0.2 billion euros in the next three years, thus opening a wave of layoffs sweeping the world, including Daimler, Audi, Ford, General Motors, Nissan and other automobile giants.
According to incomplete statistics, since 20 19, the number of CEOs of global multinational automobile companies has reached 654.38+million, exceeding the number of layoffs during the financial crisis in 2008.
(Source: Future Auto Daily)
At the same time, closing factories, cutting production capacity and reducing production scale have become the main means for most car companies to reduce costs. Among them, GM's decision to close five factories in North America in order to save costs triggered a strike of nearly 50,000 workers in the United States, with losses as high as $4 billion.
American unions have long been notorious, and General Motors will close its factories to cut production capacity, even if there are risks. If it weren't for being forced, there would never be such a big determination.
What is the "culprit" for the giants to lose weight collectively? Electrification and digital transformation.
Electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology are two huge money-burning pits, which make you rich and quickly squeezed out.
Look at the electrification investment budgets announced by various car companies at present: Daimler/KOOC-0/0 billion euros, Audi 37 billion euros, GM 8 billion dollars, Hyundai 20 trillion won, Nissan/KOOC-0//KOOC-0/900 million dollars.
The key to the tens of billions of investment budget is that so much money is invested, which may not be heard. It will take at least a few years for electric vehicles and autonomous driving to achieve profitability.
According to the data, there are about 1 1 10,000 employees in the global automobile supply chain. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street investment bank, estimate that automobile electrification has greatly changed the labor demand and may lead to the loss of 3 million jobs in the automobile industry in the next 3-5 years.
At present, and in the future, layoffs and cost reduction will be the main theme of the automobile industry.
(To be continued)
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.