The key point is that in this transitional period, under the influence of the epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, the slowdown of the domestic economy has been greatly restricted, so that the speculation and remarks about restarting the "chamber pot" in the domestic real estate industry have begun to stand out. Does the steady economic growth really depend on real estate?
Two days before the May Day holiday, important conferences in many countries voiced their opposition to real estate, which triggered a heated discussion. In fact, a careful look at the description of the real estate sector at the national conference can understand that this is essentially a "both necessary and necessary" routine.
It is necessary for residents to leverage to buy houses to stimulate the local economy;
We must also keep house prices stable and not plummet and skyrocket;
We must continue to "de-finance real estate", that is, we don't want local governments to rely on "land finance" any more, but concentrate on reducing the debt leverage of local governments, housing enterprises and residents under the economic environment of China;
Generally speaking, residents should increase leverage when buying a house, and data indicators nationwide should reduce leverage.
Real estate itself is a capital-intensive debt-driven industry, and money is the flowing blood of the real estate industry. The importance of financial leverage to real estate is self-evident. In the past few decades, the real estate industry has also experienced the crisis of overcapacity, and the solution is usually to add more water.
But now, unlike in the past, the most serious problem now is not how much "water" there is, but that "noodles" are gone.
Even if the top floor wants to release water to real estate, the effect is not as good as in the past, so some people worry that, for example, if they are afraid of protecting real estate and cannot protect the exchange rate, real estate will be empty. Actually, it's not necessary at all. It is true to support the property market, but the stimulus effect is very limited. The most fundamental reason is that the fundamentals of the demand side have collapsed.
Don't say that more than 6.5438+million college students have flowed into society this year. If you just need a large population, ask, are employment and income guaranteed? It's hard to find a job, an enterprise dies easily, and the number of unemployed people is still increasing. How dare people take out a 30-year mortgage? There is no confidence in future income, and it is not easy to ensure food rations. What do buyers expect?
Therefore, it is an infinite loop to stimulate residents to increase leverage to restart real estate by releasing water at low interest rates. The highest level knows this better than anyone.
This is also the reason why the state said in the top-level heavy meeting that it is both necessary and necessary, because the core of domestic economic growth is no longer relying on real estate, and the state's attitude towards the real estate industry is not to hold on to it.
The core of domestic economy is to exert strength on the new engine of economic development.
So what exactly is this new engine?
Let me start with the current situation of China's domestic economic structure and the direction of future transformation.
Before the reform and opening up, China was a big agricultural country. 1978, about 69 million people are in the industrial field, 49 million people are in the service industry (supply and marketing cooperatives), and the rest are all in agriculture.
After the reform and opening up, due to the booming business of large industrial factories and the need for a lot of manpower, the country gradually liberalized the flow of farmers, and the tide of industrial siphoning of rural population officially began.
Then there are all kinds of factories to build production, infrastructure to transform cities, and land to build tall buildings.
Looking at the whole country, there are large construction sites everywhere. At that time, when farmers went to the city, they either worked as workers in factories or on construction sites. At that time, China built houses and factories, and there were no scientific and technological enterprises such as the Internet. There were plenty of OEM and brick-moving sites for various projects under construction.
At that time, China needed to earn money for infrastructure, and only with infrastructure could it increase investment attraction.
Capital needs to rely on the platform built by infrastructure for production, construction and circulation. Only with infrastructure can we attract foreign investment, earn foreign exchange, buy equipment and technology and continue industrialization.
But the stage of historical development is there. China was poor at that time, and we needed to make money. Combined with its own population advantages, China has positioned itself as a producing country. In the past, China's raw materials came from abroad, its capital and technology were abroad, and its consumption demand was also abroad. China is only responsible for processing.
To process, we need updated infrastructure (capital construction) and educated labor force (the quality of labor force needs to keep up). Only by meeting these two requirements can China have the genes of the world factory.
In other words, infrastructure construction is a platform for national industrialization development, and it must be moderately advanced to promote industrial development.
So at that time, China's key work was completely centered on construction and development. To put it bluntly, it is to attract investment while making money for infrastructure construction.
Externally, strive to earn foreign exchange through export.
Internally, heavy taxes are used to build infrastructure.
The foreign exchange earned by export is mainly spent on purchasing foreign raw materials and technical equipment. What about the money spent on domestic infrastructure construction? It is not enough to earn hard-earned money only by domestic labor. The only way out for the country is to borrow money from abroad and tap the domestic surplus value.
Issuing bonds means increasing the fiscal deficit and issuing special bonds, which is a matter at the national level.
Excavating surplus value internally is to accumulate original capital, which is different from the way many countries in Europe and America realize industrialization by plundering colonial wealth from abroad.
Our first step is to shear farmers' wool, that is, to buy agricultural products at a low price (below value) and sell industrial products at a high price (above value). The second step is to rely on heavy taxes to do projects, but heavy taxes will always affect attracting investment. Then, only after infrastructure construction, the domestic pillar industry tax, that is, the upstream and downstream industrial chain tax driven by the real estate industry, will gradually evolve into the "city tax" for farmers.
The main reason why China is an infrastructure fanatic is that it overdraws the future wealth of the whole country with the domestic real estate industry as the carrier, and drives all members to infrastructure projects. With the membership, the infrastructure has further begun to blow out, driving the domestic industrial economy to take off.
In the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, the real estate industry has played the role of printing money. A large amount of credit funds flow into the land market, into the local government budget, and then flow to the market step by step. Only then can the basic framework of national industrialization development be established.
In the past driven economic development model, such a closed loop centered on land and real estate has gradually formed.
The government relies on land finance+land mortgage financing to start infrastructure, feed back the real estate industry and drive the development of manufacturing industry.
The local government relies on "infrastructure" to enhance the value of Gong Ji, municipal greening and park water conservancy. , thus raising land prices and housing prices, and then developers financing development, the money flows to the government finance in the form of land transfer fees, and finally is used to repay local debts of "infrastructure".
This is the old model of real estate+infrastructure to promote local economic development. It can be said that large-scale infrastructure has been the core driving force for the development of China in the past few years.
This closed loop has its own bugs. In the continuous cycle of economic development, local government debt, corporate debt and household debt are constantly pushed up, and the national wealth is overdrawn in advance.
Because wealth is overdrawn, national consumption is severely suppressed and squeezed.
In the past few decades, we have "everything is in line with development", and most of the domestic GDP is driven by investment and construction, that is, infrastructure construction+house construction+investment and factory construction. A large part of residents' income went to the house, and some went to the circular economy (or invested in factories, etc.) ), so there is very little in hand for consumption.
In the end, the national economic development structure is unbalanced, the proportion of investment is too high and the proportion of consumption is too low.
This is quite different from the ratio of investment and consumption in the whole economy of some developed countries, which is about 3:7.
Therefore, the direction of our domestic economic transformation and upgrading, as well as the ultimate goal, is to increase the proportion of consumption in the economic development structure, which requires that the process of urbanization (life service) is greater than industrialization (investment and factory construction).
This requires the expansion of infrastructure that serves the quality of life, such as medical care, education, water conservancy, culture, sports, environmental protection and so on.
In the field of infrastructure in China, compared with other developed countries, these are indeed our shortcomings. In the past, we tended to invest in transportation, communication engineering and energy engineering. , can promote economic growth, but not enough attention to social service infrastructure.
However, this has created another contradiction, that is, the social infrastructure has low economic benefits and limited promotion to employment and industrial chain development. For example, if libraries and museums are built, airports will definitely not be built. High-speed rail and other facilities have high returns and contribute greatly to economic growth.
Without economic growth and income security, how can we increase residents' income and increase the proportion of consumption?
Of course, in recent years, China has been increasing residents' income by reducing taxes and fees. However, due to the overall tax mode of the country and the mode of big government, especially the mode of heavy taxation on projects, the space for increasing residents' income is limited and the way is single.
The income dilemma of residents has to be solved at the root, which we will talk about later.
The process of industrialization upgrading in China is still on the road. Compared with the world's industrial powers and the requirements of high-quality industrial development, we still have a long way to go. This is not what I said, but what I said in the domestic economic daily in March this year.
Especially in the manufacturing industry, although China Manufacturing has got rid of the label of "low quality" and "cheap" and abandoned the extensive production mode at the expense of environment and natural resources in the past, it is still far from the fields of science and technology, high-end, cultural symbols and innovation. Up to now, China's manufacturing industry still has a high degree of overlap with the low-end production capacity in Southeast Asia, but it has a low degree of overlap with the industrial sectors in developed economies such as Japan and South Korea.
In terms of categories, China has a complete range of manufacturing categories, but in terms of quality, we still have many shortcomings and weaknesses.
Just like the Economic Daily in "Where does the core competitiveness of manufacturing come from? "China's manufacturing industry can't build houses on other people's foundations, and the development and safety of the industrial economy must be in its own hands."
This sentence clearly points out that the core foundation of China's industry-the foundation of China's manufacturing industry has not been consolidated, and the core technology, long-term scale funds, key components, basic raw materials and energy are all dependent on overseas.
These all need money and capital. Even if we can buy these now, we will always "build our house on someone else's foundation." If we establish a big profit, others will take it away, and there is no security at all. When there is a trade conflict, people will fight with you and directly lift the foundation for you. Who can you argue with?
If you want to develop your own innovation, you need more money. In particular, from R&D to listing, it needs a certain amount of trial and error, and it also needs a lot of annihilation funds.
In the final analysis, where does the capital needed to promote the continuous upgrading of industrialization come from?
The real estate industry continues to pull? Let the old economic cycle model (land finance drives infrastructure to boost real estate and feed back finance) continue and continue to overdraw residents' debts?
Let's first look at the basic disk of the domestic demand side:
China's aging population has begun, the property market has overcapacity, the per capita living area exceeds 50%, the residents' debt exceeds 62%, the local government debt is high, and the domestic economy is unrealistic. ...
I can't play!
The old model of real estate as the engine of domestic economic development is definitely unsustainable, which means that the real estate industry needs to unload the burden of stimulating economic growth step by step and retire gloriously at the same time of soft landing.
The "printing machine" of the real estate industry has completed its historical mission.
However, the industrialization of China is far from complete, and the industrial structure needs to be upgraded.
The most direct proof is that China's infrastructure stock ranks first in the world, but there is still a clear gap between the per capita level and the quality of facilities in developed countries.
At the end of 20 18, the national railway mileage reached13170,000 kilometers, which was five times higher than 1949. The operating mileage of high-speed rail accounts for about two-thirds of the world's high-speed rail mileage, ranking first in the world for many years.
In addition, China Port has about 24,000 berths for production terminals. Among the top ten ports in global container throughput, China Port occupies seven seats.
West-to-East gas transmission, West-to-East electricity transmission, South-to-North water transfer and energy channel construction. Increasingly smooth, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and Yangshan Port have been built one after another, the traffic structure has been improved day by day, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and the Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway have been opened to traffic one after another, and the industrial parks around Beijing, science and technology innovation parks, logistics parks and cold chain construction have blossomed everywhere. ...
Some people say that the infrastructure in China can't be built in a year, because there is not much space.
Actually, this is a misunderstanding. Let's take a look at the comparison between China's infrastructure and that of developed countries.
According to the data in Global Competitiveness Report 20 19, the railway density in China is 137. 1 km/ 10,000 square kilometers, which is far lower than 246,749 in the United States, Japan, Britain, France and Germany, which should be 696, and Germany is as high as 957 (unit: km/).
In terms of urban rail transit, China ranks first in the world in terms of rail transit mileage, with per capita higher than that of the United States, but lower than that of Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and other countries. As for airports, there are only 235 public airports in China, accounting for 62% of the United States. In the field of science and technology, China's total R&D investment is12 of that of the United States, and its per capita scientific research quantity is far lower than that of the United States and Japan, and its scientific research infrastructure is scarce. In the field of education, the number and quality of colleges and universities in China are lower than those in the United States, and the gross enrollment rate of higher education is low, mainly because school construction needs to be strengthened. In the field of culture, the number of museums and public libraries in China is 18% and 35% respectively. In the field of sports, the per capita land for sports venues in China is less than 2, far lower than that in the United States (16) and Japan (19).
From the internal structure, the urban-rural gap and the regional gap are huge. For example, the urban water consumption rate is 99%, while the rural water consumption rate is only 84%.
In other words, large-scale infrastructure (transportation, water conservancy, urban infrastructure, rural infrastructure, etc. The main infrastructure is what we call the old infrastructure):
The total amount is enough, but the per capita is not enough.
There are enough cities, but not enough rural areas;
Enough quantity, but not enough quality.
The framework of economic development, the quality of the basic platform is not up to standard, how can the plays sung inside be upgraded and creative?
Therefore, the infrastructure still needs to be built and the quality still needs to be improved, but the source of funds still needs to be solved, and the real estate-land financial model is unsustainable. The key to the next stage is to solve the problem of funding sources.
Some people say that local governments and residents have no money and have taxes.
The real estate industry is still shrinking its assets and liabilities, that is, real estate is slimming down. All the business sectors that can be sold are sold, and the debt will be paid back soon after the sale. In the past, housing enterprises relied on debt financing, and their debts were broken. There is only a little principal left. Where is the money to develop and build land with high turnover?
Without the circulation of the real estate industry, the upstream and downstream economic chains involved will slow down, the economic prosperity will fade, and the foundation of land finance and heavy taxes will disappear.
In other words, the national tax base will also be greatly reduced.
Expect small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing and service industries to collect taxes? The epidemic situation, the Fed's interest rate hike and the commodity shock caused by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis have determined that the tax revenue in the coming period will not be ideal.
Don't expect new tax reform. The change of tax mode will affect the whole body and directly involve everyone's vital interests. In the stage of economic pressure, the tax structure cannot be moved.
where is the money to come from?
Of course, it is fiscal expenditure and special bond issuance.
In addition to the above sources of funds, there are REITS, revitalizing existing infrastructure, carbon emission reduction tools, stock registration system, pension system and so on.
Generally speaking, it is the country that increases the deficit and pays for it, as well as the intervention of long-term investment funds in the market.
There's something wrong here again. The country can make money in a short time, and there is a limit to increasing the deficit. There are also the so-called stock registration system and pension system, which only need to be promoted for a few years. Far water can't quench thirst, and we can only rely on monetary means such as carbon emission reduction tools. Isn't it entirely up to social enterprises to expand themselves and then improve the economic structure? This is not reliable either.
Still open source.
How to open source?
The platform built by the old infrastructure and the industrial chain bred have reached the point of upgrading. To open source, it is natural to build new shelves and breed new industrial chains.
As we all know, the prerequisite for a country to promote industrialization is that it needs to build a platform (infrastructure) first, plus various fiscal and taxation policies, financial policies and industrial policies, and then it will cultivate corresponding manufacturing or life service industries.
The new industrial chain has brought a new economic cycle model, provided employment and increased residents' income, but also provided a huge tax base for the country.
Now the old infrastructure is still on the road, and the demand for new infrastructure facilities has arrived, because China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and the industrial chain will enter the middle and high end of the world, which requires the country to quickly build a new singing platform to provide infrastructure for the breeding of new industries.
This is like age of steam in the18th century, entering the electrical age in the19th century, so the new power grid pipeline will replace the old steam pipeline. The 20th century will enter the information and Internet era, and network pipelines and urban renewal will be started ahead of schedule. Then the information technology revolution broke out, and after the dividend was eaten, it came to the era of artificial intelligence. It is still necessary to build a good infrastructure and build a good shelf to become the chip of the information intelligent society.
So, infrastructure is hopeless?
Again, the government sets up a stage, enterprises sing opera, and large-scale infrastructure construction is the core driving force for economic development! Real estate is just one of the key industries (including manufacturing and service industries) produced with urbanization (infrastructure) in the first stage of industrialization in China. ).
Referring to the past history, 1929 During the Great Depression, Roosevelt launched the famous "Roosevelt New Deal", in which the most important policy was the large-scale infrastructure construction led by the government, which not only increased employment and people's income, but also laid a solid foundation for the subsequent economic transformation and great development of the United States.
This is the same as the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the China government issued special treasury bonds to strengthen infrastructure, the 2008 global financial crisis, and China's 4 trillion plan, all of which were driven by large-scale infrastructure. Looking at the great reform and construction at that time, it not only greatly reduced the transportation cost, enhanced the global competitiveness of China manufacturing, but also released the great potential of China's economic growth.
It has become a fact that the first step in building a platform is state-led and issuing bonds. Since the beginning of 2022, 8,000 projects have been staged in more than 40 days, with an investment of 5 trillion yuan, mainly due to financial liabilities, and new infrastructure projects account for the vast majority.
The road is clear, right? We have come to a new era of infrastructure construction.
The first step is to borrow money to build new infrastructure, stimulate employment and ensure residents' income.
The second step is to point out that these infrastructures have bred new industries such as energy, digital technology and electronic information, and a new tax base, together with the subsequent tax reform, has formed a new economic cycle model.
Is open source ready?
So the highlight is betting on new infrastructure, and the breakthrough to solve our domestic economic difficulties is also on new infrastructure.
Old infrastructure needs to make up for shortcomings, but new infrastructure is the key to open source.
The old infrastructure, mainly "Iron Gong Ji", such as airports, railways and highways, is aimed at people flow and logistics, relying on traditional energy.
The old infrastructure-driven economic development model can be simply summarized as the "debt-driven-land sales expansion" development model with the real estate industry as the core. By promoting close exchanges between regions, we can accelerate the process of urbanization, accelerate the appreciation of land, and accelerate the accumulation of resources such as people, finance and materials, and then recover the debts of old local infrastructure by selling land and houses.
To put it bluntly, it is the cooperation between the old infrastructure and the real estate industry, and the wealth siphoned from the people is invested in urbanization. Most of the money created by the people has become reinforced concrete in the city.
Therefore, while stimulating economic growth, the old infrastructure model not only pushed up the debts of local governments, developers and residents, but also made residents bear heavy mortgages, which easily led to overcapacity, waste of resources and many "ghost towns".
The new infrastructure mainly refers to the construction of 5G, big data, cloud computing, UHV, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and smart cities. Without the demographic dividend and the real estate derived from the urbanization process as a printing machine, people and goods flow have also gathered. What the new infrastructure needs to do is to upgrade, which is manifested in the convergence of information flow and capital flow.
Compared with the flow of people, the urbanization of logistics agglomeration, the information flow of new infrastructure and the high-end financial industry, digital technology and new energy cultivated by capital flow agglomeration are the bright spots in the future.
For example, financial payment tools based on the Internet and Internet of Things are designed to facilitate the cross-regional flow of funds; For example, UHV, Western Digital Oriental Computing, etc. The western region of China is rich in coal, light energy, hydropower, wind energy, land and other resources, while the eastern region is short of land resources, which requires higher power and computer computing capacity. Building hardware facilities such as UHV, smart grid and data center in the west to meet the demand of energy and computing power in the east can not only promote employment in the west, but also promote the development of the east and protect the ecological environment.
Therefore, the economic cycle mode under the new infrastructure is the coordinated development of resources between regions, improving the efficiency of use, gestating new scientific and technological intelligent industries and driving economic growth.
Here, the path of future economic development is very clear.
Therefore, there is no economy that can't engage in infrastructure, but the development of the economy must first engage in infrastructure, especially when we are at a critical turning point in this economic structure. It is more important to add more money to new infrastructure than to fill the gap in old infrastructure.
However, in the process of transformation, the repeated epidemic and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis have forced us to stabilize the old infrastructure and real estate while vigorously engaging in new infrastructure. It is also necessary to promote the premium and smooth transition of real estate projects through the construction of old infrastructure.