Getting fat is easy, but losing weight is difficult!
After several months' delay, China Huarong will release its 2020 annual report on August 28th. Before 65,438+00, in August, 65,438+08, Huarong issued a profit warning for 2020: According to preliminary calculations, the Group's operating performance in 2020 is expected to suffer a loss, and the estimated net profit attributable to the mother is 65,438+0,029,003 yuan.
65.438+0029 billion loss, a new record for domestic listed companies! Huarong's market value is only HK$ 39.8 billion, and it has lost three. Huarong's net assets are 65.438+0204 billion, and almost all of its net assets are lost at once. The original debt ratio is as high as 90%, which makes the debt ratio directly out of the chart and close to 99%!
In the first half of 2020, Huarong's net profit returned to its mother was 200 million, and all the losses came from the second half of the year, mainly including credit impairment losses and changes in fair value.
1, Waterloo for private women!
Thanks to deleveraging and financial disintermediation, Huarong ushered in a wave of crazy development, which was also the time when shadow banking made rapid progress and trust managers were intoxicated!
20 17 is the highlight moment of Huarong! In 20 17, Huarong's net profit returned to its mother was 22 billion, and its total assets were 1.87 trillion, both hitting record highs!
At that time, many big V's in the stock market were eager for Huarong, holding the principal or the funds raised by fans in succession and holding Huarong in a heavy position!
Among them, a woman who traded stocks resigned from Beijing and went to a small city on the 18th line to start professional stock trading, euphemistically called "starting a business". At that time, she not only held a heavy position in Huarong, but also continued to post and advocate Huarong, euphemistically called "value investment".
At that time, Huarong's various valuation indicators were really good, with a P/E ratio of only 5 times and a P/B ratio below 1. More importantly, Huarong's net profit continued to grow at a high speed, which made many value powders crazy and began to buy mindlessly! But these fake value powders don't understand Huarong's model and asset quality. As a financial diversified group with trillions of assets, it is easy to make profits as long as the cash flow remains unchanged. If some good assets are sold or revalued, non-performing assets will be measured at cost or not, and profits will come out!
The woman in this stock market, who has been in Huarong for two months, ushered in a thigh chop. Not only her principal, but also the fund she raised from fans suffered heavy losses, and the net value of the fund once fell to 0.4! Huarong has dropped from 3.79 at the beginning of 20 18 to 202 1 .02 at the beginning of 2018, with a drop of 80%. I wonder how much this private woman will lose further.
The operation is as fierce as a tiger. In the end, the stock market failed to start a business, so I had to flee to Beijing from a small city in the 18th line, return to my old job and make a living by stock evaluation!
2, Huarong's darkest moment!
At the beginning of 20 18, with the investigation of Lai Xiaoming, this huge ship with trillions of assets has already been riddled with holes, risks have gradually surfaced and profits have collapsed rapidly!
In 20 18, Huarong's net profit returned to its mother157.6 billion, down 92.84% year-on-year! In 20 19, the net profit returned to the mother was barely maintained at14.24 million!
Of course, the profits of 20 18 and 20 19 are also earned. Good assets are sold, poor assets are not sold, and losses are not reflected. Finally in the second half of 2020, these mines began to explode together!
At the end of June 2020, Huarong's total assets 1.73 trillion, total liabilities 1.56 trillion, and the debt ratio was 90.30%!
Borrowing 766 billion yuan, absorbing 262.9 billion yuan in deposits and 338.8 billion yuan in bonds and bills payable, these three liabilities are as high as 1.3677 trillion yuan!
How can I put it? Assets can shrink, but these liabilities are real and interest-bearing! Huarong's life is extremely difficult!
In the second half of 2020, the loss was10 billion, and Huarong's debt ratio approached 99%. What concept? The leverage of a financial enterprise is nearly 100 times!
At this time, Huarong urgently needed to replenish its capital, so it came out, with five strategic investors represented by CITIC Group.
3, Huarong trillion assets road: getting fat is easy to lose weight!
Boss Lai once proudly declared that he had turned a small enterprise dealing with non-performing assets into a financial giant with trillions of assets.
After the Asian financial crisis, 1999, the four major AMC companies were born to undertake the bad assets of the four major banks!
With the rapid development of China's economy, those non-performing assets can not only be repaid, but also some assets have become delicious cash cows. Huarong and other four AMCs have started to make money!
The original non-performing assets are not handled. With the rapid development of China's economy, Huarong and other four AMCs suddenly lay down to make money!
The four AMCs that originally expired in 10 should have completed their mission in 2009! However, Huarong expanded Zhang Zhilu against the trend, constantly packaging and absorbing non-performing assets until they became non-performing assets!
In 2009, Lai Xiaoming came to Huarong and started a wave of crazy expansion in Zhang Zhilu, which coincided with the leap-forward development of shadow banking, and the trust industry began to blow out at that time!
In 2009, Huarong's total assets were less than10 billion, which was the smallest among the four AMCs. In a blink of an eye, by 20 17, Huarong's assets increased by about 200 times, and its total assets reached 1.87 trillion, making it the largest of the four AMCs!
Huarong continues to expand, constantly packaging some bad assets, then mortgage financing, and then absorb a new round of bad assets!
Risk assets are risk assets after all, and the risk will not be reduced because of Huarong's participation. When the cash flow is not smooth, the risk begins to break out!
Still that simple sentence, you care about other people's interest, others care about your principal!
Why don't financial elites understand because of their bosses?
Boss Lai may think that by the way, collecting some benefits will help the company get high interest and a bigger scale!
Those professional employees may think, give you some benefits, promise high interest rates, and take the principal of your company!
The battle between boss Lai and professional Lao Lai can be described as a tragic defeat until he lost his life!