F = ( ( R + 1 ) * P - 1 ) / R
P = percentage of system profit accuracy.
R = the ratio of trading profit to trading loss.
If we use a system example with an accuracy rate of 65% and a winner-loser ratio of 1.3 times to calculate.
F = ((1.3+1) * 0.65-1)/1.3 = 38% of the funds used for trading.
In this example, you will use 38% of your own funds to support each transaction. If your account has 6.5438+0 million yuan, you can calculate the number of contracts by dividing 380,000 yuan by the deposit.
Blind spot of Kelly formula
Kelly's formula was originally designed to help plan the design of electronic bit stream, but it was later quoted to bet 2 1 point. The trouble lies in the simple fact that 2 1 point is not a commodity or a transaction. When you bet 2 1 point, the amount of money you may lose is limited to the chips you put in, and the profit you may win is limited to the range of betting chips. But the degree of winning or losing in commodity trading is not accurate, which will have a great impact on assets or winning or losing.
Improved fund management mode-to be continued ..
Excerpts from short-term trading tips
Change the direction and treat the biggest loss as an asset.
When we are constantly looking for ways to tame the beast of the market, our trading career is stumbling forward in the swing of speculation. However, through this search, we get some basic concepts, which can be used to calculate the number of contracts for the next sale.
One of the concepts is to divide our account balance by the margin plus the largest liquidation loss that this system has seen in the past, which is absolutely reasonable. The losses you may encounter in the future are not necessarily greater, but they are similar, so you'd better prepare enough money and deposits as support. In fact, I was really shocked when I found that a person needed margin plus 1.5 times the maximum liquidation loss to be safe.
Therefore, if the margin is 1, and the system's biggest liquidation loss in the past is 30,000 yuan, you need 1, 450 yuan to trade a contract (1, 000,000+30,000 *1.
* The way speculators make money comes from their money management methods, not some magical and mysterious system or alchemist's secret recipe. Successful trading will make money, and successful trading combined with proper fund management will create great wealth.
* Before you learn how to manage money, you are just a trivial little speculator. You win here and lose there, but you will never make big money. The profit ring of commodity futures trading is beyond your reach. You just wander between transactions and can only pick up a few dollars, but you can't accumulate wealth.
1. Kelly formula is the optimal fund management formula?
Some people say that Kelly formula is derived from information theory, and they have never studied information theory and don't understand it.
Some people say that the game of 2 1 uses Kelly formula, and I know something about 2 1. Tell me my opinion. Apart from Larry William's statement that Kelly formula can be used at 2 1, I have never seen such a statement, even if there is one, it is nothing, because since many experts at 2 1 have not mentioned this formula, its use is impossible to be necessary.
2 1 Also known as blackjack, Black Jack. Using two methods can improve the advantage of gamblers. The first is to use the basic strategy, and the second is to use the card counting method based on the basic strategy. The basic strategy is that playing cards does not count as cards that have been played, so it regards the winning rate of each game as constant, so the bet of each game should be the same, which can increase the winning rate to 49% (but it depends on the rules). The rule of counting cards is to estimate the cards that have not been played by counting the cards that have been played. It depends on the change of winning percentage in each game. Therefore, bet more when the winning percentage is higher (> 50%) and less when the winning percentage is lower (< 50%) (2 1 minute game requires you to bet). It can be seen that the winning rate of this system is not constant. It is precisely because of the change in bets that gamblers may have an advantage over casinos.