However, in sharp contrast to this brilliant performance list, the recent stock price trend of aquaculture enterprises represented by Muyuan shares did not excite investors.
After entering September, pork stocks, which continued to be strong in the previous period, suddenly stepped on the brakes, and the share prices of several leading stocks continued to fall, and some stocks fell by about 30% from their highs.
What happened?
Step on this foot? Brake? I'm afraid it's the practitioners themselves in the pig breeding industry. Previously, according to the calculation of pig raising projects under construction or proposed by major pig enterprises, the scale of new breeding in the future will reach 2 billion.
This huge expansion scale will undoubtedly greatly change the pork supply pattern. Some insiders predict that if all these new production capacities are transformed, the future pork price will fall below 10 yuan per catty, even to 4 yuan to 5 yuan per catty.
In fact, the recent decline in pork continues. June 4 10 The latest monitoring data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) decreased by 5.9% in the first ten days of June 438+00, and the current price was 3 1.7 yuan/kg.
Does the market really have such great strength and determination to expand production? Does the current adjustment of pork price mean that the opportunity to invest in pig industry has passed this round?
The reporter's investigation found that there are many suggestions in the industry, even many conflicting suggestions, on how long the pig cycle can last and whether large-scale farming will make the pig cycle tend to disappear.
Pig fighting cycle: has the pig price peaked?
Where is the current pig cycle? Are you still crawling slowly or have you passed the high point and started to turn your head downwards? People in the pork farming industry should have the most say.
After visiting his pig farm, Mei Feng (pseudonym) locked the iron gate of the pig farm with a heavy heart.
Previously, due to the influence of African swine fever, pig farms in Mei Feng suffered heavy losses. In 20 19, he was forced to temporarily close the pig farm that had been in operation for more than ten years.
However, as a professional pig farmer, Mei Feng has not been idle, but has been paying attention to the pig market. It is something he must do every day to communicate with people in pig farms and learn how to prevent African swine fever.
With the gradual control of the COVID-19 epidemic in China this year, the idea of trying to revive pig breeding in Mei Feng is getting stronger and stronger. He told, "Every noise? The reporter of Economic News has been eager to restart pig breeding in recent months. On the one hand, the price of pork remains high, and there is a high profit margin for raising pigs; On the one hand, after a period of research, some colleagues have gained some experience in controlling African swine fever, which has certain reference significance.
Recently, however, seeing the peak demand for pork coming at the end of the year, Mei Feng hesitated and even began to shrink back.
The reasons are nothing more than two points: first, a pig farm needs to invest a lot of money to do epidemic prevention reform; Secondly, more importantly, he is worried about the future price of pork.
Meifeng's worry stems from a word from people in the industry.
In late August of this year, Tao Yishan, chairman of Tang Renshen (SZ, 002567), a listed company engaged in the management of pig industry chain in Hunan, said in an interview with the media. The scale of pig-raising projects under construction or to be built by major domestic pig enterprises will reach 2 billion, and there will be overcapacity in the pig industry in the future. Previously, some large pig farmers in the circle predicted that the domestic meat price would drop to 10 yuan/kg by 2022 (Note: unless otherwise specified, the unit of meat price below is RMB/kg). I am pessimistic. When the price of meat fell to 5 yuan, 4 yuan, it was almost the same. ?
As soon as this remark came out, the already existing bearish sentiment on the pork market was intensified. Is the current pig cycle coming to an end? The voice is kind. Under the leadership of this sentiment, combined with the weakening of the previous market, many leading pork enterprises whose share prices have been leaping forward began to decline.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in August this year, the number of live pigs nationwide increased by 4.7% month-on-month, lasting for seven months, with a year-on-year increase of 3 1.3%. In August, the number of fertile sows increased by 3.5% month on month, and continued to increase by 1 1 month, with a year-on-year increase of 37.0%.
In this regard, reporter Xia Chenfeng, chief analyst of the national pig market, said that this round of pig cycle has indeed passed the price high point. Judging from the annual production capacity data this year, the number of fertile sows and pigs turned positive year-on-year, and increased from the fourth quarter of last year. The pig cycle is currently at the top, and the collective trend behind it should be downward.
Xia Chenfeng further explained that being able to breed sows is the basic productivity. When the number of fertile sows reaches the bottom and grows steadily, it can be predicted that the supply of pigs and pork will definitely increase in the future. After the stock of ordinary fertile sows increases in September 9~ 10/0, the stock of live pigs in the market will increase obviously.
Compared with breeding pigs, the stock of live pigs is closer to the pork supply end, and the increase in the stock of live pigs indicates that the supply of pork will go out of the trough. When these pigs can be put on the market in the future, the price will definitely drop. ? In the long run, this indicator can certainly prove that the pig cycle has fallen into a downward state. ? Xia Chenfeng said.
A pork market securities analyst who didn't want to be named told reporters:? The price of pigs is now at a high level and will gradually fall back in the future. Although the pig price is ok in the short term, in fact, the inflection point of the pig price has become more obvious, and some institutions in the industry have reduced their positions. ?
However, there are also some concerns in the industry. Feng Yonghui, an analyst of China Pig Warning Network, told reporters that the analysis in the industry now is mainly based on the indicators and signals of the beginning or end of the pig cycle in the past. Although such signals have begun to appear at present, we need to pay attention to the factors of African swine fever. If there is interference from the African swine fever epidemic, such a signal may not last forever, and the anti-gravity situation will not be eliminated.
Feng Yonghui believes that it is not completely certain that the pig cycle has turned down. Although there are signals in this regard from the existing data, it is uncertain whether pork prices will continue to fall for a long time to come.
Against the layout of capital: a detailed explanation of 2 billion heads?
The influx of a large amount of capital into the pork breeding industry will undoubtedly make the pig production capacity reach a new level. However, whether the scale of new breeding reaches about 2 billion heads and whether the market has enough appetite to digest is undoubtedly the focus of market attention. You know, before the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, the largest pig slaughter scale in China was around 700 million.
On September 13 this year, Mu Yuan shares disclosed the plan for opening convertible bonds. The total amount of funds to be raised does not exceed10 billion yuan, which will be invested in pig breeding projects and pig slaughtering projects to repay bank loans and supplement working capital.
Among them, the total investment of pig breeding projects will reach 8.869 billion yuan, and the funds to be raised will reach 565.438 billion yuan, and 23 pig breeding projects will be invested, with a breeding scale of nearly 6.8 million heads; The total investment of the pig slaughtering project is 2.287 billion yuan, and it is planned to raise 654.38+0.9 billion yuan.
On the evening of September 17, Xinxiyi announced that the company plans to increase the capital of Lubang pig breeding business, and plans to build a pig breeding project with an annual output of 400,000 pigs in Tianjin Binhai New Area, a pig breeding project with an annual output of 600,000 pigs in Liangshan Prefecture of Sichuan Province, and a pig breeding project with an annual output of 500,000 pigs in Shijiazhuang of Hebei Province. The investment of the above projects is 65.438+82.6 million yuan. In addition, the company plans to acquire 0/00% equity of five companies, including Tianjin Jason Wu Breeding Pig Co., Ltd., for 654.38+22 million yuan.
It is worth noting that Zheng Da Group, Zhengbang Technology, Dabeinong Group, Aonong Bio, etc. have also issued announcements recently, proposing to build pig farms, acquire enterprises and increase pig breeding business.
Pan Guocheng, director and assistant secretary general of Zhenjiang District Pig Association, Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province, made a speech entitled "Every Busy? According to the reporter of Economic News, according to the expansion plans of Zheng Da Group, Muyuan, Xinxiyi and other large-scale breeding enterprises in pig breeding, the scale of pig breeding projects under construction or to be built in China is expected to reach 2 billion, but this is calculated according to the maximum planned by major companies, and the planned production capacity may not necessarily be converted into actual production.
It should also be noted that even if the above 2 billion breeding preparations can be fulfilled, the ladder will be pulled open because of the unsynchronized layout of the companies, and it is unlikely that 2 billion heads will be released a year.
Pan Guocheng analyzed that in the history of China, the highest annual output was over 700 million. If the slaughter amount reaches 65.438 billion, the price of pigs will not exceed 5 yuan per catty, and pig breeding will be on the verge of loss. Pig enterprises will not expand production, which means that chasing the low price of potatoes will in turn curb the stock.
? Some large-scale aquaculture enterprises, especially listed companies, may raise their share prices when releasing these expansion plans, but it is probably the limit that the final output can reach 40% to 50% of the planned output. ? Pan Guocheng believes that when the pork market exceeds demand, the price of pigs will drop rapidly. As long as it approaches the cost line, pig breeding enterprises will definitely reduce production, and even large enterprises can't afford the risks brought by expanding production.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 20 13 to 20 18, the number of live pigs slaughtered in China was 727.68 million, 749.52 million, 724160,000, 700.74 million, 702.02 million and 693.82 million respectively. The number of live pigs is 478.93 million, 47 1.6 million, 458.03 million, 442.09 million, 44 1.59 million and 428 1.7 million.
It is not difficult to see from the above data that both the number of pigs to be slaughtered and the number of pigs on hand are relatively balanced over the years, but it is difficult to reach the scale of 2 billion pigs in any year.
Feng Yonghui believes that even if the scale of pig breeding can reach 2 billion, it is not a year's data, and exaggerated ingredients will not be eliminated. At present, the domestic pig breeding capacity is increasing, but the phenomenon of 2 billion pigs a year will never appear, otherwise the pig price will become a few dollars per catty. From the historical cycle, once the industry sends out the signal of de-capacity, it will quickly curb the expansion of pig raising scale.
Feng Yonghui said that after the African swine fever epidemic, huge dividends appeared in the transitional market, which made many listed companies see the opportunity and began to expand their production capacity crazily. Now it seems that with the large-scale expansion of production capacity, the future risks of enterprises will greatly increase, which is likely to accelerate the arrival of the trough of the pig cycle and push the whole industry to a loss.
Countering cost advantage: who will become the leading pig enterprise?
Who is swimming naked after the low tide! If pig breeding enterprises really continue to expand their production capacity, those enterprises that are difficult to control their costs are likely to pay an unbearable price when the market price falls predictably in the future.
Some securities analysts believe that anyone who raises pigs can make money, because the pig price is now at a high level under the effective control of the African swine fever epidemic. After the pig price fell, it was low-cost to make money and high-cost to lose money, but there were also losses in the whole industry.
? The best day for pig enterprises should be this year, and the future will probably become more and more sad. ? The above analysts believe.
In the pig cycle, once the pig price goes through the peak and continues to decline, the industry will inevitably fall into the stage of fighting for technology and cost. In the cost of pig breeding, the procurement of large enterprises has a slight advantage, but its administrative costs in all aspects will be high.
Some insiders made a data comparison for reporters: at present, the cost of pig breeding and the cost of family farmers can reach about 7~8 yuan/kg; Foreign capital has recently set foot in pig breeding industry. Considering the use of new high-end equipment, the cost of enterprises is generally around 7.5 yuan/kg; Some existing large-scale breeding enterprises rely on the original pig farms for breeding, and the cost is about 7 yuan/kg. However, if pig-raising enterprises rent pigsty to raise pigs, the cost will be higher, exceeding 8 yuan/kg.
Xia Chenfeng introduced that compared with the last pig cycle, the current cost of raising pigs has increased, including feed costs and biosafety costs brought about by African swine fever epidemic prevention. Since the beginning of this year, according to the survey, the cost of pig slaughter is 100~300 yuan/head, which is higher than before the African swine fever epidemic, and the increase cost of different breeding levels is quite different.
Roughly speaking, since September, 2020, although the national pig price has dropped slightly, it has remained at a high level above 34 yuan/kg. According to the total cost of Cinnamomum camphora Ⅰ 17 yuan/kg and the average slaughter weight120kg, the average profit per head can reach more than 2,000 yuan.
Under the higher profit, the cost difference of a pig around 200 yuan will not bring much influence to different breeding enterprises, but once the pig cycle ends, the pig price continues to fall, even approaching the unified cost line, the pig breeding industry will inevitably be turbulent.
During the interview, all the interviewees emphasized that the technical threshold of the pig industry is high, and the industry barriers are finally manifested in the control and breeding costs of African swine fever.
In recent years, in addition to the rapid expansion of the production capacity of enterprises in the original pig breeding industry, some real estate companies, Internet companies and other capitals have poured in, and the threshold of the pig breeding industry has not really been reflected.
Pan Guocheng said that many capitals are now caught in the pig breeding industry, mainly because of high profits. Even if a certain number of pigs are lost because of the epidemic, they will still make a profit in the end. However, in the next three to five years, a number of enterprises in the industry will not survive.
Pan guocheng said:? Now many people who don't know how to raise pigs come in. Once the price of pigs falls below 8 yuan/Jin, they can't hold on. In fact, when amateurs come in, the cost of raising pigs is still quite high and the risks are high. If they don't master the systematic technology, their cost control can't even compare with family farms. ?
In the interview, the reporter learned that there are some concerns in the industry about foreign capital falling into the pig industry, and that these enterprises will be the first to be unable to hold back when the pig cycle is gradually coming to an end.
According to the analysis of open source securities, looking forward to the downward cycle of pig prices, investment-related stocks should focus on suitable pig enterprises with extreme cost advantages and management capabilities and expected high-speed expansion of production capacity. At present, pig enterprises are expected to achieve long-term growth with perfect biosafety system and management, and the expansion of output is certain, and the path of cost reduction is clear.
Confronting structural changes: large enterprises enter and small retail investors retreat?
Since the current pig cycle, the market pattern of pig breeding has changed with the naked eye, that is, the proportion of large-scale breeding enterprises in the market has been rising, and the factors of African swine fever epidemic have further accelerated the pace of this change.
In February last year, 65438, Wang Junxun, the second inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced at the press conference that there are 26 million pig farmers in China, 99% of whom are small and medium-sized farmers with an annual output of less than 500, which is the objective status quo of China's pig industry. From the perspective of pork production, pig scale farming accounts for nearly 50%.
In recent ten years, the scale of pig breeding in China has gradually increased. Affected by African swine fever in the early stage, the scale of pig breeding was further improved.
According to the data of China Merchants Bank Research Institute, the proportion of large-scale pig breeding (more than 500 pigs) in China was 26% in 2007, and then it increased to 46% in 20 17 year after year.
In April of 20 16, the Ministry of Agriculture clearly put forward in the National Development Plan for Pig Production (20 16~2020)? The proportion of scale has steadily increased, and large-scale farmers have become the main body of pig breeding? Development goals, and? Develop standardized scale farming? The main task, and put forward that by 2020, the proportion of aquaculture with more than 500 heads nationwide will reach 52%. According to the Proposal on Stabilizing Pig Production and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading issued in September, 20 19, the scale rate of pig breeding will reach about 58% by 2022 and over 65% by 2025.
Xia Chenfeng believes that it is a good opportunity for the development of large enterprises to be affected by the African swine fever epidemic in the early stage. Because of the big gap in the pork market, the current policy is also actively guiding large-scale development, while small and medium-sized retail investors are afraid to come in.
In addition, the current strict environmental protection requirements, high piglet prices and other factors further increase the cost and risk of raising pigs for small retail investors, so it is a good opportunity for large enterprises to expand their markets.
This situation has also been confirmed in some places.
Yu Xin (pseudonym), who is engaged in pork sales in a city in central China, asked "Every time?" According to the reporter of Economic News, before 20 19, there were a wide range of channels for purchasing pork by themselves, and many small retail pig farmers were pork suppliers. However, since the second half of 20 19, few small retail investors have been able to provide pork stably, and the main procurement channel has become a large pig breeding enterprise in other provinces.
In this regard, Pan Guocheng introduced that he also had long-term exchanges with retail pig farmers. Retail investors will not have long-term consideration on whether to re-raise, because they are? A boat? , the so-called? Is the boat small enough to turn around? . From the collective point of view this year, the scale of retail refinancing is still small. Take Shaoguan, Guangdong as an example. Since the beginning of this year, 20% to 30% of retail investors have resumed production, but they are still advancing steadily.
According to the analysis of China Merchants Bank Research Institute, pig breeding in China is still in the process of scale, and the proportion of scale breeding with more than 500 pigs per year has risen to 46% by 20 17, but the proportion of scale breeding in mature markets in the United States (with more than 0/000 pigs per year) can reach more than 90%, so there is still a lot of room in the medium and long term.
Fighting against industry changes: Can large-scale farming get rid of the pig cycle after taking the lead?
Since 2000, China's pig breeding industry has experienced several pig cycles, including 2002-2006, 2006-20 10, 2012014, 2014-20/kloc-.
In 20 19, affected by the pig cycle, African swine fever epidemic and other factors, the pig production capacity decreased, the market supply was tight, and the pig price showed a trend of low before and then high, which was also considered by the industry to be in a new pig cycle.
Pig cycle is an economic phenomenon, and its cycle trajectory is generally as follows: high meat price-large increase in sow stock-increase in pig supply-decrease in meat price-large number of sows eliminated-decrease in pig supply-increase in meat price. The fundamental reason behind it is that the fluctuation of pork supply and donation leads to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, which eventually leads to the fluctuation of pork price.
With large-scale breeding gradually occupying the dominant position in the pig breeding market, compared with the majority of retail investors, large enterprises are more sensitive to market changes, market information is more transparent, and the breeding scale will be more stable. To some extent, it has prevented many retail investors from falling into or leaving the pig market quickly because of pork price fluctuations.
With the continuous improvement of scale, what changes will occur in the future pig cycle and will it disappear?
Feng Yonghui believes that the pig cycle in China will not disappear. The interaction between pork price and market pig production capacity will change every week. The pig breeding market in China is a fully competitive market, and there is no monopoly or oligopoly at present. Although the proportion of large-scale farming in the United States, Europe and other markets is high, there is still a pig cycle, but the fluctuation is relatively more balanced, not as intense as in the domestic market.
Feng Yonghui explained that the pig market in China is still in a rapid transition period, so when the market plays the role of allocating resources, the signal it sends will stimulate producers more strongly and bring about great changes in production capacity.
After the scale of pig breeding is further developed, there will still be a pig cycle, but the fluctuation range of the cycle will be reduced and the cycle time will be lengthened, which will probably change from the current cycle of three or four years to a cycle of seven or eight years.
Xia Chenfeng also holds a similar view that there is a trend from the last two rounds of pig cycles, that is, the length of pig cycles has become longer. This is mainly because in the past, small and medium-sized free-range households could quickly adjust their output, which led to the rapid start and end of the cycle.
When large-scale farming is promoted, especially after the proportion of large-scale farming exceeds half, because of its large investment and stronger self-adjustment ability, large-scale farming can last longer even if there is a loss in the downward cycle, so the cycle time will be longer than before.
? Even if the scale continues to increase, there will still be competition among enterprises, all enterprises will definitely pursue the maximization of interests, and there will definitely be behaviors that affect the production process, so the supply of the market will not remain balanced and will inevitably fluctuate. ? Xia Chenfeng said that based on this, even if the proportion of large-scale farming increases, the pig cycle still exists and will not disappear.
Reporter's Note | Will the injection of big capital stir? Pig cycle?
This must be good news? Just half a month before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of live pigs dropped from 36 yuan to 34 yuan.
However, as the weather turns cold and traditional festivals such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival are coming, pork consumption will once again fall into the peak season. Many people are worried about whether pork prices will reverse again.
Is the price of pigs going up or down? In essence, it reflects the change of market supply and demand, and the basis of judgment is this round. Pig cycle? Whether it is near the end or not, the important indicators to be considered are the number of sows and the number of pigs.
Under the influence of African swine fever, small-scale farmers were forced to withdraw from the market, and large-scale breeding was vigorously promoted, accounting for half of the country's pig breeding. The number of live pigs and fertile sows in China has increased for 7 consecutive months and 1 1 month, and the signal of increasing pork supply in the market is more clear.
Some insiders suggest that the scale of pig-raising projects under construction or to be built by major domestic pig enterprises will reach 2 billion. Regardless of whether all the above scales can be put into production, the market has basically reached a consensus that the price of pigs will gradually fall in the next two years, and large-scale farming will gradually occupy the leading position in the industry.
When large capital promotes large-scale breeding to quickly occupy the market, will more planned pig raising succeed? Pig cycle? It tends to disappear, and this topic has triggered a new round of confrontation. But what is certain is that the original? Pig cycle? Encouraged by capital, change becomes inevitable. As for how to change, we can wait and see!