However, unlike the embarrassment of the pig market, the piglet market is extremely arrogant.
With the rising price of live pigs, the price of piglets has soared under the good expectation of the market outlook. The newly weaned piglets in some areas have been hyped up to 600 yuan. However, compared with the previous days, with the gradual completion of the progress of farmers' replenishment, the price increase of piglets has narrowed significantly recently, so can the piglet market continue to soar? Will the price of piglets go up? Is there any profit in filling the column at a high price now? We analyze it from the following aspects:
Contradiction: the production capacity has not been completely eliminated, and the government is encouraging pig raising.
Although the production capacity of our pig industry has not been completely completed at present, according to official data, our fertile sows are still above 4 1 10,000, but the government has started the regulation of "stable production".
It is understood that the relevant pig subsidy scheme in Guangdong Province has clearly stipulated that in order to maintain the pig stock in Guangdong Province, the farmers who keep the pig stock unchanged will be subsidized to 200 yuan according to the initially approved data.
The policy of "guaranteeing production capacity" in other regions has also followed suit. Jiangxi arranged a one-time subsidy of 70 million yuan for fertile sows, and Neijiang City, Sichuan Province gave an introduction subsidy that was not lower than that of 300 yuan in principle for newly purchased excellent sows from June to June in 2022. Stimulated by various favorable policies, the production capacity of the live pig market is likely to turn around, which means that the number of live pigs may increase in the second half of the year! In this context, how much can the expectation of a sharp rise in pig prices be fulfilled? # Pig subsidy #
Many pig enterprises stop the construction of pig farm projects and are pessimistic about the future pig price?
It is understood that recently, Mu Yuan is strictly controlling the construction of new pig farms, and the number of fertile sows in Mu Yuan has decreased from 2.8 million at the end of the first quarter of 2022 to 2.6 million now.
Zhengbang also stopped more than 20 pig farm projects to build large-scale pig enterprises, which also shows from the side that the expectations of pig enterprises on the trend of pig prices in the market outlook may not be so good, which is also a signal light for pig farmers!
The prices of corn and soybeans continue to be firm, and it is difficult to reduce the cost of raising pigs.
Let's take a look at the price of feed raw materials needed for raising pigs.
Recently, influenced by a series of international factors, although the price of soybean meal has been adjusted, it has always been firm at around 4,500 yuan/ton. Although domestic policy soybeans are continuously put in, under the influence of the evolving international food crisis and strong domestic market demand, the price of soybean meal is "difficult to rise" and "difficult to fall". You know that the price of 4500 yuan/ton now will be even worse than the price of 3500 yuan/ton two years ago.
# Soy flour #
The same is true of corn. Although the price of corn has been adjusted recently under the influence of the listing of new wheat, the big environment of our corn market this year is strong demand and tight supply, so the price of corn is also "easy to rise but difficult to fall".
Therefore, in terms of the price of feed raw materials, it is difficult to reduce the cost of pig feed this year, which will also squeeze the profits of farmers!
How long can the piglet market prosper?
Based on the above analysis, we know that the pig market will not lose too much production capacity this year. There are still a lot of pigs, and there is no room for a sharp drop in feed prices. The profit margin of pigs is still compressed by the feed end. In this case, if piglets increase again on the basis of 600 yuan, pig farmers will directly dampen the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the stalls. If the stalls are above 600 yuan, the slaughter cost will soar to around 10 yuan, and it will also increase greatly. Pig farmers must not blindly fill the column! # Piggy price #
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