Qiao Zhou, a great scholar in Shu, and even Zhuge Zhan, the son of Zhuge Liang, opposed the Northern Expedition. This has to be said to be an irony. Chen Shou also said in the "Three Kingdoms" that Zhuge Liang fought for several years and achieved nothing. Is the Northern Expedition really useless?
This comes back to a question, why did Zhuge Liang want to explore the North?
There are many reasons for Zhuge Liang's northern expedition, including: realizing political ideals, dispersing internal contradictions between Shu and Han, and enhancing the cohesion of Shu and Han. However, the most important reason is:
The purpose of consuming Cao Wei's resources and strength by means of war is to prevent Cao Wei from recuperating and restoring his strength, so as to delay or prevent Cao Wei from unifying the world and achieve the purpose of preserving the Shu-Han regime.
Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition has several characteristics:
1, slow and steady, risk-free, try to reduce your own losses.
Judging from the situation at that time, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was extremely difficult to succeed. Cao Wei is a unified regime with a wise monarch and a wise minister. It has strong national strength and internal stability. Even a sneak attack can only be used once, and it may not be successful. So Zhuge Liang rejected Wei's meridian valley strategy. Wei Yan's strategy is not only unsuccessful, but also risky. This is not Zhuge Liang's choice, nor does it conform to Zhuge Liang's strategy.
In the five northern expeditions, Zhuge Liang did not suffer much loss, but also gained a lot, except for using Ma Su wrongly for the first time. Even if he withdrew, Zhuge Liang personally broke off, not only his own side was unscathed, but also killed two generals, Xinmeile Co., Ltd. and Zhang He. This is Zhuge Liang's warning.
Therefore, it is the first characteristic of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition to take risks and minimize his own losses, because this is in line with the ultimate goal of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition.
2. Give priority to attacking Longyou, not Chang 'an, the core of Guanzhong.
The important city and command center of Cao Wei in Guanzhong, Longyou and Liangzhou is Chang 'an, and the importance of Chang 'an is equivalent to the capital of Guanzhong. Judging from Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, there was no direct attack on Chang 'an.
For example, the first Northern Expedition attacked five counties in Longyou, the second Northern Expedition attacked Chencang, the third Northern Expedition attacked Wudu County and Yinping County, the fourth Northern Expedition was mainly the confrontation between Qishan and Sima Yi, and the fifth Northern Expedition was the confrontation between Xiegu, Yanxian County and Sima Yi in Wuzhangyuan.
As far as war is concerned, capturing the enemy's core city is the means to win the war, but Zhuge Liang does not attack, also to consume Cao Wei's resources and strength, and not to attack the city and plunder the land.
3. Prepare to extend the Northern Expedition.
Biography of the Three Kingdoms and Zhuge Liang: In the spring of the second year of Qinglong, handsome people showed their martial arts and divided their troops to settle their fields, which was the foundation for their long stay. In 234 AD, Zhuge Liang led the army to perform martial arts and sent troops to open up wasteland as the basis of long-term garrison. Zhuge Liang went to the front line to prepare for the long-term northern expedition. There are few examples in history of preparing for long-term operations at the front. What is Zhuge Liang doing this for?
Of course, it is not to defeat Cao Wei and unify the world, but to pull the army to the front and solve the supply of the front-line troops, thus prolonging the war. Zhuge Liang's army has always been in the front line, and of course Cao Wei's army, which was used to guard against Zhuge Liang, can only accompany him. If Zhuge Liang leads 50,000 to 60,000 troops to the Northern Expedition, Cao Wei will have at least several hundred thousand troops guarding it at the same time.
Hundreds of thousands of people need to eat and drink and prepare for war. This is a huge burden. Although Cao Wei's national strength is strong, it will only make Cao Wei's strength weaker and weaker, not stronger and stronger. The purpose of Zhuge Liang's long-term Northern Expedition was to consume the resources and strength of Cao Wei.
Why must we use war to consume Cao Wei's resources and strength, rather than rest?
Because of the huge gap between the national strength of the two sides.
As far as population is concerned, the population of Shu Han is less than one million. According to the data in 263, the total population of Shu and Han is 940,000, the army is 65,438+10,000, and the number of officials is 40,000. The total population of Cao Wei is almost 4.43 million, the army is almost 400,000, the total population of Dongwu regime is 2.3 million, and the army is almost 200,000.
As far as population is concerned, the population of Cao Wei is more than 4.7 times that of Shu Han. According to this ratio, the labor force of Cao Wei is also 4.7 times that of Shu Han, and the annual population growth is also 4.7 times that of Shu Han. It has been 42 years since the establishment of Shu Han and its demise. Suppose both sides rest and there is no war, what will happen?
It can be considered that the speed of Cao Wei's recuperation is 4.7 times that of Shu Han. For example, if the total grain harvest of Shu Han is 6.5438+0 million A Jin years, the grain harvest of Cao Wei is 4.7 million Jin; If the population of Shu and Han increased by 1 10,000, the population of Cao and Wei increased by 470,000. If the population of Shu and Han increased by 4.2 million in 42 years, the population of Cao and Wei increased by 650,000.
Without the war between Shu Han and Cao Wei, after 42 years, the strength gap between Cao Wei and Shu Han will increase geometrically, and it will get bigger and bigger, and the gap between the two sides may reach more than 10 times. After a few decades, Shu Han will still perish without fighting this battle, and strength is an important reason for the victory of the war. Although there have been many battles in history, judging from the situation of Shu Han and Cao Wei,
On the other hand, if Shu Han does not recuperate, but constantly wage war against Cao Wei, then Cao Wei's consumption will be several times that of Shu Han, which is contrary to the effect of recuperation. For example, Zhuge Liang launched the Northern Expedition and led 50,000 troops. On the other side of Cao Wei, at least 65,438+10,000 people came to guard against Zhuge Liang.
Zhuge Liang consumes 6.5438+10,000 Jin of grain a day and 3 million Jin of grain a month, so Cao Wei consumes 200,000 Jin of grain a day and 6 million Jin of grain a month, which is only the consumption of grain. The number of transport troops providing logistics support for the front-line troops will not be much less than that of the front-line troops, which will increase the tax revenue provided by the people in the rear and lead to more uncertainty within the Cao Wei regime.
For another example, when Guan Yu made a northern expedition to Xiangfan, Hou Yin and Wei developed, and Cao Wei, the generals of Wancheng, rebelled, killed the satrap and shared Cao. Why did they rebel? Historical records record the reason, because the officials and people in Wancheng area could not bear the suffering of Cao Wei's corvee, because there was a war, and the war consumed food. Where does the food come from? As far as the people are concerned, they need to pay more taxes to Cao Wei, which will lead to civil strife.
If both sides recuperate, then the Cao Wei regime will not need to levy such heavy taxes on the people, and it is possible to pay less taxes and reduce the burden on the people. On the one hand, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition can increase the taxes of Cao Wei people, increase the possibility that Cao Wei may cause civil strife, and thus consume Cao Wei's resources and strength, while Cao Wei's consumption is several times that of Shu Han.
Although the war consumed both sides, as long as Zhuge Liang launched the northern expedition, the consumption of Cao Wei always existed, and it was much greater than that of Shu Han, depending on who could persist to the end. Zhuge Liang destroyed Cao Wei through war, and at that time Cao Wei was not only the enemy of Shu Han, but also Sun Quan of Soochow, Sun of Liaodong and Wu Huan, Xiongnu, Xianbei and others in the northwest.
Cao Wei also needs to divide some national strength to deal with Sun Quan, Gong and the conference semifinals in the northwest, which increases the pressure on Cao Wei. In fact, in Zhuge Liang's era, the pressure of Cao Wei was very great. Zhuge Liang's first Northern Expedition, Wei Mingdi and Cao Rui personally took command in Chang 'an, which shows the importance of Cao Rui.
Zhuge Liang, on the other hand, searched for the flaws and mistakes of Cao Wei in a series of northern expeditions. Once Cao Wei was at war for years, civil strife was caused by exorbitant taxes, or internal crisis was caused by years of war, that was Zhuge Liang's opportunity. Zhuge Liang blocked Cao Wei's national luck with years of war.
Zhuge Liang himself relied on his ability to govern the country and made up for the lack of national strength of Shu and Han. Therefore, Zhuge Liang solved domestic problems on his own despite opposition during the Northern Expedition. By Jiang Wei's time, there was no such talent as Zhuge Liang who was good at governing the country, so there was opposition in China.
Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition can be regarded as a long-term strategy for Wei to be exhausted, depending on who can't hold on first, who reveals flaws first and who makes mistakes first. If Zhuge Liang takes a rest, he will not only fail to keep up with the development of Wei, but also have a series of side effects.
For example, not fighting and resting for many years will lead to the lack of actual combat in the troops. Judging from the average life expectancy in ancient times, more than ten years is a generation. Once that generation of soldiers who fought in the war died, later soldiers stopped fighting. Without actual combat experience, the combat effectiveness will be significantly reduced. Once one day, Cao Wei attacked Shu Han on a large scale, and Shu Han would perish in World War I.
This is a factor that reduces the combat effectiveness of soldiers. In addition, for the Shu-Han regime, once there was no foreign war like the Northern Expedition, its internal disputes and corruption began. Especially after Zhuge Liang's death, Shu Han will fall into endless internal struggle. At the end of Shu Han Dynasty, even eunuch Huang Hao came out to play politics. What did Zhuge Zhan say before he died? First, he couldn't stop Jiang Wei's northern expedition. Second, he can't stop Huang Hao from playing politics. This is an internal struggle.
Just look at the later Wu Dong political power and Cao Wei political power. Wu Dong's minister of electricity abolished the emperor, and the emperor killed the minister of electricity. Finally, a tyrant Sun Hao was made emperor, and Cao Wei took over the power of Cao Shi directly from Sima Shi. There were three rebellions in Huainan, China. With the governance level of Liu Chan, how good can Shu Han be?
Without war, the ruling class of Shu Han would be lax, the domestic singing and dancing would be peaceful and indulged in superficial tranquility, but the people might not be able to live and work in peace and contentment, and taxes would have to be paid. In the late Shu and Han dynasties, there was a shortage of talents to govern the country, politics began to fall into darkness, and villains began to appear. If there were no foreign wars like the Northern Expedition, the demise of Shu Han would be mentioned 20 years later, so Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was correct.
There are many reasons for the demise of Shu Han. Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was different from Jiang Wei's. Zhuge Liang's northern expedition was able to govern the country and the home front by himself. During Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition, there were no talents in charge of the rear area, and the people were poor and tired, so there were many people who opposed it.
The main reasons for the demise of Shu Han are: the national strength continued to weaken, the emperor was fatuous, and internal talents were scarce. Don't blame Zhuge Liang for the demise of Shu Han. It has been 29 years since Zhuge Liang died, and Zhuge Liang does not have to bear unlimited responsibility. Three generations of Zhuge Liang's grandparents and grandchildren died for their country, which deserves the respect of Shu Han people. Zhuge Liang dedicated his life to Shu Han and died.
In 263 AD, the national strength of Shu Han was weak, and the emperor Liu Chan was even more fatuous. He even reused eunuchs like Huang Hao. Even Jiang Wei wrote that he needed to guard against Cao Wei's national emergency information, and he also needed divination decisions. This is just a joke. The supreme power of a country to process information is actually this means. Can this regime not perish?
In the late Shu-Han Dynasty, China was extremely short of talents. It is originally a state, so it is impossible to reuse Yizhou locals. There are no available people at all, and there is no continuous talent. Shu Han was born weak, while Cao Wei was a talented person. Zhong Hui and Wargo are military wizards, and Si Mazhao is also a military and political talent with super powers. No one was available, which naturally led to the demise of Shu Han, but it was not caused by the Northern Expedition.