According to the analysis of pig price data, at present, the average price of standard pigs in China has fallen below 7 yuan/kg, and the price has dropped to 6.93 yuan/kg, and the price level of live pigs has reached a new low. Although pigs used to sell for 7 yuan, farmers still had a certain profit margin, but now the market of corn and soybean meal is rising, which has also caused a sharp increase in fattening costs. Now, the loss of self-propagating and self-supporting head has reached 294.36 yuan.
In the past two years, the trend of the pig cycle has been obviously broken. Due to the mask problem and the crazy expansion of group pig enterprises, most retail pig farms are "losing more and earning less". However, for the group pig enterprises, the profit of pig hair exceeded10 billion last year!
It is understood that in 2022, the average annual slaughter scale of pigs in China was as high as 699.5 million, of which the slaughter scale of the top 20 pig enterprises accounted for more than 20%, while the annual slaughter volume of "pig hair" was 6 1.20 1.000, occupying the top spot in the domestic pig industry, with a market share of 8.74%, a year-on-year increase of 52.
According to public information, the revenue level of pig grass reached 1220 ~ 127 billion yuan last year, and the net profit level reached120 ~1400 million yuan, up 73.8~ 102.8% year-on-year. It can be seen that pig grass was gradually established in the development process of pig industry collectivization. In the same period, the average annual profit of Wenwen was 4.8 ~ 5.3 billion yuan, which is not an order of magnitude. However, for other pig enterprises, Tianbang, Tang Renshen and New Hope are still at a loss stage!
Now in early February, the trend of pig price after the year is not optimistic. Due to the backward pig production capacity, some pig farms still have backlog and overlap after the year, and the consumer market has entered the off-season. The poor delivery of fresh pork, the relatively loose supply of live pigs, and the continuous bottoming of pig prices in the downward range have also aggravated the further escalation of the loss of breeding profits. In terms of pig hair, according to the news released earlier, the total cost of live pigs in Muyuan is 7.75 yuan/kg, which is also this stage. But for other pig enterprises, the slaughter cost is still 8.5~9 yuan/kg, while in the autotrophic mode, the slaughter cost of retail pig farms is nearly 7.5~8 yuan/kg. It can be seen that the current pig market has entered the stage of industrial loss!
In 2023, there is still pressure on the release of pig production capacity, and the supply of pigs is relatively loose. According to the official news, at the end of April 2022, the number of fertile sows bottomed out in stages, and from May to June, the number of fertile sows increased month by month. According to the growth cycle of live pigs, the supply pressure of live pigs will gradually increase from February to March in 2022.
Years later, consumer demand entered the off-season. Although the domestic economy has picked up, catering consumption is expected to increase, but compared with the increasingly loose supply of pigs, pig prices will still be in the bottom shock stage!
However, at present, due to the low price of pigs, the slaughterhouse's enthusiasm for wind-cut storage has improved. Some hip tips before and after low prices are mainly fresh, and ribs are mostly wind-cut storage. The enthusiasm of slaughterhouses for bargain-hunting has gradually picked up and superimposed, and there is still a phenomenon of secondary education in the market. Personally, although the pig price shows signs of bottoming out in the short term, there is insufficient room for the pig price to rise, and retail pig farms will still face the pressure of periodic losses!
So, where is the way out for retail pig farms? Personally, if we can't determine the strength of the pig price, we can only make more efforts in cost, reduce costs and increase efficiency, otherwise it will be an important risk to increase the pressure on retail investors. On the one hand, further reduce the fattening cost, manage pig farms more scientifically and effectively, avoid the phenomenon of "small non-"and reduce the decapitation rate of pigs; On the other hand, keep a good selling rhythm, avoid the phenomenon of betting on the market, avoid selling risks in time, and avoid the phenomenon of "selling at a high level and selling at a low level"!
The price of pigs has been falling, and the loss of farming has become more and more serious. Pig hair income10 billion is a little more. Where is the outlet for retail pig farms? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are for reference only!