Wen | Lin
Edit | Chu Ming
Operation | Linta
What is the concept of RMB 33 billion? It can be the annual GDP of many counties in China, or the sum of the per capita disposable income of 750,000 ordinary citizens last year. But at the same time, it can also be the total amount of funds managed by a 35-year-old young man-Cai Songsong, the fund manager of Nuoan Fund Company, and his two Public Offering of Fund Nuoan Growth and Nuoan Hexin, which was RMB 33 billion by the end of the first quarter. At the peak last year, the figure was 4 1 100 million.
In the past year, the fund market has ushered in a long-lost prosperity. The rising net worth and rising income have created a number of online celebrity funds and well-known fund managers, including E Fund, Julun in Central Europe, Dong in Xingquan, etc ... But the most discussed one is probably Cai Songsong in Nuoan.
We interviewed Cai Songsong twice in March and May this year. Different from the glamorous imagination of the fund manager, Cai Songsong looks like an ordinary white-collar worker, wearing sportswear and a pair of big glasses. He works near Beijing International Trade Center and takes the same elevator to and from work with us. Because of his work, he turns in his mobile phone at work and likes running after work. Obviously, after long-term exercise, he can keep fit.
He explained to us the logic of questioning his "gambling" and "gambling"-he/kloc-was admitted to the juvenile class of China University of Science and Technology at the age of 0/5, and then went to study undergraduate, master and doctor. He spent 65,438+04 years studying computers and chips. He has a deep understanding of chips and firmly believes that the semiconductor industry has a bright future. But at the same time, he suggested that each investor should allocate different types of funds in his asset allocation portfolio, and when you expect a fund to have super-high returns, it also means that you have to bear the corresponding investment risks and possible principal losses.
We also talked about how a young man feels about managing tens of billions of assets, and how to adjust and face when the market fluctuates violently. And as an investor, how should every ordinary person treat investment, how to know the difference between each fund, how to allocate assets reasonably, and how to fight against the human nature of chasing high and killing low.
Talk about hot search
Person of the year: Have you read the hot search and online comments about Nuoan in recent months?
Cai Songsong: Yes, I'm not shy about this. Generally speaking, if you look at the comment area of ant wealth, sometimes people will say, why don't you sell it after you have fallen like this today? This stock is too bad for you to hold. But to be honest, such a suggestion has violated my principle of "industry trend investment". I value the high prosperity of the track and tend to dig deep into leading stocks from the industrial level and make long-term industrial trend investment. In the long run, short-term interference factors will not change the prosperity of science and technology track, but with my major, I choose the core leaders and excellent companies in the industry, hoping to accompany them to grow.
People today: Sometimes when you look at the fund discussion forum, you will find that many people's languages are very young, and you can see at a glance that they are young people.
Cai Songsong: Yes, I think it is an inevitable phenomenon brought about by the gradual rejuvenation of investors and the widespread popularity of the Internet. Not only now, but also in the future.
Today's people: Online, you posted that "Don't call me Manager Cai if you make money, but call me Vegetable Dog if you lose money." Did you send it?
Cai Songsong: No, no, I didn't answer or speak once. That's obviously p's. He even got his name wrong, and he did it on purpose. If it is his real name, he may be investigated for legal responsibility. Write a different name, people are fine, but we don't have to respond to this matter.
People of the day: Later, there even appeared a vegetable dog hand. Do you know?
People of the day: But does it really have no effect on you?
People of the Day: Weibo had your support club before, such as the phenomenon that fund managers became stars or network celebrities. what do you think?
Cai Songsong: I think its biggest premise is that the whole market has relative returns and even excess returns. These star products and star fund managers were born in this basic process. If the market suddenly falls, it is the bottom, and whoever buys will lose. Do you think anyone will say?
This also reflects another phenomenon, that is, capitalization of funds. I have seen a statistic before. Head fund managers who manage more than 30 billion yuan account for 30% to 40% of the total number of active stock funds in China. In this case, it is natural that head fund companies or fund products are sought after. But what will happen in the future depends more on the heat of the entire capital market.
People today: Just like these days, it's really not like before, and it's no longer a hot search every day.
Cai Songsong: Yes, have you noticed that? Everyone is saying that it is often difficult to make money when buying funds. Actually, I hope it's the present state. When people gradually care less and can treat investment normally, then I can concentrate more on the investment itself.
Person of the year: It is said on the Internet that you have a 70 million year-end bonus. Is it true?/You don't say.
Cai Songsong: No, no, that algorithm is very simple and rude. At first glance, it is wrong. It's all subjective speculation. I don't know this man either.
People of the day: So your year-end bonus is actually a secret salary?
Cai Songsong: Right.
Cai songsong
Talking about managing nearly 40 billion yuan
What is a fund manager's day like?
Cai Songsong: Every morning starts with the morning meeting. The morning meeting was held before the market opened at 9: 30, and everyone sat together to sort out the important industry trends in the past day and discuss future investment decisions. It closes from 9: 30 to 3: 00 pm, which is trading time. Will change positions, reduce or increase holdings. There will also be sellers' analysts to roadshow and talk about industry trends. After the closing ceremony, there will generally be some internal discussions, external exchanges and research. It is my daily job to analyze the announcements of key subscription companies after work.
People of the day: What is the main purpose of staring at the plate from 9: 30 to 3: 00 pm? Because in fact, your fund rarely transfers?
Cai Songsong: Keeping an eye on the market is one thing. Although I only do this sector at present, we need to look at what is happening in the whole market and what is happening in each sector. Through some ups and downs, we can feel what expectations the market is reflecting and at what stage. That's all that matters. As for the rise and fall of a single stock you hold, you should look at it in a longer time. Many times, it is more difficult to remain unchanged than to change.
People today: You are in charge of nearly 40 billion assets, and many people will be curious. How do you feel?
Cai Songsong: There are actually two concepts here. One is absolute income, and the other is relative income. The absolute return is how much money you earned today, which is what individual investors are most concerned about. But fund managers may be more concerned about the rise and fall of net worth. For example, if you add a point today, you manage 200 million yuan, you also add a point, you manage 20 billion yuan, and you also add a point, not that I manage 20 billion yuan. If I lose one point today, I will lose 200 million, which is psychologically unbearable. This is the ecology of Public Offering of Fund.
People today: But from the very beginning, managing 300 million to managing nearly 40 billion, the mentality is definitely different.
People of the day: What is the impact cost?
Cai Songsong: It won't be raised or lowered when you buy it. This is what we need to avoid most. Otherwise, if you buy a stock, according to the model analysis, its expected rate of return is 50%, but the impact cost is high. By the time you get it in place, it has already increased by 20%. When it reaches your target price, you have to sell it, selling it for 20%. How much money can you earn? It may even be a loss.
People today: So there is also a saying that when a fund manager manages billions, the rate of return may be very good, but when it reaches tens of billions, the result is not so good.
Cai Songsong: Scale is the killer of net worth, which is an objective law. When you earn money when you are very young, it is easy to lock in the income. But if the scale is large, what you do is not such an investment, and the impact cost of selling is very high. But it's okay with me. My shareholding cycle is very long, the turnover rate is very low, and the shareholding concentration is also very high. I will hold a company that I see clearly and has long-term logic in the future.
Today's people: But if you hold a heavy position in an industry, it can be said that it is a value investment. Some people will say that you are gambling?
Cai Songsong: The road to value investment is simple to say but not easy to do.
There is no denying that manager growth funds will be more radical. And growth funds's manager pays more attention to the explosive power of the industry. Although it will increase by 20% or 10% this year, after a new product comes out, it will double or triple next year. But often you need more certificates, repeated analysis and judgment, investigation and demonstration, because the sustainability of this product is uncertain.
People today: What if you find that the whole industry is really in chaos and you are investing in this industry?
Cai Songsong: Then you have to check it. If there is an inflection point in the prosperity of this industry, you should objectively evaluate your choice and find the next industry with higher prosperity. I have always been optimistic about the high-quality core assets of the high-prosperity track. At present, the chip industry is at the starting point of high prosperity, but choosing the chip industry is different.
202 1 Q 1 before Noah grew up 10. Graphics/network
Talk about ups and downs
Person of the year: In the past two years, the growth of Nuoan has fluctuated greatly. Is there a moment that impressed you?
Cai Songsong: Its scale first rose in 20 19, but I actually experienced a lot in 2020. In 2020, my net worth breakthrough should be two waves. One wave was that 1000 shares fell after the Spring Festival in February, and then the net value soared. At that time, the expectation of global liquidity easing came, so it began to rise. The other wave was July, when the global epidemic was controlled, the expectation of global economic recovery came, and semiconductors also experienced a relatively large market. However, after February last year, it actually experienced a decline of two and a half months and a sideways period at the bottom; I fell last July, and I have hardly got up since then. This is the time when people question and criticize most.
People of the day: When do you doubt yourself the most?
Cai Songsong: It should be March and April last year. At that time, there were waves of unrest, and there were many things to prove, such as what kind of state is the global epidemic? It is an unknown number, just like the US stock market and the global market are also depressed.
People of the day: How did you spend your days then?
Cai Songsong: Every day after the close, we will go to see what the European market is like, and then we will go to see American stocks in the evening. The next day, A shares will start another round of plunge with the world. Wow, it's really ... (Laughter). Because you invested with the industry, the industry was really greatly affected at that time, which is the most essential. For a long time, the whole industry has been very difficult, and I don't know how long it can last. It was not until May and June that the global economy slowly recovered that we saw a little hope and the stock price rose again. On the contrary, I am calm now. I know my industry is booming. In this case, other factors have nothing to do with it.
People of the day: What are your ways to reduce stress?
Cai Songsong: Running, running every day. I started running from 20 18, and the longest running time is from 20 19, including 2020, which is also my way to relieve stress. I run 10 km every day.
People today: Will there be a moment when you suddenly feel better, or will you say?
Cai Songsong: I remember very clearly that one day, when it oversold, it suddenly rebounded. That day, the net value also rose by six or seven points, which was unrealistic, because I still didn't see the trend and state of the whole industry.
People today: Some people will say that a good fund manager has to cross the bull and bear, but you just entered the business and caught up with a good time. How can you say that you are a good fund manager without crossing the bull and bear? Or will the foundation you manage not encounter problems in the future?
Cai Songsong: I really haven't experienced this. I have been a fund manager for two years. I think 20 19 is my big year, and 2020 is actually my cold winter. After all this, I know what I want and how to do it. I will continue to optimize and examine myself and go my own way. These things need time to prove step by step.
People today: Many people say that investment is a good thing to test human weakness. Where do you think your weakness is most likely?
Cai Songsong: The most taboo of investing is to let the stock price rise and fall to influence your judgment. Let's give a simple example. Today, a sector has gone up, and your sector continues to fall. If you follow human nature, you must catch up with the one who has risen well. But the reality is often the opposite. When you buy and chase up, it is probably its high point. This is also difficult for many people to do, and I am trying to do it.
Person of the day: Do you think the chip industry will be devastated in the future?
Cai Songsong: Since the Sino-US trade war, the competition in the chip industry has changed from between companies to between countries. The United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea have made plans to increase their support for the semiconductor industry. Building a semiconductor power has become a science. Only by developing completely independent hard-core technology can we be in an invincible position in the scientific and technological competition. Solving the problem of hard core technology jam is a national strategy and the top priority of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.
My current judgment is that the most difficult time for the industry, one is the comprehensive sanctions and blockade caused by the war on science and technology, and the other is the sudden drop in demand caused by the global epidemic last year. These have all passed. Since the beginning of this year, the stock price has reflected more games. So sometimes the stock price falls and you have to re-examine. The difficult industrial environment in the third and fourth quarters of last year has passed, and the future industrial fundamentals are marginal. I also wrote it in the quarterly report. I think the scissors gap between the high prosperity of the industry and the stock price is getting bigger and bigger, and the darkness before dawn is imminent.
The mixed rate of return of Noah's growth. Figure/Tian Tian Fund Network
Talking about the present situation and the future
Today's people: The two funds you manage, at the peak of 40 billion, are only over 30 billion now.
Cai Songsong: As you know, the fund industry gradually cooled down in February after issuing new products crazily in June 5438+ 10 this year. In March and April, the subscription of new funds was frozen, and the market influence also caused many funds' net value to plummet. The shrinking size of my two funds is mainly caused by the decline in net value.
Person of the year: People joke that you don't operate at all?
Cai Songsong: It is often easier for you to make changes than not to operate. The most important thing about human nature is that it can remain unchanged. When you fall, you must follow human nature and sell it, especially after falling for so long. On the surface, I may rarely operate, and the position of the top ten has not changed much, but behind it is the verification of the industry, which has done a lot of work to grasp the global economy.
People of the day: You talked about profit taking before. Take the growth of Noan as an example. Some people may just be optimistic about semiconductors and not do short-term operations. But more people buy funds to make money, and they will wonder why you are not only profitable. This is also human nature. Do you think the fund manager undertakes this function?
Cai Songsong: Actually, there is a saying in the market that short-term optimization is often not long-term optimization. If you buy a stock, you will have a feeling that the stock has gone up well. Why did it start to fall just after I bought it? Everyone realizes that when the price rises well, in fact, more smart people have already harvested the main rising waves. If you go in again, it's full of your opponent's plates, and everyone else sells them, so you come. There are also many people who will say that your position can't outrun ETF or which stock, but I am more interested in the core companies that can really run out in the next five to ten years. For some small companies with good prosperity now, I may not participate in this game.
The development of chip industry is a long-term process. In order to get the dividend of industrial development, what you need is to accompany the top quality core companies to grow for a long time.
People today: Some people think that the most important thing for fund managers is to control risks and not to cause particularly big losses to investors. Everyone is responsible for buying stocks, and buying funds means entrusting money to you. If you lose money, he will feel that he has not managed well. Do you think it is important to control risks?
Cai Songsong: No one can fall less than others and rise much more than others.
People today: But human nature is often the case, and people will hope that fund managers can do it.
Cai Songsong: I believe that everyone will gradually understand that people who buy me actually value my excess income, and more importantly, the product direction. When the industry fluctuates greatly in the early stage, it will be more uncomfortable, so it may be necessary to wait for the future industry to mature and the main rising wave will really come.
Person of the day: so when he realizes that he has excess income, he actually has to realize that he may also take excessive risks?
Cai Songsong: That's for sure.
The citizens joked that they were raised by Noah's Growth Church. Graphics/network
Talk about yourself.
Person of the day: Do you own stocks or funds?
Cai Songsong: You can't invest in stocks, which is the requirement of the company. But we can buy funds. More of my assets are actually growing in Nuoan, all in my own fund, which is disclosed in the annual report and can be seen.
People of the day: So you only bought your own fund?
Cai Songsong: I only buy my own.
Person of the year: In fact, ordinary people may invest in different places, but what is your investment view on fund managers?
Cai Songsong: Everyone has a different proportion. In fact, I don't have much wealth now, mostly in real estate. If my children have to go to school, there will be some pressure in the school district.
People of the day: Will you allocate your own assets?
Cai Songsong: Yes, there is no deliberate configuration. Naturally, it is. When you talk about buying other people's funds, I actually want to buy growth-oriented funds. If I grow up, I will buy my own. Since you insist on this thing and let others follow you, how can you have no confidence?
People today: We are still curious. If you are in charge of such a huge amount of money, will your view of money be different from that of ordinary people?
Cai Songsong: I don't really have much money. For myself, what I can do now is actually to protect my family life. As for what I can get, or how much the year-end bonus is, I can get what I deserve, and I didn't think too much.
Person of the day: Do you have any other hobbies besides investing?
Cai Songsong: I may be less. I prefer sports, fitness and running. These things will be more. Fitness or running can not only give people some physical changes, but also be a great support for the spirit.
People of the day: Are you crazy?
Cai Songsong: This is less, I am more stable. Sometimes the net value of the fund is crazy, really happy, very happy, but it fluctuates greatly, and soon you will have a clear understanding of yourself.
Person of the Year: Aren't you worried that the situation of the whole industry, including ranking, will affect your KPI or year-end award?
People of the day: You can hold your breath, but how long can this industry give a fund manager to verify?
Cai Songsong: I see what you mean. This is also a problem that many Public Offering of Fund managers have to face. Many publicly offered fund managers are ranked once a year and assessed once a year. By the time the industrial opportunity comes, you may have been laid off. But the company still supports me and lets me continue to do it according to my investment philosophy and framework. Noan also attached great importance to the long-term performance of fund managers and evaluated the investment performance in the past five years, three years and this year.
People of the day: Have you ever prepared for the worst? What if your fund has been sideways at the bottom?
Cai Songsong: Then check it carefully and continue to do your work. In fact, it is still the same sentence. Investment is the purest thing. You just need to follow the market and industry and see the most essential things.
Cai Songsong is in the office.
Risk warning: The materials are the opinions of Nuoan Fund, not as investment advice.
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